Atmosphere Comparison

Jim · Post by **Jim** » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 27 2015 10:20 am

The models are now calling for a slow moving moist storm to set up Thursday to Saturday-Sunday. The system is still out in the Pacific Ocean, and it is a strange one with a lot of uncertainty. From reading various NWS office discussions, it appears that it will come in over NW Baja(?) and move eastward as it develops and brings up mostly rain for Arizona. Precipitation models appear dry for California, which is a shame. The Phoenix NWS office states the models may be over doing it, but the eastern half of AZ could see a good amount of rain. Yesterday was a dud here, so 1/2 to 1inch would be great, especially over a few days. Tucson basically says a decent rain and some good snow will develop, but the most snow will be in the Pinalenos and Whites with over 8 inches, with only about 6 in the Rincons and Catalinas, and with less near the border. A high snow line is forecast. However, the Tucson NWS does talk about widespread 1/2 to 3/4 valley rain amounts, so that would be excellent. Not much talk out of Flagstaff for the storm, yet. Albuquerque, however, is talking about a large, wet, slow moving system, so this could be another good wet rain and snow maker for New Mexico. Good for them, and hopefully it is wet with heavy precipitation. I am sort of glad I am not there to see it, but it might have been nice to see lots of snow in the Sacs. I'm still impressed with how much Snow Ski Apache received last week with that storm that came down from the 4-corners area. I think that was the largest storm the Sierra Blanca Mountains have had in years, possibly since 2010.

sneakySASQUATCH · Post by **sneakySASQUATCH** » Jan 27 2015 12:08 pm

60 degrees at the house. 67 in the Springs I'm wearing shorts and A t-shirt when I take Micah to the zoo!

SuperstitionGuy · Post by **SuperstitionGuy** » Jan 27 2015 12:51 pm

For those of you who like short posts:

AJ received 3/4" of rain last night & this morning.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 27 2015 1:39 pm

@SuperstitionGuy
I think you might have left the sprinklers on?

Amongst the 15 or so official gauges east of Ellsworth Rd, there are two that logged .24", with almost all the others at .04" or .08".
Amongst the 6 reports by "amateurs" on rainlog, .12" is the highest, with the others in the .05 to .08" range.

I'm not sure exactly where you live, and showers can be locally heavy, but it seems a bit strange that no other gauges within 30 miles of you received even 30% as much rain as you!

rwstorm · Post by **rwstorm** » Jan 27 2015 2:40 pm

Pretty much a flop here in Tucson. Only .09" at my house, so hope the next one makes up for it.

SuperstitionGuy · Post by **SuperstitionGuy** » Jan 27 2015 2:41 pm

chumley wrote:I think you might have left the sprinklers on?

Southeast of Ironwood and Broadway. Neighbors desert landscape yard except for the pool with a rain gauge mounted on the top of a wooden play set. Also the pool was quite a ways above normal as well. Rain last night and two big bursts this morning. Hopefully the Sups received the same or similar....

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 27 2015 2:58 pm

SuperstitionGuy wrote:Hopefully the Sups received the same or similar....

That would be nice! I'm guessing you experienced a very local shower. None of the available data would indicate any kind of widespread rainfall in amounts like that.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 27 2015 8:14 pm

The next one has been bumped up a bit, with potentially 2 feet or more of snow for the Whites, and heavy valley rain for the Tucson area.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 28 2015 7:38 am

Starting to look promising with .5" in the deserts to 2" in the foothills north and east of Phoenix.

FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WE CAN EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE HALF INCH TO OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH AT PHOENIX...AND AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.

The negative part of this story is that it appears to be an all rain event everywhere except the very highest peaks (over 8500 feet). While snow levels will drop to 7000 at different times during the storm, the mix of rain and snow usually limits accumulation.

More importantly, anybody got statistics on the historical percent chance of rain during the Phoenix Open?

Seems higher than the statistical average.

BobP · Post by **BobP** » Jan 28 2015 7:47 am

chumley wrote:the historical percent chance of rain during the Phoenix Open? Seems higher than the statistical average.

The one good thing is... it doesn't rain inside the tent

....the other good thing is... people may think Phoenix haz crappy weather

and decide on FLA instead.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 28 2015 7:50 am

BobP wrote:the other good thing is... people may think Phoenix haz crappy weather and decide on FLA instead.

I thought you didn't mind big crowds of people? ;)

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Jan 28 2015 8:36 am

It gonna rain!

BobP · Post by **BobP** » Jan 28 2015 8:40 am

chumley wrote:I thought you didn't mind big crowds of people?

I don't...I just hate all the jerks from CT that move here

like some of my relatives

Heading to Flagstaff on Friday....will it snow like the forecast says

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 29 2015 9:06 am

Jim_H wrote:It gonna rain!

What he said.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 29 2015 4:19 pm

chumley wrote:
friendofThundergod wrote:you know it is going to be a slow day
Apparently you haven't been reading the comments about big hiking groups!

Looked for this topic, Chum, I can't find it. I recently had a very unpleasant experience with a big group, to add to all my somewhat unpleasant experiences with previous big groups.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Jan 30 2015 6:30 am

Raining in Needles this morning, and the roof patch is working. Not that anyone cares. Wildflowers in Mojave Desert should be splendorous in a month or so, maybe?

CannondaleKid · Post by **CannondaleKid** » Jan 30 2015 7:44 am

A little more than 3/4" over the last 12 hours in East Mesa.
Still a light drizzle so I'm off to do some wet-weather hiking.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Jan 30 2015 8:02 am

It'll be interesting to see how things develop today but right now it looks like it will be dry for all of south central Arizona west of a line from Tucson to Apache Junction until afternoon.

Rain started 6 hours earlier than forecast yesterday and today appears to have an unanticipated dry period coming up.

hikerdw · Post by **hikerdw** » Jan 30 2015 2:37 pm

Lots of rain in southeast Mesa today. It will be interesting to see if it continues through the evening and night. Could make it interesting for those who venture out tomorrow

as the forecast I am seeing is calling for continued rain.

Nighthiker · Post by **Nighthiker** » Jan 30 2015 2:40 pm

About an inch of rain the past 24 hrs. at my home in Payson.

Atmosphere Comparison

Atmosphere Comparison

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