Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

Oh boy, yay, rain. Yeah...great.

[azbackpackr]

Snow on the Peaks. I saw it yesterday, peaking out from under the thick cloud cover, when I was driving south on 89 from Cameron.

[chumley]

Snowbowl posted a photo from 11-5.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... e=5691FCA1
Snow level is 10-3.

[JasonCleghorn]

Snowbowl posted a photo from 11-5.
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hp ... e=5691FCA1
Snow level is 10-3.

I was planning a non-crampon summit in the next two weeks. Weather window closed!

[chumley]

It might be fine by this weekend. And by next weekend it will have all melted for sure.

[Jim]

http://www.whitneyzone.com/

A dusting of fresh snow on Whitney and the surrounding Sierra Nevada. However, I question the street value of that mountain.

[big_load]

There's been snow on top of Mt. Charleston for at least the last couple days.

[Jim]

I was reading the Phoenix NWS discussion this morning and they mentioned a few things about how warm it has been and how moist it is. Evidently, it was very warm up high in the atmosphere this morning, and with 1.2 inches of precipitable water, the atmosphere had twice the normal amount of moisture. I like the warm, especially over 5,000', but it does strike me as odd that this is 2 years in a row with a moist fall. Not necessarily with rain, but the atmosphere seems to have continued humidity. I recall a similar situation last year, with haze, moisture, and humidity well into late October when I did hikes like Rincon Peak and Spud Rock from Italian Springs.

In pretty much every year before, once the monsoon flow ended, continental highs dominated and it was nice and dry with very pleasant dew points. Sometimes this was early like in 2012, others were about average as in 2013, sometimes it was late as in 2011, and others I can't really recall specifically, but rest assured that from 2006 to 2010, by later September and sometimes earlier, it had dried, dew points were down, and the air was clearing. I realize I was in Flagstaff for a lot of that time, but in Kayenta and Alamogordo, it was dry by now. Last year I thought the tropical storms and Tucson's proximity to the monsoon flow, the very wet summer, and so on, that was the reason it stayed moist. Phoenix is not Tucson. Shouldn't we be drying out!?!

Perhaps this is related to the El Nino, or something else, but I hope we dry out soon. I wouldn't hate more rain, but it would be nice if a continental dry high built in after to drop those dew points. They are down in to the higher 30s up north today, so perhaps relief is on it's way.

[big_load]

It sure was warm yesterday near Hoover Dam. I suspect the humidity was a little higher than average, but not noticeably so. The overall effect was pretty noticeable, though.

[chumley]

Can't say I've ever seen this scenario before.

The storm that brought widespread rain to Arizona last Tuesday has made a nice loop back out to the Pacific and is forecast to come back and hit us with rain again later this week. Twofer Tuesday is back!

[rwstorm]

@chumley
It does happen on rare occasions, usually during the transition seasons, such as May-early June or late September-October. Amazing and fascinating when it occurs!

[Jim]

I've seen it before. I forget the named storm, but it was a hurricane, which is really just a very powerful cut-off low, as this is also a cut off low and that is how it was able to move west after going southeast. With the hurricane, people were not too happy with it. I could care less, as it won't affect me strongly on days off. Next week, a low from the NW might have more impact, ruining a hoped for trip the the Canyon.

[outdoor_lover]

For the 2nd Weekend in a Row, Plans are now Cancelled, this Weekend's due to the Impending Weather....One of these Days I swear I am going to get Out of Dodge again....

[Jim]

It seems like every 3 or 4 day weekend I have ends up being stormed out, too.

[azbackpackr]

Sure glad I have weekdays off! It hardly ever rains Tues-Thurs! ;)

[CannondaleKid]

Plans are now Cancelled, this Weekend's due to the Impending Weather

Change plans based on impending weather?

Except in last-minute extreme cases I have not, and NEVER two or more days ahead of time. In my book forecasting is far from being precise... if it were precise, the correct word would be predicting rather than forecasting.

Forecasting is simply casting your line out 100 times and reeling it back in, except instead of real and absolute results (is it a bass or a sunny and how big?) out spouts computer generated models (virtual fish, if you will) running the gamut from one extreme to the other.

I just love it when a meteorologist explains:
A 50% chance of rain means out of 100 {DIFFERENT] computer simulations, 50 times there was some precipitation.

Hmmm... let's see... so if I caught a fish 50 out of 100 times you still can't tell me whether it was a bass or a sunny, or how large it was?

If we believed even part of such weather forecasts, Tracey and I would have missed out on MANY great hikes/camping trips. I think I'll do my own fishing (hiking) thank you!

[chumley]

@CannondaleKid
I agree. Except if your typical trip looks like this rather than like this. There is a difference.

[CannondaleKid]

@chumley
Agreed.

Now let's take a look at the flip side and using your first example... The weather outlook could be clear and sunny within a few hours before a hike yet change in a hurry with a flash flood leaving death in its wake.

Which goes back to my point... the farther in advance a weather forecast is the less it can be relied on for accuracy.

[outdoor_lover]

@CannondaleKid
Your Analogy was Perfect...You were Half Right...It was a 3 Day Bass Club Reunion with a 2 Day Fishing Tournament at Apache Lake. We were going to be Disperse Camping in a Large Drainage and having a Potluck on Saturday Night. 2 People including my Brother were going to be Sleeping in either an Open Bed Pickup or a Boat....With Friday and Saturday being Forecasted for Rain most of the Day, no one really wanted to be Sitting in a Boat during Thunderstorms trying to Fish when the Bite was probably going to be turned off anyway by the Cutoff Low Pressure System...2 of us weren't even going to be able to Fish anyway due to Broken Ribs...

The Vote was 10-0 in Favor of Postponing the Event until early next Spring and we decided early so that no one would go out and buy Food and Prepare it for the Potluck People were also going to be driving down a couple of Days Early from Show Low....This Event is about having Fun and if the Forecast turns out to be Correct, it would have Sucked trying to do anything in that Rain....If they get the Forecast wrong, well, I still don't think anyone will Regret the Decision. They'll just do something else...Better to put it off for another Time than Regret going in the First Place or Cancel at the Last Minute. Now People have Time to plan something else, like Hiking.... ;)

[nonot]

I just love it when a meteorologist explains:
A 50% chance of rain means out of 100 {DIFFERENT] computer simulations, 50 times there was some precipitation.

Hmmm... let's see... so if I caught a fish 50 out of 100 times you still can't tell me whether it was a bass or a sunny, or how large it was?

I have been told this means that there is a 50% chance the area you are in will get rained on, which means there is a much higher % chance (like 99%) that is will rain somewhere.

Once you creep above a few % (assuming typical weather pattern) you have to ensure your plans get you out of slot canyons by 1PM, as you don't risk your life on any chance. If it is an atypical pattern you don't go at all.

In all the trip descriptions, I advise all canyoneers to not go whenever there is any chance of rain, because in Arizona there are so few days of rain anyway, and the more complicated rule system I follow takes too long to explain.