Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

Yes, but was there also a polar vortex that infiltrated the midwest in those years?

[Jim]

Couldn't tell you. That isn't the point, though. The point is that in previous years with very dry periods for CA, the extended dry time was followed by an extended wet period, which is supported by earlier assertions that years such as this have had a bimodal wet winter period in Colorado. So, the conclusion is that wait and see, but there may be a significant period of west coast storms to track over California and the 4-corners States.

I'm curious as to why you ask about the midwest? Did you just want to write "polar vortex"?

[chumley]

While I definitely wanted to ride the media orgasm that is the polar vortex , I tend to think that the weather extremes along the west coast are not isolated events continentally, and the dominating pacific high probably plays a factor in the location of the jet stream and subsequent polar vortex. So it stands to reason that if similar phenomenon caused a dry west in the past, it may have also had similarly correlating results elsewhere in the country back in the day too. Who knows though. I only have a Geography degree from USF.

[Jim]

Well, the jet stream does seem to go to extremes, with up high on one side often coming down low on the other, but no one is saying anything about that, so I don't know. Also, I don't like the mid-west or east, so I try to ignore it. I do remember my parents talking about water pipes freezing in their house in the 1970s, and that might have been in early 1977.

[big_load]

The last major deflection of the polar vortex I'm aware of (not necessarily the most recent) was in 1994. I don't recall how that one affected the midwest, but it was much worse than this one in NJ. We had a four-day stretch where it didn't get above 0F, which our infrastructure can't tolerate. Not only did a lot of pipes freeze in many houses, but underground water supply lines froze all over the place because they aren't buried as deeply here as in the midwest.

[SpiderLegs]

Who knows though. I only have a Geography degree from USF.

And I'll see your degree with my Geography degree from the U of A.

[chumley]

And I'll see your degree with my Geography degree from the U of A.

I'm sorry you had to spend a few years up in Tucson. I hear JimH hates that place.

[chumley]

The highest-volume waterfall in the world has partially frozen over. Some nice photos from the Brits
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... -side.html

[Jim]

Bah! Tucson! ;)

Lovely weather over here. Wondering if we'll return to winter precip this season, or ride a wave of nice weather in to March, sort of like last year.

I hope California and Arizona, and at least Northern New Mexico get more heavy precip, though. If I make a trip without moving, I'd like to see some poppies this spring. Where is that usually the best, and when, too?

[JimmyLyding]

http://www.sfgate.com/outdoors/article/ ... 136884.php
I haven't laid eyes on the Sierra Nevada in some time, but I'm guessing that they're pretty dry. I live in the shadow of Mount Diablo, and it's typically as-green-as-Ireland by this time of year. Now it's not even brown or golden, but gray (and not from the Diablo Fire). California also typically gets almost zero precipitation during the summer unlike Arizona.
2010-11 was the first winter I lived here in the Bay Area, and we got hammered with precipitation. I remember looking at the 10-day forecast and seeing nothing but 80%+ forecasts of rain for days on end. The state government even declared that the drought was over. Were they ever wrong.
The current situation is bad news for farmers, ranchers, skiers, salmon and those fools in Sacramento who want to build 2 huge tunnels to ship water to corporate agribusinesses in the Central Valley(s) and swimming pools in Southern California. Water typically flows downhill, but it also flows towards money.
Pessimists are expecting the wildfire season to start any day now, and the optimists are praying for a late-winter surge. We'll see.
The East Pacific High is no bueno. Hopefully a low pressure system will sit over the area and get the Pineapple Express rolling.

[Jim]

Well, I'm thinking that if the state doesn't get several large winter-spring storms to bring totals up in February and March, the next year will be one of a drought severity never seen since California was settled by Anglos. Right now it's worse than 1976-1977, per the snow graphs. The big problem is, it comes on the record dry year of 2013, and the dry year of 2012. Who knows, maybe a pineapple express will develop?

[FOTG]

@Jim_H
I love pineapple express... ;)

[Jim]

It's gotten pretty dry over here, again. How is it looking over in Arizona's lower deserts? Is there much green growth, or no?

[chumley]

Is there much green growth, or no?

No. All the growers moved to Colorado this year.

[azbackpackr]

It's in the high 80's here in So Cal.

[kingsnake]

73 in Superior about 12:30 p.m.

[chumley]

Despite the current drought conditions across much of the west, the following Arizona locations are ABOVE NORMAL for the 3-month winter period so far (measured 10/1 through 12/31)
Gila Bend
Jerome
Page
Payson
Phoenix
Punkin Center
Roosevelt
Tucson
Wickenburg
Winslow

Notably, the high elevation locations of Flagstaff and McNary are below normal for the season so far.

Also, Merry Christmas! : rein :
;)

[Jim]

The above normal yearly totals for Flagstaff are mostly from the summer rain, which is long over. Flag did OK during some of the storms, and the desert seemed to fair very well (in your 3 month totals) from the 2 lows that pulled in tropical moisture as they either came down from the Great Basin, or in from the Baja, totally missing California and taking the unusual track that lows have taken over the last few years. I played with the rainlog.org site and it appears Arizona has not had precip since about the Solstice, so approaching a month. Flagstaff has a weather story talking about this being one of the longest periods of time in winter with no measurable precipitation, and it is predicted to continue for some time. Hey, at least Snowbowl makes snow now. ;)

[Jim]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/News/DrySpellStats.jpg

Turning back to Arizona, Flagstaff is now in their 5th longest dry spell during the winter wet season. They predict it will probably reach the 3rd driest. It's been dry here, as well, but other than it being much warmer and nicer than last winter, this really doesn't feel any different than January of 2013 with regard to dryness. Then again, I hardly remember much more than a few extremely cold days. It did reach 70 by the end of January, last year, so who knows?

For those that care, I expect 1 of 3 logical outcomes will occur:

1) The High remains in place, California, Nevada and the rest of the already affected Southwest enter an unprecedented drought with severe repercussions: another big "Rim Fire", water rationing in California, a very dry spring in Arizona and New Mexico, and large fires this May/June over here before Monsoon Season.

2) The High breaks down, a series of strong lows flow out of the Gulf of Alaska, large precipitation totals accumulate, a wet February to March period happens in most of Arizona, and New Mexico, and California sees a winter that is still a drought, but has total precipitation values that are probably near 3/4 of normal. It seems incredibly unlikely much more than that could fall. Arizona does well, and the desert is nice and lush this Spring.

3) The High remains in place, but breaks down slightly at times, with a few lows getting by or grazing the state and some precip comes, with meager totals and a severe drought continuing. Totals are less than 50% of normal for the season, and Arizona and New Mexico a have very dry winter, with the usual happenings this May/June. I think this is most likely.

Just some thoughts while eating breakfast and drinking coffee this morning.

[kingsnake]

I don't know about Arizona, but California is definitely for door #1 ...