Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Rain, rain, rain, rain, rain, rain. Hasn't stopped in at least 6 hours.

Do we have any roofers amongst the HAZZERs? I've had the roof replaced, and the new roof fixed several times too. Always leaks in the same place, although for the past 5 years it was fine. But this summer it has started leaking again.

[cactuscat]

It's a good day (and week) to be selling rain gear at the Canyon!

[cactuscat]

Had one of our best days all year yesterday!
Lots of TNF rain jackets sold.

[azbackpackr]

I was at Lake Powell and at the Ferry (Lee's Ferry, that is: THE Ferry) and it had been raining everywhere, but I dodged the raindrops. I launched my new-to-me kayak for a few minutes on the (very ugly) lake (I had never been there before, my god, it's ugly, at least near the dam area, although I am sure if you paddle up the lake a few miles it improves). There was a huge storm in the distance, likely over by Grand Canyon. I left since I didn't feel well, and it was very crowded with Labor Day revelers. I went to the Ferry to camp, where I knew it would be peaceful and quiet. I drove the "new" road, 89T, both directions. On the way back, only a few hours after I had gone up it, they already had heavy equipment out to remove mudslides from the brand-new roadway! It's a nice road, by the way.

[Jim]

The Phoenix area, and Tucson and southern Arizona, were not the winners of August's rain, but northern Arizona and Flagstaff did very well. Flag reports 4.85 inches, so well over a foot for July and August. Looks like a lot of northern and western Arizona got a lot of rain over the last week. I wonder how September will do, as it can really go either way.

I watched a youtube video from the Grand Junction NWS office which is obviously western Colorado oriented, but it talks about a surge of monsoon moisture for them this coming week. Following that, and starting around the 9th, their models indicate a trough would start to push south causing dry westerly flow over Colorado. That can really mean totally different things for AZ and NM, but it points to the end of the monsoon this year. Still far out, but last September by the 15th, Autumn was in full swing in the Sawatch around Mount Harvard and Leadville, CO, and it snowed on me when I passed over the 12,000' high Independence Pass. It was gorgeous from Aspen down to the I-70 Junction, and then hot home through Gran Junction and Moab. However, it was dry!

[rwstorm]

As seen in the Phoenix sky this evening. Glad these high altitude projects are still happening! Long live balloon flights (so says the old radiosonde guy)!

http://laspace.lsu.edu/hasp/

[Jim]

While purely anecdotal, I have just looked at some recent photo sets from Colorado in the Sawatch Range and compared to sets about 1 week earlier from last year, and in roughly the same places, fall color is not yet starting. This could be a result of many things, but last year's dry conditions seem like they might have pushed up the color, while a wet summer might hold it back. The tundra is browning out, but no yellow leaves observed in the photos, unlike last year. What does this mean? It means I am hopeful to see some nice color in later September, if I can go, since mid month is less than likely.

[chumley]

I am hopeful to see some nice color in later September

Wouldn't a Colorado trip interfere with your proposed midweek-late-September-Flagstaff-area-hotel-with-a-shower-hazfest? ;)

[Jim]

I suppose, if I were planning on such a thing. Perhaps a San Luis Peak HAZ-fest is more in order?

[Jim]

For the short term, yet another dying tropical storm, this time Lorena, is pushing moisture north into Arizona. More storms forecast for the state, centered heavily on west central AZ, and the Flagstaff area. I wouldn't be surprised if Flag had 3 well above normal rainfall months, and since they already had a foot in the last 2 months, I could see 15 inches for the monsoon season, as a very real possibility. It would be nice if the valley and Tucson got something, since they were so well below last month.

[azbackpackr]

You're actually up? But, it's so early! ;)

I have to be in Kingman/Meadview/Lake Mead on Friday afternoon and part of Saturday. Friday is the first day the weather service is showing a sunny forecast for that area. Also have to pass through Flag, possibly camping there that Thursday night, but forecast shows still a chance of rain at that time. So, we'll see what unfolds. At least, this coming week, I am finally getting my windshield wipers fixed!

[beterarcher]

@azbackpackr
Did you use the redneck fixin'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29L7syxqAm4

[azbackpackr]

@azbackpackr
Did you use the redneck fixin'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29L7syxqAm4

Nah. It's one of those weird things--the wiper motor runs the right-hand wiper arm, and there's linkage connecting the left-hand arm. The linkage broke about 3 years ago and a guy at a local junkyard was able to make a part for me really cheap, and it worked up until this summer. I took it back to him, but his second fix lasted only a week, so now I am taking it to my real mechanic. It isn't going to be $600, as someone had told me, but only about $130 to fix it, thankfully.

Meanwhile, I learned about Rain-X, and used that on the left-hand side to improve my visibility, while using the right-hand wiper, which actually travels about 2/3 of the way across the windshield.

[Jim]

Well, I was up, but I'm an hour ahead, so I went to bed at 845 for Arizona people, last night.

[azbackpackr]

For the short term, yet another dying tropical storm, this time Lorena, is pushing moisture north into Arizona. More storms forecast for the state, centered heavily on west central AZ, and the Flagstaff area. I wouldn't be surprised if Flag had 3 well above normal rainfall months, and since they already had a foot in the last 2 months, I could see 15 inches for the monsoon season, as a very real possibility. It would be nice if the valley and Tucson got something, since they were so well below last month.

Here it comes! Or, at least, a return of monsoon, after two or three dry days. I managed to get the garage door painted just in time.

[beterarcher]

Why does it always rain while I'm at work and it's 112* when it's my day off?

[Jim]

Just looked at the NWS Flagstaff weather radar and it shows heavy rain all over the western Rim area, the Verde Valley, the Prescott Valley and mountains, and down to north west Phoenix. Basically, over a lot of the same area that received rain yesterday. The models appear to have been right on for this low pressure event riding the monsoon, and these are not pop up monsoon thunderstorms, this is more like what you get in winter or back east when a tropic low falls apart. Therefore, you can't makes arguments that Flag's rain total really isn't representative of the wider region on the Rim, as this summer has been above normal for much of the northern half of the state and it isn't from old fashioned thunderstorms. The flow is forecast to move east to NM, and I expect good storms over much of this place.

Either way, I hope this is about the last of the summer rain, as it is coming up towards mid month and I am sick of rain.

[Dschur]

In Payson this weekend at our house we only received 1/4 inch of rain.. Sat night we had a track enough to wet the ground and then the little down pour on sunday. Know someone who was up on the Rim behind the Ranger station across from Woods Canyon said they got some rain on Saturday night and was able to pack up before the rains came on Sunday morning... we are just below average on the rainfall in the Payson area..

[chumley]

Radar looks good, but it seems like whatever rain is falling is very light. Only a few sprinkles Saturday according to the various triplogs I've read. 3DD and Bruce didn't even see much while traversing the Rim. It's been a very pleasant two days here in the valley though. Still under .50 at my house total though.

[Jim]

Dawn, I don't know how much payson averages in July and August, but according to:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Monthly_Sum ... Review.pdf
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Monthly_Sum ... Review.pdf

You have had over 9 inches the last 2 months. Also, Payson and Flag are not the same. Flag is the western Rim, not the central Arizona Highlands, which I consider Payson. Payson latches on to the Rim for tourism, but it is 2,000' below it and well south.

Chum, speaking for an area that is not Flagstaff and receives less than Flag has had in the last 2 months does not negate that the entire western Rim has had above normal precip this summer. Phoenix and southern Arizona have missed out, but they are not northern Arizona, or the western Rim. For that matter, Payson is not northern, either.