Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

I enjoy a good speculation.

As a professional career counselor, I recommend you seek permanent employment as a speculator. This will lead to a life of fulfillment and happiness.

Now back to Storm Field with the forecast...

[Jim]

Continued sunny, dry, and well above normal warm, over in south central New Mexico. We had the driest January on record, in the State. Flagstaff only tied the longest stretch of dry days during the winter wet season, but we had out driest January ever.

Back to water:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_in_C ... s_of_water

That is per Wikipedia and pertains only to California, but I suspect, or speculate, that in Arizona, a similar ratio exists for water usage. Seems that while ag. use will have to suffer, even extremely dry years such as this, probably have more or less enough to sustain the big urban areas, or can with adequate conservation. Small towns, with limited supplies are different.

[JimmyLyding]

@Jim_H: Aren't you a ray of sunshine? Sheesh. Unfortunately I agree that a series of monster pineapple express storms is much less likely than continued dryness heading into the dry summer. Monsoons don't happen in Cali except for sporadically in the SE corner.
The point about waters from the Gila possibly being diverted to Las Cruces farms is not a solution to water problems any more than water from Northern California being diverted to Southern California. The future has to lie in conservation, improvements in efficiency, and reuse rather than robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[big_load]

We're having the same weather pattern that persisted in the winter of 1994, which had record snowfall. We had a foot and a half of snow Thursday (with half an inch of ice in the middle) and another four inches today. More snow coming Monday night and Tuesday. Roofs are starting to collapse. We're close to top-ten territory already, and there are two months of snow season left.

We got a couple more inches yesterday, and the schools had a late opening. However, they ended up not opening at all, and they remain closed today. We found out this morning that they're concerned about the structural safety with the current snow loads. We had more snow in 1994, but the local elementary school is new since then. A high school in a neighboring district had a minor roof failure on Sunday or Monday.

We're getting freezing rain today, which is soaking into the deep snow, so it may get worse before it gets better.

[Jim]

It's all the sun down here, I get so cheery I spread it around!

[Jim]

Nothing on the 5 day Forecast QPF, but this 7 day model shows some rain and snow for California. I wonder if it will get a bit further south? Nothing for Arizona or New Mexico. I suspect, that with the dry conditions since the start of the year, that there will be a very limited flower display next month and in April.

What they and we really need, is dark (not deep) purple in the mountains of southern California and northern Baja Mexico, and some purple on the rim, in the sky islands, and into the Gila and up in the Sangres. Probably won't happen, though. However, this QPF model is for 7 days out, and while a lot can happen with forecasts 7 to 10 days out, some NWS offices like the one from LA indicate a storm through to Saturday or Sunday, and in that case, an old fashioned closed low with a moist tap could develop, and that could move inland and track over AZ bringing moisture. Perhaps, it could even do something for the the area from the San Juan Mountains to the Sacramento Mountains?

[chumley]

I enjoy a good speculation.

It's a good morning for speculation!

[Jim]

I enjoy a good speculation.

It's a good morning for speculation!

Waking up after working yesterday, coffee in hand, and thinking of making bacon; what is better to compliment that, than a good speculation about who will get rain and snow?

[chumley]

Waking up after working yesterday, coffee in hand, and thinking of making bacon; what is better to compliment that, than a good speculation about who will get rain and snow?

I can think of a thing or two... :whistle:

[Jim]

I'm 2 dimensional, and can not.

IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...OR
TPW...HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE JET
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE EASTWARD BRINGING
MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST... AND THIS MAY INCLUDE NRN AZ.

From the Flagstaff NWS current discussion. Maybe southern Arizona and New Mexico, too? Well, I can hope.

Hey, who knows, perhaps a "March Miracle" will develop, with this being the first of numerous strong, well fetched and moist storms to enter the California coast and move over the 4-corners region? I speculate, a scenario such as that would be well received. Also, it would generate a large amount of buzz, mostly by me, on this board.

[Jim]

Models looking more favorable for California and maybe Arizona. I wonder if there will be more for the southern part of the state. I still think southern New Mexico will be dry, and windy.

[azbackpackr]

Models looking more favorable for California and maybe Arizona. I wonder if there will be more for the southern part of the state. I still think southern New Mexico will be dry, and windy.

The forecast here does call for heavy rain. It might mess up my weekend kayak rescue practice in Mission Bay. One guy who signed on said, "We're going to be wet anyway, so what does it matter?" But another guy said that the runoff from rain makes the bay too dirty to be getting any of it into your mouth. He said he got sick from it one time.

[Jim]

Yeah, you may have to cancel or reschedule. Still, the rain is more important. I'm excited to see the updated 7 day forecast with more interior totals. Not just a lot on the coast, or on the western slope of Colorado, but some 3/4 of an inch colors around Tucson, over 1/2 an inch in parts of the desert.

[tibber]

two words: garage sale
when: Saturday, Mar 1
forecast: rain

this garage sale was rescheduled from Nov 23rd, the last time we had rain in the valley.
if forecast stays at 40% chance, we will reschedule. I'll let you know the date so you can plan for rain again ;) . If I had known, I would have scheduled one sooner .

[chumley]

@tibber
I know that I'll be washing my truck and also hanging my laundry out on the line to dry. I may also consider painting the back fence and re-roofing my house. ;)

[Jim]

Getting wetter in the Arizona areas, even into parts of NM. Just look at those southern California predicted totals! San Jacinto will hopefully get several feet of wet snow! Should be an active, wet weekend for you guys. I hope the wind isn't too bad over here, everything is powdery.

[chumley]

I was just getting ready to post highlights from the discussion, which seems to have three sexy models doing a pretty well-synchronized routine already.

NWS PHX:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT WE WILL SEE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN FACT...ALL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE EVEN MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM ...WILL NOW PICK UP COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE

ALL THREE MODELS ... ARE FORECASTING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE CA AND SW AZ...0.75-1.25 INCH FOR JOSHUA TREE NP AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LIKELY SOME SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING ISSUES IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS VERIFY.

HIGH TEMPS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON SATURDAY...INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS THE LIKELY STEADY RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...A RATHER RAW AND WET DAY

FGZ is emphasizing that the storm will be weakening as it crosses AZ, and that orographic areas will still get ample precipitation, but other areas will not. We'll see how that forecast pans out in the next couple of days.

I'm still leery of the whole thing. But we can all hope I guess.

[FOTG]

@chumley[/b

hmmm I was about to tentatively plan something for Mazatzal Wilderness, think snow will be an issue?? or just to early and to hard to tell?

[Jim]

I was reading the California Weather Blog, http://www.weatherwest.com/ , and it basically talks about this being a very good and important storm, but that it is neither all that strong, or all that rare, historically. We should have seen many of these this winter, but didn't. Then it goes on to talk about a return to the dry ridging being very likely, and potential for an El Nino next year, which would be good if very wet, but it would hopefully start after real any impacts to summer monsoon season could be felt, remember the failure of 2009?

For the coming weekend, at least some places will get real precipitation. Would this be Snowbowl and Sunrises first real snow event since December? And in March, no less, at the end of the ski season. Better late, than never. It's a shame it is going to weaken so much over Arizona, as we could really use rain, too. Oh well, I guess it is going to be another dust blowing spring. Low run-off on the Gila, and over tapped Rio Grande, and well pumps in the Mesilla Valley working over time to green up those very natural Pecan orchards.

[chumley]

I was about to tentatively plan something for Mazatzal Wilderness, think snow will be an issue?? or just to early and to hard to tell?

Early indications are of a snow level at 7500 feet for the bulk of the precipitation, so I think most of the Mazzies will see rain until the the end, when lighter amounts of snow may fall later on Saturday and Sunday. But it is early and definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Mazzies would definitely qualify in the higher precip amounts due to good orographics. I would expect at least 1.5" and maybe as much as 3" of rain in some spots there.