Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

The NWS puts out graphics like this from time to time, and this was from yesterday. It's pretty depressing to me.

While we're still running ahead of the record-shattering summer of 2020, the near-term forecast looks like we'll get 3 or 4 more 110s before the pattern shifts and tropical moisture keeps temps down heading toward the end of the month, and I anticipate this will keep this year a few days short of the 2020 threshold.

[RedRoxx44]

Looking at weather at Ocotillo, Ca ( southern end of Anza Borrego) looks promising for sig rain out of the hurricane and awesome temps forecast --77 for a high on Sunday! Depending on what is going on just might have to run over on Sat after I see mom and stay till Mon or so.
If I do will throw in the pick, shovel and some sand boards. And of course rain gear--- shout out to Columbia outdry extreme nanolite rain jacket-- awesome and will not wet out.

[rwstorm]

@RedRoxx44
Don't tempt me. That area was a focal point for flooding last September when Kay followed a similar trajectory to the current storm. Insane winds at higher elevations as well. Should be wild.

[RedRoxx44]

@rwstorm
Yeah, I am seeing what I might be able to do. I would love to pack a light BP and get over to Tunnel 21 on the tracks, camp inside and run around with camera above Carrizo Gorge.

[RedRoxx44]

Current storm hilary has a similar path to Kathleen of 76, which was a bad one for southern cali deserts.

[ youtube video ]

[RedRoxx44]

Death Valley NP still closed as result of Hilary. Some impressive photos and video https://www.nps.gov/deva/learn/nature/hilary.htm

[Jim]

Most members are from Phoenix, so I thought I would share. I found this impressive.

Officially, in Phoenix for July at Sky Harbor,

30 of the 31 days were 110 to 119 degrees. Only July 31st was under 110, and it was officially 108.

17 of 31 days were 115 to 119 degrees. I can't remember anything like that during my 5 & 1/2 years in Phoenix.
13 days were 116 to 119 degrees.
8 days were 117 to 119 degrees
7 days were 118 and 119 degrees

3 days were 119 degrees for the high!

Fortunately, so far, Phoenix did not reach 120 degrees, yet. Maybe in a year, or two?




https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=psr

It is set to monthly by default, and change to July with the calendar.

[big_load]

That's just plain hot. I wish we could send some of our rain.

[RedRoxx44]

Some of the weather services reporting Arizona as a whole the 20th hottest summer and the 10th driest. Some areas of course more record breaking than others.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
Sure was hot this summer, but it came after a pretty cold winter and it extended into a cool spring. It wasn't even hot here until the end of June, almost July. July was sort of what June should have been. The summer heat was also related to a weak monsoon. California had a huge snowpack with precipitation totals well above normal extending across the great basin, Utah, and into parts of Wyoming and western Colorado.

Flagstaff was actually very wet this last winter and spring, with Snowbowl open until Memorial Day. It was their longest season ever. Water year and calendar year totals remain well over normal, too. Seems this year was very much a year of pendulum swings and some strong contrasts.

[chumley]

2023 will now result in PHX tallying the 3rd most days of 100F or higher. While it seems likely that we will add at least 3 more days over 100 based on current forecast models, we would need 12 more to reach the #2 spot. As neither of the two years with more 100s than this year had ANY 100s this late in the year, it seems to be a stretch that we could get 12 more. But I refuse to place bets on these things anymore.

[Alston_Neal]

Up on the Rim chasing colors yesterday and couldn't help notice all the smoke to the north. Joe's sidebar shows a bunch of prescribed burns. So is it the high pressure system holding this all down?

[RedRoxx44]

Death Valley having some sort of upside down response to storms. Some roads still closed but there is a lake on the Badwater Playa and a flower bloom going on. The rangers seem to think the flowers are confused. I think it's moisture and optimal warmth and sunlight. Sounds like a great time to visit there.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
I guess that unusually heavy August rain made them think it was March? If the strong El Nino produces a wet winter, next spring might be interesting for you. If it is like 2015-16, not so much. At least the playa turned into a lake is neat to see right now.

[big_load]

I saw two fresh roadkill snakes yesterday in NJ. We should be at the end of snake season, but the roads will be the last place to warm up, so there could be another week or two before it's just too cool for them to come out.

Meanwhile, it's our eighth consecutive rainy weekend.

[RedRoxx44]

@Jim_H
I hope upcoming spring is good. Although right now a lot of the roads I use are still closed and doesn't seem like a lot of them will be ready in 2024. The route thru Steel Pass has been wiped out; it seems the park service will restore it. I am a bit surprised at that as it was established by illegal 4 wheeling years ago. However some people use it to get in and out of saline valley if the north and south passes are closed. Otherwise quite a bit of the park is still off limits except the main tourist thoroughfares.

[big_load]

I saw two fresh roadkill snakes yesterday in NJ. We should be at the end of snake season, but the roads will be the last place to warm up, so there could be another week or two before it's just too cool for them to come out.

Meanwhile, it's our eighth consecutive rainy weekend.

We just hit a few days of near-record warmth, so I saw two snakes out and about today. Also a pair of bald eagles, which despite their proximity, didn't reveal the location of Mexico City.

[Jim]

@big_load
Enjoy it! It has finally not been record warmth, here. Looks like highs below 80 some days next week, and the highest forecast temp in the 10 day is about 88. Very pleasant!

[big_load]

@big_load
Enjoy it! It has finally not been record warmth, here. Looks like highs below 80 some days next week, and the highest forecast temp in the 10 day is about 88. Very pleasant!

It is quite enjoyable, coming as it does during the peak of leaf color, so I've been getting all the trail miles I can.

Also, I'm counting the days to our next AZ trip, which starts in three weeks.

[big_load]

Today was crazy. 84F at Newark Airport, and five snakes on the trail today, mostly little ones. For comparison, about ten years ago at Halloween, we had about 8" of snow on the ground.