Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

Flagstaff has had over 5 inches of rain for the month, which is more than last August. Seems very impressive, until I noticed they got 7.58 inches last July. They are over 9 and 1/3 inches for the season, so far. I wonder, what the monsoon season total will end up being, seeing as Flagstaff is already over the seasonal mean.

I still hope they dry out in the first half of September, have a nice mild dry fall, and then we get that long awaited El Nino with abundant snow and rain. Also, it would probably be nice if it didn't rapidly dry out and get super windy for 3 months, the way it did in 2010. Virtually all of the winter of 2010's snow moisture in the soil blew away that spring and then there was that Schultz Fire.

Looks like the Rincons got some good rain while I was in Flag early this week, and the Deer Head is done, with trails opened. It is late in the season, but some grass should grow and it might be interesting to head up there and poke around.

[chumley]

Despite the rain last night in the valley, this morning was almost autumn-like. Perhaps it was just the cool air, but I didn't feel the humidity on my ride at all. It's the most pleasant morning I've had since before the summer warmup.

[SpiderLegs]

Despite the rain last night in the valley, this morning was almost autumn-like. Perhaps it was just the cool air, but I didn't feel the humidity on my ride at all. It's the most pleasant morning I've had since before the summer warmup.

Noticed the same thing when I stepped outside this morning. Hope it lasts over the weekend, I have some long runs planned.

[Jim]

I noticed that it doesn't feel as humid lately, despite the high dew points. It was cool the last few evenings, and it was nice. Autumn is just a few weeks away.

[SpiderLegs]

Just looked at the 10 day forecast for Phoenix, hate to jinx it but appears that the worst of summer is over. I can count down the hot weather by weeks now instead of months.

[Jim]

Flagstaff NWS has an updated monsoon total for the season. Everywhere but Page is doing really well, and Page is hardly suffering.

Still a week left in the month, but I wonder how wet September will be? I really, really hope that it doesn't give last September serious competition.

[chumley]

A STRONG WLY JET CORE WILL DESCEND INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...FURTHER REINFORCING THE WESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY (THE ANTITHESIS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SEASON FLOW) AND KEEPING MOISTURE WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT OF THIS PATTERN MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SEPTEMBER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND OF COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

JimH your wish may be coming true. But is it the onset of the end of the monsoon or just a temporary shift with a last gasp or two in early September?

[SpiderLegs]

Friend of mine in Idaho just sent me his pic from a hike that he took on Sunday. Had to turn around due to heavy snowfall and low visibility. Looks like winter is coming early up north.

[Jim]

@chumley
One can hope, one can hope.

Actually, once off the Peaks, out of Flagstaff, and back down in Tucson, I didn't mind the rain. It wasn't cold and rainy, so that figures.

On the other hand, I would be just fine with an early end to the monsoon, perhaps with a strong brief surge from the 10th to 17th, and then a rapid drying, with a wet and snowy winter. I hope to summit Humphrey next month, since I didn't do it 10 days ago and today is my 2 year anniversary of my last summit. I then want to have snow to summit it in winter, under good to excellent, winter of 2010 type conditions, since I haven't been up there in winter in 3 years, almost 4 by this coming winter.

I expect a rainy winter will affect my hiking, but it is probably worth it for the flowers, and everything else. I remember April of '10 being very impressive in the Anthem area. Must be good here, too. Besides, some rainy days mean snow on the Lemmon and the Peaks, and that is worth it.

[Jim]

This drying weather is fantastic! Ah....reduced humidity.

[Jim]

46 degrees in Flagstaff this morning! Chilly! 105 forecast down here, and it's probably getting close to a frost on the Peaks.

[chumley]

Looks like some monsoon moisture will return by this weekend.

[rwstorm]

Looks like some monsoon moisture will return by this weekend.

Yay!

[Jim]

Actually, despite the well above normal totals for July and August in northern and western Arizona, the dry week or so around Flagstaff has been little a early for fall dryness. Looks like rain moving through the area, and it would be nice to get some serious totals to keep Philomena Springs flowing for me in a a couple of weeks. It has been very dry around here this summer, or so the NWS says, I can't tell yet, and despite the desert near me appearing slightly greener than June when it was bone dry, it doesn't seem like a lot of areas got as much rain as they could use. Hopefully the mountains around the Tucson Basin get some good totals, as well as the desert.

[chumley]

About 2/3rds of the state looks to be in for more than an inch of rain by early next week. Much more is possible down south.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1409848952

[Jim]

@chumley
Ah, I have that as my browser homepage. It will remain to be seen how accurate that is, though. They do far better with those precipitation models for winter lows, than moist monsoon flows that rely on thunderstorms to develop.

I am also pleased to see more forecast for NM, since that area hardly ever gets winter precip. Not like AZ can.

[chumley]

It is still a few days out, so I'm sure things will change, but I like the sounds of things so far.

NWS PHX:

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...THOUGH IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY.

NWS FLG:

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PROGS BACK TO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND DURATION OF RAINFALL THESE DAYS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SUCH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

NWS TUC:

VERY IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS SHOULD OCCUR BY MON EVENING WHEN THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH EXACT TOTALS ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED... A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE IS FOR POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH UPWARD TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY CERTAINLY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

[Jim]

Shortly after I moved to Arizona the first time, during one of the first weekends in September of 2006, maybe Labor Day weekend, in Flagstaff, there was a forecast for huge amounts of rain with a decaying tropical low moving up from the Sea of Cortez. I recall the loggers working on NAU school property stopped working and moved their equipment out of where they were so they didn't rut up the area. It ended up being a big bust. We expected a deluge, and I recall small scattered storms, however it may have been dry and sunny the entire time. It happens. Hopefully, since we still need rain and summer really isn't over just yet, some more will come.

Then after the middle of next week, I am fine with a transition to fall. But, I would like some more rain!

[Jim]

A haboob came in from the west late this afternoon, and there have been some heavy thunderstorms around the basin this evening. Very nice lightning.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

I took these as I was leaving work today.
I saw three come out of this cell, but there was no road access to get on the other side of the buildings.
Only saw one this hitch offshore, but I was flying.