Atmosphere Comparison

Jim · Post by **Jim** » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 16 2015 11:35 am

The sun was shining on the sea,
Shining with all his might:
He did his very best to make
The billows smooth and bright--
And this was odd, because it was
The middle of the night.

Lewis Carroll

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 18 2015 12:27 pm

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/2853

For those who take an interest in overall trends, and not simply what fell in so and so's rain gauge, the above link provides some discussion on the weather which has affected California, and by extension us in Arizona, this winter. Once again, a dry January for them, and with the coming ridge, us. On the one hand I really love the chance for 70s and 80s this time of year and jealously watch Arizona and southern California enjoy them last year while I suffered so miserably through mid 50s! It was brutal! On the other hand, we could really use some more rain, and the mountains need more snow.

Unlike most of California, we have benefited from the moisture infused and rather cold New Year's low, which produced minor totals in southern California, as well as the sluggish northern Sonoran low last week that dropped modest but welcome totals in the Tucson basin and left residual moisture behind (it seemed) that was favorable for northern Arizona and the 4-Corners area earlier this week with the snowy "inside slider" low, as the California NWS offices refers to any low that drops down from the north or northwest in the Great Basin and does not produce any precipitation of significance over the Sierra, or watersheds of California. The San Juans at least, did benefit from it.

The Climate Prediction Office continues to call for moist conditions for the February to April period, both for California and Arizona. Temperatures vary, but in general warmer, however extreme SE AZ is about average. At any rate, nothing for quite a while, is the current forecast. Not that I mind this weather.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 21 2015 9:05 am

Most recent snowpack survey for Colorado, if you are interested in such things. Generally good for east of the Divide, not so for west. Bart benefits! At only the half way point, it could still go either way for the rest of the season, though it is a good time to get a feel for things. Obviously, California is far worse. Arizona, is not much better.

co_update_snow.pdf: (1.06 MiB) Downloaded 91 times

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowap ... art.action

JasonCleghorn · Post by **JasonCleghorn** » Jan 21 2015 9:12 am

Seems like a good year to be a PCT thru-hiker based on that CA snow data?

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 21 2015 10:39 am

I would say it could go either way, if you mean now, as there is still snow, but it is the difference between measuring in feet vs inches. Not sure how that data would affect summer water availability, which I would be more concerned with than having to hike in snow.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 22 2015 8:13 am

An unusual low is moving south in NM right now, with Ski Apache and the Sacramento Mountains looking to be a big winner, which is rare. Snow to the basin floor in Las Cruces, El Paso, and obviously Alamogordo. Ski Apache reports over 12 inches of new snow, with continued snowfall, and up to a foot for the Sacramento MTS is forecast. Most ski areas in the Sangres reported 8" to 13" total. And I thought the forecast for a high of 59 in Tucson today, was horrible!

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 25 2015 4:48 pm

We're preparing for the onslaught in NJ. The 8" we got yesterday is nothing compared to the 18"-24" supposedly coming tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday. We'll get another inch or two tonight as a warm-up. The digging won't kill us, but I hope we don't have a long-term power outage. Mrs. big_load likes having heat in the winter.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 25 2015 4:55 pm

@big_load
Why not invest in a modern wood heater? They are very clean and efficient and will warm the whole house during a power outage.

sneakySASQUATCH · Post by **sneakySASQUATCH** » Jan 25 2015 5:27 pm

@big_load
Send some our way I'll take it.

I think about the same power issues. We have multiple heating options, but currently the wood burning stove is out of commission thanks to previous owners warping the flue burning coal in it. So we are SOL if we lose power as well. Good luck!

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 25 2015 5:31 pm

My goal is not do any improvements that require a building permit. I'm willing to pay for the permit, but I'm not willing to pay for the extortion that comes afterward.

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 25 2015 5:33 pm

It's frustrating that it won't be good snow for XC skiing. It will be warm and mushy, then it will refreeze.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 25 2015 10:50 pm

So not to throw a wet blanket on this whole thing ... I'm sure the tri-state area will get a solid wallop of a winter storm ... BUT the media capital of the world is really over-hyping this one!

It's conceivable that the NYC area will settle in with a good 12-18" snowstorm. Which is nothing to laugh at. That will shut down the city, airports, roads, etc.

BUT the predictions of 3 feet that are the highlights of every news headline you read are not consistent with the actual forecast (actually double or more). I'm sure there will be isolated spots in Westchester, Conn, or out on the island that get totals in the 30s (and I wouldn't rule out a spot or two over 40"). But the forecast isn't calling for anything close to that in the city or at the airports.

I've experienced at least 3 storms in Conn with totals between 28 and 38 inches. It's a lot of snow. But it's not unprecedented.

Impressive snow storms happen around the globe every year. Only in New York does this mean the world is about to end.
rawr!

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 25 2015 11:09 pm

chumley wrote: BUT the media capital of the world is really over-hyping this one!

That's for sure! I'm trying to avoid it as much as possible. The claims of it being "unprecedented" are bogus, unless applied to Central Park within the last ten years. It does seem plausible that eastern Long Island will get three feet, but I'd be surprised Manhattan gets more than two. We usually get a three-footer every three or four years, but it's less much less common for the heavier snow to fall as far east. When we're getting hit that hard, a bigger fraction of it falls as rain in NYC. The biggest problem for them is not having anyplace to put real snow. Alos, the LIRR snowplow trains can't handle more than 10".

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 26 2015 3:56 am

One of my extended family is from the Midwest. He says: "Snowing in Miami is news. Snowing in Milwaukee is NOT news!" But it sells advertising because millions of our fellow citizens sit and watch TV news all day. Try to get them to stop watching. Ain't gonna happen.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 26 2015 12:48 pm

Meanwhile, in Arizona, it looks like another formerly unusual, but becoming normal, low from NW Mexico is moving northeast across the state today and a warm rain will affect the desert. If Tucson, and the desert gets the forecast 4/10th of an inch of rain, I will be happy. It has to help the desert out. I spotted a few poppies flowering on Oracle HWY as I entered Oro Valley, so perhaps the flowers are already underway?

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 27 2015 7:24 am

lol #junofail

NYC looks to have gotten 8-12" depending on location. Many spots in New Jersey with less than that.

East of the city ranges from 12-20", with some totals near two feet all the way out on the tip of Long Island and eastern Connecticut.

Massachusetts and Maine are still going and looks like many spots will get over 2 feet.

Nice storm. Just a lot farther east than originally predicted.

FOTG · Post by **FOTG** » Jan 27 2015 7:42 am

@chumley
wow you know it is going to be a slow day when Chumley is giving weather reports for areas 2000 miles away from Arizona...Do you think any of that snow will impact hiking in the Supes this weekend, should we change travel plans for Super Bowl Sunday? I cant wait to find out how the weather is in Cuzco tomorrow ;)

The_Eagle · Post by **The_Eagle** » Jan 27 2015 7:44 am

@friendofThundergod
52 currently, with a 20% chance of showers

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 27 2015 8:38 am

friendofThundergod wrote:you know it is going to be a slow day

Apparently you haven't been reading the comments about big hiking groups!

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Jan 27 2015 9:46 am

We got about 8", on top of 8" from Saturday, and we might get another inch before it moves out. The good thing about this storm (from my warped point of view) is that it moved a little faster than expected in the middle stages and more cold air came in under/behind it from the northwest. Therefore we got entirely colder, fine-grained snow. Usually this kind of storm finishes with warm, heavy, wet snow. If it stays reasonably cold, I could be XC skiing this weekend.

Atmosphere Comparison

Atmosphere Comparison

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Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

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Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

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Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!

Re: 2015: Rain, Snow, Wind, and Sun!!!!!!