Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

I like the sneaky storms that don't really register in the longer-term models and just keep looking better and better in the short term. Suddenly, the next 2-3 days might net better results than the last two systems that have brushed the state. Or maybe I'm just excited because there's finally a chance for a few inches of snow down to 5 or 6kft for the first time this season.

[RedRoxx44]

I cannot remember the last time an all day steady rain like this. I did a hood walk this morning in my long neglected rain jacket. Really nice.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
Yes, I see almost 3/4 of an inch of rain on Mount Hopkins today (no idea about snow on Wrightson as it has been in the high 30s on Hopkins for the rain), and well over an inch for 2026. Plus, about an inch of rain in several small storms between Christmas and Jan 1. At least in the Ritas, it's a much better winter than last year.

The forecast I saw called for up to 6 inches of snow at 9,000' in the Ritas, and a foot in the Catalinas. Wish I could see it. Oh, well.

[Jim]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=TWC

a listing of the totals around SE Arizona. Pretty substantial.

[Nighthiker]

1.5 inches of rain at my home in Payson.

[RedRoxx44]

News outlets announcing that California as a whole is out of their drought status for the first time in 25 years. Not so most of the rest of the southwest.

[big_load]

News outlets announcing that California as a whole is out of their drought status for the first time in 25 years. Not so most of the rest of the southwest.

Meanwhile, much of NJ is now in "severe drought", parts of it for the third year in row.

[azbackpackr]

@RedRoxx44
I saw that. But all of San Diego's reservoirs are low. I call pumpkin on this pronouncement.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr
A drought monitor that changes weekly is sort of laughable as far as I'm concerned.

[Jim]

Ski the Lemmon may be reporting 12 inches from the last storm, but they also report it isn't sufficient to operate the resort. Snowbowl reports 18 inches fell over the last week. Respectable.
But:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ns/610day/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /index.php
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i12.gif

Doesn't look like much of any rain or snow for AZ, and the upper Colorado Basins over the next 2 weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... php?lead=2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... php?lead=3
Beyond that, continued dry and warm for the 4 corners.

Interestingly, the Upper Colorado Basin is actually having it's driest snow water year of the 30 year period.
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/su ... Headwaters

Powell continues to draw down, but that is expected until snow melt begins.

Jan 20:
Appears that an El Nino may be developing as La Nina fades. What effect it may have on summer precipitation and later winter precip, will remain to be seen.

[Jim]

Interesting low moving across the northern Baja appears to be creating a storm that will affect places no one cares about, but will also affect Arizona and New Mexico over the next few days, before moving out to those other unimportant places.

Odd that it moved so far south it won't affect California at all, and Utah and Colorado don't seem to be getting much of anything. Can't say that trajectory will bolster any kind of Colorado River snow pack, but maybe it helps in northern New Mexico and the Rio Grande.

[RedRoxx44]

Got some rain, I doubt it was an eighth of an inch in my backyard but any rain appreciated. Lots of heavier rain bands around. On a side note Lake Manley returned to Death Valley but is receding so the Park Service has banned kayaking etc due to visitor damage on the Salt Flats.

[chumley]

@RedRoxx44
The radar analysis shows some pretty respectable totals in the southeastern quadrant of the state, especially in the higher terrain areas. The rest of us didn't see much. Still, the way things have been going, even a few hundredths is worth celebrating! I'm just looking forward to another couple of days with highs that don't start with a 7 or 8 for a change.

[Nighthiker]

Went to Safeway in Payson, rained while returning to my vehicle. Went across the street to Walgreens, no rain and ground was dry. Went to Home Depot and it was raining East side of 87. Home Depot was dry and about a dozen elk crossed 87 to graze on the West side of 87. Local weather forecast did list scattered showers for Payson.

[RedRoxx44]

Went to the Border, where in places there was lots of water.

[chumley]

Just a random observation. The normal high temperature at this time of year in Phoenix should be in the 60s. SIXTIES.

[big_load]

Just a random observation. The normal high temperature at this time of year in Phoenix should be in the 60s. SIXTIES.

I could use some normal temperatures. Even NJ normal temperatures would be nice.

[AZLumberjack]

@chumley
These record highs at this time of year don't bode well for the summer months.

[Jim]

I can not speak to 1986 or 2003.

I remember 2018 in Phoenix wasn't particularly bad. No idea about monsoonal flow that summer, but there was a tropical system to affect the valley in early October. I remember this vividly, as my new house's dirt yard was mud for a week.

2014 was a very wet summer in Tucson. Rain started early in late June, and lasted well into October or November, but some of that was from tropical systems, as there were 2 or 3 that late summer or fall.

It is anecdote, and history doesn't always repeat, but I would lean towards a wetter July to September this summer, possibly with temperatures that are at least not extremely hot. No idea if that moisture penetrates into the Rockies. 2018 in CO was almost as dry as this winter, but 2014 was rather wet.

Thinking of NJ, I am wondering if NJ will have a hot summer, since the NE USA has been so cold this winter. Most of the lower 48 has enjoyed (or enjoyed vociferously complaining about) warmer and much warmer than normal temperatures since later November. It's been very cold here in the Northeast, and the so called "warm" or mild periods were really just normal, not 20 degrees above normal.

[chumley]

@AZLumberjack
I don't know that one necessarily correlates to the other, but I certainly hope not! There is a very good indication of a shift away from the current La Niña influence as soon as next month, and forecasts leaning toward El Niño conditions by later this summer. Of course, while the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific often result in some common outcomes, they are are not a guarantee of what will happen. So, we sit on the patio sipping iced tea in February chatting about the weather with our neighbors.