I've been planning on hiking the Pine Mountain segment (#21) of the Arizona Trail this weekend for several weeks. http://hikearizona.com/decoder=2435 But, now with the rain, I'm not sure.
My two worries are:
1) The road up to the trailhead - El Oso Road. Does anyone have any experience driving on it wet? If I drive up, will I be "ruining" the road by driving on it? Yes, the Forest Service is working on the road, but I'd hate to "un-do" all their hard work.
2) Sycamore Creek - the trail crosses the creek a mile or two before the end. With the burn upstream a year or two ago - what will it be like? How much of this rain will soak in, and how much will run off - right to where I'm hiking? Do I want to try and out-run a flash flood?
I don't mind hiking in the rain, and I'm actually looking forward to it (I'm an Arizona native!). But, I'd rather not become a headline on the evening news.
Your thoughts and suggestions would be appreciated.
I wouldn't worry so much about hurting the road-- El Oso and Four Peaks Road get tons of use and will get torn up no matter what.
El Oso is super steep and there are parts where you drive on exposed rocks (though no high clearance is typically needed). My 2wd Sonoma makes it up just fine except the time I took it too fast and overheated . If there's rain, getting up it might depend on what kind of tires you have. 4wd might be recommended in wet conditions. Someone with more experience might say differently.
You might contact Tonto about Sycamore Creek. We sandbagged the old ranger station next to the creek after the fire so they were definitely worried about flash floods then-- but that was preparing for monsoon season. Its been a super dry winter so its probably impossible for anything remotely like a flash flood to happen after just a weekend of rain. The ground isn't saturated so any rain should soak right in.
If you're fine hiking and camping in the rain, I wouldn't cancel anything. Set up camp high. In the unlikely case of a flash flood-- do not try to outrun in. Just head to higher ground.
1. I've driven El Oso in rain and snow. It can handle travel during wet conditions quite well. But there is some question as to the work they are doing. Sometimes if a road has been recently graded, and not yet packed down by traffic, there can be a couple of inches of mud that you will leave tracks in. I don't think there's any way of knowing the conditions without getting up there and seeing for yourself. I also believe that El Oso is on a regular grading schedule (separate from the current maintenance) that would normally happen in spring anyway, so I wouldn't worry too much about leaving some fresh tracks in the mud, if it comes to that. (High clearance and/or 4wd recommended just in case)
2. Depending on the amount of rain, Sycamore Creek may flow, but given the dry winter, the first inch of rain that falls will most likely be absorbed and result in very little surface flow. However, if the area upstream gets 2-3" of rain (definitely possible with the current forecast) it would not surprise me to see Sycamore flowing. But I still wouldn't let that stop me if I was going. Even if it flows, it would likely not be a true flooding event since this rainfall will be spread over 24-48 hours. The dangerous floods happen when 2-3" of rain falls in an hour or two, typically in monsoon storms. In the worst case scenario, you could do the last mile off-trail, staying north of the creek. Just cross the creek on the Beeline bridge when you get there.
There's been some vegetation growth since the fire, so the extreme runoff conditions have dissipated significantly.
You should obviously stick to something that you are comfortable with, but if it was me, I wouldn't let the forecast conditions or road construction stop me from making this trip.
I'm not sure what my spirit animal is, but I'm confident it has rabies.
Even as one who doesn't mind hiking in the rain I would give weight to two main points:
1. Overnight Friday rains and all day Saturday... the road will probably be saturated by Saturday am and quite greasy.
2. Sycamore Creek on the Bushnell Tanks end will very likely be a rushing torrent. (Not a 'flash-flood' but a continuing heavy flow)
Be careful!
Know before you go
There are no "hydrological products" issued for this storm. (Flood watch, flood warning, flash flood wash, flash flood warning, flood advisory, etc.)
From the National Weather Service Phoenix:
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM...NORMALLY DRY WASHES COULD BEGIN RUNNING AND LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
From the National Weather Service Flagstaff:
THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT WITH THIS EVENT IS LOW...THOUGH SOME RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CAN CERTAINLY BE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.
I don't think it'll be anything near this ... and this is about what I would consider to be a fantastic day on the trails! http://hikearizona.com/photo=311671
I'm not sure what my spirit animal is, but I'm confident it has rabies.
this is depressing..I tried to find a hike from nearest time of year last year, to compare potential conditions..and check this out...snow covered peaks in Supes and a raging W. Pinto Creek..stark contrast compared to current conditions..this pic is along the 60 near Top of the World and its from March 9...but maybe it means there is hope for more to come before warm weather comes..
With the very high chance that any other weekend will be "clear and a million" conditions, I'd wait. Just personal opinion. I don't like El Oso road in any condition, keep feeling like I'll roll off the decomposing granite ball bearings. Add a little water and whatever work was done on it and maybe it's time to clean the garage, or do taxes, or mend sox, or ???
Shawn
The bear went over the mountain to see what he could see.
With all respect to Sredfield and CannondaleKid: I absolute LOVE that most Zonies have similar opinons! More for me to enjoy in peace and solitude.
I figure there are about 360 days a year I can hike in a dry rocky wash with a pleasant blue sky over me. It's those other 5 days that I get to spin my wheels trying to ascend a steep hill, wade through a running stream, enjoy the constant drip of water off the bill of my cap, and the extra weight of trudging through the mud! When I get home, the hose is used as much on my clothes and boots as it is needed to spray the mud from under my wheel wells.
*I'm not totally a reckless idiot either. You couldn't pay me to drive El Oso in the snow. I did it once, never again. But rain and mud don't bother me on this road.
I'm not sure what my spirit animal is, but I'm confident it has rabies.
I agree...I wish I knew how to make that two cents emoticon thing everyone does...but here is my two cents..."the Gods favor the bold" you are right to be cautious, but I find whenever I dwell over worries like roads, conditions, etc..once I get to actual hike, I always think, "gosh I am glad, I decided to go, its not as bad as I thought"
you said it yourself that you like hiking in rain, well the opportunity now presents itself, at least go check it out and play it by ear from there, worse case scenario you get to have a scenic drive in rain and maybe watch some T-storms...
I will be with you in spirit, going to play in rain myself tomorrow...destination Supes...have fun..my vote is for "GO"
friendofThundergod wrote:I wish I knew how to make that two cents emoticon thing everyone does
Just click on the words 'more smilies!' to the right of the box you type in and it pops up a whole bunch of smilies, with the the 11th one across the top.
chumley wrote:With all respect to Sredfield and CannondaleKid: I absolute LOVE that most Zonies have similar opinions! More for me to enjoy in peace and solitude.
I completely agree with you as I love the solitude as well.
That being said, I felt it was worth kicking in my 2 cents to exercise caution as much for the road & creek conditions as that passage #21 of the AZT is a 19 mile hike. If it takes longer to drive the road that will eat into hiking time so it could be an even longer day.
And just because the NWS says flooding isn't expected doesn't mean there may not be higher flow than you'd wish to cross.
BTW, the AZT crosses Sycamore Creek twice before arriving at Bushnell Tanks, so heading up to cross at the highway will only avoid the second of the two crossings.
I'm not saying don't go, I'm just saying to think smart and be fully prepared.
Caution is always the best plan. But I usually choose to exercise it based on what I see when I'm there, rather than sitting at home wondering about it.
I revisited this thread because I now see that the gauges upstream of Sycamore at the Beeline crossing have received 3 inches of rain since this morning.
The only streamflow gauge on Sycamore Creek is much farther downstream (FS402 near Sugarloaf Mtn) and may receive the benefit of additional "tributaries" draining into it, but it flashed at 8:00 tonight, exceeding 2000cfs and rising to over 6 feet.
Obviously not the kind of flow you could cross without a bridge. It has begun to drop, but additional showers tonight will probably lead to increased flow with saturated ground.
I'm not sure what my spirit animal is, but I'm confident it has rabies.
All,
Thank you all SO MUCH for your advice and ideas. :thanx:
To make a long story short, I chose to go. I'm now home - safe and sound (sorta). I'll go over the details when I post the triplog.
Sycamore Creek had a good flow. IMO, just shy of dangerous. The first crossing I hopped over using boulders. The second crossing (following the access trail from the AZT sign down to the parking lot) there were no handy boulders. So, I picked a quiet stretch, faced upstream, and slowly and carefully side-stepped my way across, using my hiking poles for balance. That water was COLD! Kinda felt good! The water was up to mid-shin.
Route Editor
Route Scout
. If there's rain, getting up it might depend on what kind of tires you have. 4wd might be recommended in wet conditions. Someone with more experience might say differently. 
