Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

7 day precip model ending the 26th. Also, Wrightson has an 80% chance of storms on Saturday. QPF amounts are not super impressive, but 1/2 an inch in June would actually be impressive, even at 9,000'. Does this stick around, or is this just a fluke?

2022 had an early monsoon flow, beginning in later June it went very strongly, all the way to very late October or early November. I couldn't hike Wrightson for several weeks in August due to heavy storm development by 11 AM virtually everyday, and excessive rainfall. Who knows, maybe there will be another very wet summer, but time will tell.

[RedRoxx44]

Yes, looking at the Huachuca mountains and Nogales along the border right now predicting a lot of activity for 5 of the 10 day forecasts. It felt a little more humid on my hood walk this morning.

[azbackpackr]

A big thunderstorm dumped on those fires by Ruidoso today. "Catastrophic" flash floods were predicted. There are a lot of news stories about it, if you want to Google Ruidoso fire news. They removed some of the fire crews from the area.

A lot of this news story seems to be supposition, because they can't get into the area to verify if there were floods.
https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/ruidoso- ... -flooding/

[Jim]

Starting to feel like a winter storm, where they predict a lot of rain and I wonder if it will actually come. Hopefully, the ranges around Tucson get it.

[RedRoxx44]

Interesting watching the rain icons change up almost by the hour. Nogales now rain chance every day for the seven day starting tomorrow; 80% chance on Sunday. Haven't looked at Sierra vista but I imagine the same and moreso for Cochise county; the traditional monsoon start area.

[Jim]

Well, the Ritas had some pretty good rain yesterday. Not sure about the higher terrain, but Florida Canyon reports 1.42". Radar estimates as much as 3 inches over the Crest and upper Madera Canyon area, and perhaps over Wrightson itself. Should be getting green down there pretty fast if that happened.

[RedRoxx44]

@Jim_H
More east and south tucson got hammered. Weather report on X a 72mph wind gust recorded at the Tucson airport the highest one recorded since 1960. In the village of Sahuarita we got zip but the air cooled off markedly with the outflow and the petrichor was heavenly.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
There seem to have been a few lines of storms that have developed over the last 2 days from south of the Ritas up over the east side of Tucson, into the eastern Catalinas and over parts of the Rincons. Yesterday's were quite intense.

It is nice to see the Ritas actually get a heavy storm this summer, as they never seemed to last year. While the July through September 3 month precipitation forecast calls for below normal precip for the SW, this is a promising start. Heavy early rain in late June, as also happened in 2022, usually benefits the forest more than a dry start and heavy late summer rain.

Someone needs to get out and hike from Madera up Wrightson and over to Pine Saddle, and down to Shovel Saddle and back to Madera down the 4 Springs!

[RedRoxx44]

Light rain here; flooding in Tucson esp around Country Club, Grant etc.

[Jim]

In the last 4 days Wrightson has had more rain than I think it did all of last summer. Between 2 and 3 inches, but I think closer to 2 inches.

[RedRoxx44]

Flood warnings up in Nogales, gauges indicate nogales wash at overflow stage. Sky is black to the south.

[chumley]

PHX is slated to finish the month of June without a single day of below average temperatures. Yay.

[Jim]

Moisture seems to have really pulled back. 7 day QPF is nearly dry and this is only a short time after the same model showed a lot of rain potential for SE AZ. One has to wonder if those dry summer forecasts will come true. At leas the Ritas had over 3 inches before July 1. However, they had over 3 inches before July 1 and it always seems like freak wet periods in June end up with dry summers.

[RedRoxx44]

Looks like the last day for us for a while but we've had a couple of good gully washers. Right now flood and tstorm warnings are up to the north; a huge thunderhead out my front door I am trying to photograph. Getting some outflow but think it will go north. Long range has moisture returning mid July but who knows what that will turn out to be.

[Jim]

Late in the 7 day period models suggest a return to an active monsoon. Rain in the colonies, too. It rains here a lot.

[azbackpackr]

I'm in Tucson and it's raining.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr Try not to die. A internet weather farce predicted the annihilation of that forecast zone this afternoon.

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
Oh, that guy...

[SpiderLegs]

It was a crazy storm last night. NWS claimed that there were 40-50 mile gusts of wind in my area and I believe it. Wind picked up my grill and deposited it four feet away. A giant, heavy pool cover was moved across my yard.

[chumley]

@SpiderLegs sounds like a fairly typical monsoon-fueled severe thunderstorm.