Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

I spoke too soon yesterday in my triplog as my wife sent video of Fountain Creek in our back yard which is usually about 3 feet wide and maybe a foot deep and clear. It is muddy red and running extremely fast. The horse stalls on the other side of the creek are flooded as well as their entire yard. There are several properties west of us that are at the creek level. Our house is a couple hundred feet from the creek and the water rushing is pretty audible. The neighbors yard is clearly flooded below. There has been no rain at our house, but obviously our watershed is getting hit. We have two large flat terraces and our basement is probably 30 feet above the creek level. The water is generally not even visible from the deck where the video was taken. The 24 is closed in both directions.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf0Nnt9WoWw

[big_load]

@MtnBart01
Flooding in your area has made the NYC nightly news with great regularity all summer. Stay safe!

[sneakySASQUATCH]

@big_load
I'm down in La. for work since it always happens when I'm down here. I guess one of the houses upstream has already been pushed off its foundation. Now with the Black Forest Burn scar as well I guess they are having pretty bad flooding in the Springs on the NE side as well as Manitou.

[azbackpackr]

White Mountains forecast for the weekend, something like 3 more inches of rain, on top of who knows how many already. It is unbelievably soggy up here. Great weather if you happen to be a duck.

[Jim]

Well, it will be interesting to see how the storms play out and whether or not the totals add up as forecast. 2 inches of rain, and potentially widespread rain like a winter low, would put Flag over for August. Might not work out, though, as I recall a Labor Day Weekend system very similar to this one, that died out and did nothing in September of 2006. Can't say I'm jealous, as it has been rather moist over here. The gramma grass prairies from I-40 south of Sante Fe and down to Duran and Corrizozo were lush and green, with the tanks full in many locations. Don't really want an end to summer, but I could live with an early end to Monsoon Season. Say, September 2nd?

Pretty nice Arizona had the August break. Seems like all you've had over there is rain since July started.

[chumley]

It might not survive the coming tropical deluge

I think the tropical deluge has been oversold for the central and eastern part of the state. The Lower Colorado River and places like Joshua Tree might get nailed, but I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of the state. I suspect it will still rain some, but not anything particularly noteworthy.

[SuperstitionGuy]

I now understand an Arizona weather forecast for a 50 % chance of rain.

It falls 50 % of the way to the ground and then evaporates.

[azbackpackr]

Oh, please. Quit talking through your muffler. You are not IN eastern Arizona. Why don't you just come on up here and see for yourself? Be sure to bring mud boots and an umbrella.

This is just like people who have never done anything in Yuma but drive through there in July trying to tell me what it's like there in January, while I'm actually LIVING there. Phoenicians are so darned provincial, they think the state revolves around their weather, their climate, blah blah blah.

[chumley]

Oh, please. Quit talking through your muffler.

If only I actually had a muffler!

I'm glad to hear it's soggy over there. Sorry you are sick of it. I have just been reading forecasts and looking at resulting precipitation reports and current radar. I stand by my assertion that the current tropical wave has been overstated for the eastern 2/3rds of Arizona.

[azbackpackr]

I haven't read a newspaper, looked at forecasts, watched TV or otherwise paid any attention to the news lately. All I know is it won't stop raining, people are getting flooded in their homes and businesses, and the inside of my house is cold and damp. If I want my lawn to look halfway nice it has to be mowed twice a week right now, but there is never a time when it is dry enough to mow it. The roof has developed a leak, right when I have just put the house on the market.

People who like living in the Northwest would probably be happy here now, but I have never been anything but a California girl. Give me dry and sunny and I'm happy.

[PatrickL]

I now understand an Arizona weather forecast for a 50 % chance of rain.

It falls 50 % of the way to the ground and then evaporates.

I'm going to repeat this at least 3 times in the next 24 hours.

[Jim]

Well, I can't speak for the Arizona weather reports on TV, but the forecast QPF I was looking at steadily shifted the majority of the precipitation to the western side of the state, and into California and Nevada, and now they basically have nothing forecast for eastern areas like Eagar. They had forecast rain earlier before the weekend, and the radar totals in those places were actually impressive, so I think they have done well. Phoenix routinely gets less than then surrounding areas, so using it as a gauge is always a poor idea. And I have to agree with Liz, Phoenix is a poor representative of the state overall. SE AZ had a good amount, too. Like many things, tropical storms and tropical infused monsoon storms are hard to predict. If they were easy, no one would have driven from Tampa, FL to Orlando, FL in 2004 and fled the predicted land fall location of Hurricane Charley only to go directly into the path of eye of Charley as it passed over central Florida. I don't know what I'll be doing, but I look forward to the end of monsoon activity. Other than the healthy vegetation, it is my least favorite time of year to endure, after the first few exciting storms.

[azbackpackr]

Raining in Flag, too.

[chumley]

The tropical system definitely brought moisture into the state. But I do believe the rain totals were well below the forecasts. There were Flash Flood Watches issued days in advance with forecasts of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Even PHX was supposed to get .5-.75" with news outlets reporting urban flooding likely. There was an "80% chance" in the forecast.

Looking at the totals, most of the valley got less than 1/10th, and even the favored mountain regions of near Prescott, Sedona, and Flag ended up with generally .5-.75. There was definitely some rain out there. Just nothing close to what they were forecasting.

I have no proof of this, but my belief is that the computer models simply don't have enough data on handling an influx of tropical moisture into Arizona. It happens only once or twice a year, and they just can't accurately predict what will happen.

I suppose it is better to err on the side of caution, warning people that a deluge is possible rather than have it be a surprise. But eventually the boy who cried wolf will make these dire predictions of large rain events fall on deaf ears.

[mazatzal]

@chumley
I completely agree. Most of the rain tracked to the west through AZ. Payson got 2/10th's despite prediction of heavy rain.
Like others we cancelled our plans I'm deaf now. I'm getting the blame and being called lousy weatherman! :guilty:

[azbackpackr]

Still raining in Flag, off and on:

Check this out:
Havasu Creek, today: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/uv?cb ... o=09404115

Paria: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/uv/?s ... 0065,00060

LCR at Winslow:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/uv/?s ... 0065,00060

San Juan River at Bluff:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ut/nwis/uv/?s ... 0300,63680

[beterarcher]

@mazatzal
pass it on to the ones that get the six figure salary to get it right less than half the time. ;)

[azbackpackr]

I don't know about Payson, but the San Juan went up to 10,000. It must really have rained like hell somewhere. At 10,000 you are gonna lose boats off the beach, if it comes up like that at night, after it is normally running at 500! And I expect to hear about some kind of flood at Supai, after I saw it went up to close to 18,000, when it normally runs at about 150!

Not to mention the LCR coming up like that. Just wait until it hits Grand Falls!

There has been some serious rain somewhere in Arizona (and Colorado/New Mexico), folks, just maybe not on your block.

[big_load]

but the San Juan went up to 10,000. It must really have rained like hell somewhere. At 10,000 you are gonna lose boats off the beach,

As narrow as it is in Mexican Hat, the hotel must be getting wet. It wouldn't take much to wash that bridge away, either.

[outdoor_lover]

Just lost power in South Scottsdale. Not much Rain though.