Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[big_load]

I've only been back in NJ for two days and I already miss the sun.

[Jim]

While I have seen that the Forecast 120 and 168 hour QPFs are up and fairly impressive for us, I say, believe it when we see it. 20 inches of snow would be decent, but...

[chumley]

I think Snowbowl reported 28 inches since Thursday. With a bunch more forecast for later in the week. I like active patterns like this!

[garyc57]

Wouldn't you know it! No rain for... EVER, and I plan a two day hike down by Vail on the AZT. Guess what? Rain! Oh, well. I'm certainly not made of sugar, so I'll just plug along. Unfortunately, my daughter and son-in-law aren't so ambivalent about hiking in the rain.

[big_load]

Big rains today should put NJ over the top for wettest year on the books. The statewide average was 63.3" as of yesterday, 0.65" short of the record set in 2011. It's been raining for 12 hours, with 1.5"-2" expected before it stops.

ETA: I'm really glad this storm isn't snow.

[big_load]

The statewide average was 63.3" as of yesterday, 0.65" short of the record set in 2011. It's been raining for 12 hours, with 1.5"-2" expected before it stops.

The nearest weather station says we've had 0.75" so far, so the statewide average may have pushed into record territory. If the remainder of this storm doesn't do it, there's another inch forecast for 12/31.

[RedRoxx44]

Slushy snow around here right now, but looks like is more light rain causing it to melt some. will try to get my act together and head southeast.

[big_load]

The statewide average was 63.3" as of yesterday, 0.65" short of the record set in 2011. It's been raining for 12 hours, with 1.5"-2" expected before it stops.

The nearest weather station says we've had 0.75" so far, so the statewide average may have pushed into record territory. If the remainder of this storm doesn't do it, there's another inch forecast for 12/31.

It's official, with a new record statewide average of 64.49". We outdrenched that a bit locally.

[Jim]

Are people "enjoying" the low desert's first real winter since 2016? I've had enough of the cold, but I know it's healthier than the two previous winters. Maybe this will help mitigate my allergies which I first noticed in 17, and were horrible for 3 months last year? Either way, my tomatoes appear to have survived, so far.

It also appears the state is enjoying an active snow and watershed winter, so far. Totals so far appear pretty healthy at both ski areas, and 2 more storms are forecast over the next week. I have no plans to snowshoe Humphrey or anywhere this winter, but conditions on the mountain may be ready for the backcountry in a week, or so, depending on totals.

[big_load]

Are people "enjoying" the low desert's first real winter since 2016? I've had enough of the cold, but I know it's healthier than the two previous winters.

Yesterday I saw a nice picture of Bisbee covered with snow. It's not low desert, but I haven't been there yet when it snowed.

[Jim]

It rained! and snowed!

[sneakySASQUATCH]

Got a little snow at the house last night.

[Jim]

@chumley @john9L @toddak @BobP
Just because I would like to encourage someone to snowshoe the Peaks this coming weekend, and the Dutchman Route, as well as the Philomena Springs descent area (if stable) might be viable, I'm posting that the current storm cycle is warm and wet enough that it should increase the west face totals rather well, and with luck it will be deep enough that a substantial base will exist allowing for easy snow shoeing. Looks like about 2 feet of new snow is forecast at 10,000'.

The Snowslide snotel is less impressive, but it is slightly rain shadowed.

[chumley]

@Jim_H
I've been keeping an eye on it. I'm glad you mentioned the stability factor. My initial thoughts about current snowpack layers and the new snowfall certainly raises my caution level.

[Jim]

Just an FYI, when I say stable, I mean the pack should be stable for snowshoeing, not necessarily avalanche risk. I know almost nothing about avalanche risk, but the route I used/ wrote was always really safe, and I don't know of slides in the Dutchman. Allison Clay and Philomena are their own thing.

I never really traversed avalanche paths or terrain when I did the summit. I stuck to ridges, scoured slopes, and interiors of the cornices.

[azbackpackr]

In NW Arizona, the Mohave Valley and across the river in Needles we are experiencing a slow soaking rain, which is very welcome. I'm holed up and very cozy here in my RV spot on the riverbank.

[OdinWiski]

What about the Main Trail #151? Is it doable now/this weekend? Traction devices only without flotation?

[chumley]

@OdinWiski
I haven't been up there this year so I can't comment on current conditions, but 151 usually gets reasonable traffic through the winter. With that said, the snow is deep in there and I wouldn't attempt it without at least carrying snowshoes with me. I don't think it gets packed down well enough that you can just spike it without doing a whole lot of post-holing. It's also surprisingly difficult to follow the trail if it hasn't been broken already, or if it has been broken by somebody who also couldn't find the trail!

With the regular snowfall over the past two weeks, and more today and this weekend, it's certainly possible that any previous tracks have been lost again.

edit: and as a reminder, to hike 151 in winter, you'll need a backcountry permit and are required to sign in at the Hart Prairie Lodge.
https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/coconino ... eprd479744
I'm not sure if the government shutdown has affected the ability to obtain these permits.

[OdinWiski]

@chumley
Thank you! I figured the same. I'd definitely use a gps track and follow closely. I'm concerned about the dog post-holing a lot while I can have snowshoes.

A friend of mine who has never done it wanted to do it and he doesn't have snowshoes. Nor does my wife. I carried mine both times I did it without having to use them. I looked into REI rental for them because I had heard that ironically the one in Tempe had them for rent and the one in Flag didn't a few years ago. Surprised to find out that the one in Tempe has moved to Chandler and they don't carry them for rent now. I was aware of the Permit requirements. We may have to push this off to sometime in Feb.

[Jim]

Permits can be obtained from the ski lodge on weekends during the shutdown. Otherwise, I would just do what I want, as if you can't get them, and there is no enforcement, then they can't really exclude you. That is me, though.