San Juan Fire in White Mtns. west of Springerville

[azbackpackr]

Fire west of Springerville:
New: San Juan: 10 miles NE of McNary. 50-100 acres. 34.137N, 109.674W. 4 airtankers, 1 Lead, 1 SEAT, 1 T1 Helo, T1 crew ordered.

My friend took the photo.

[azbackpackr]

Apparently very visible from town. I'm going to call my renters, ask them if they can see it from my house in Eagar.

[azbackpackr]

My former co-worker said it's over by Vernon. She said that Eagar FD is on stand-by, also.

[azbackpackr]

Here is an article from the local fish wrap. Also, my fire dept. friend said fire is heading generally toward Greens Peak.
http://www.wmicentral.com/news/apache_c ... 963f4.html

[azbackpackr]

Fire is now about 3 miles long, 2,000 acres.

[chumley]

This time lapse video posted on AZCentral makes the fire appear to be "healthy". At least on the lee side. Ground fire, no torching, no crowns.
http://bcove.me/vjlsmai7

The video may be a misleading snapshot of a much wider event, but I find it to be interesting nonetheless.

[outdoor_lover]

It'll be interesting to see what they determine as "Cause"...Right now, it's still unknown, but approximate Time of Origin is 12:00 A.M.....

[friendofThundergod]

The end of next week seems like forever away probably in this case, but looks like significant rain is heading to that area perhaps as early as next Friday...that was just from Weather Bug though.so I don't know if one can hang their hat on that..

[chumley]

The sexy NWS models seem to agree:

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...WE ARE CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER CHANCES. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WE MAY BE LOOKING AT THE ONSET OF THE MONSOON BY LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

The funny thing here is that it's the NWS that established the June 15 "onset" of the monsoon ... and yet in their own forecast discussion they are referencing the actual shift in wind/increase in moisture rather than the date-based system they created. :roll:

[friendofThundergod]

@chumley
about right 4th of July weekend...rain in forecast..lol

[azbackpackr]

Red Cross has set up an evacuation center at the Middle School in Eagar (where I used to substitute teach a lot and just down the street from my house). They are calling in more teams. Just keep checking on wmicentral.com for updates.

I don't know if they are over-reacting. Maybe so, maybe not. However, it is common in that area for SOME (not all) emergency management people to kind of over-react, in my opinion. Mostly because various law enforcement and other officials love the public exposure they get. (Some of them may want to run for office later on.) Also, they have a slew of trained volunteers just itching to get out there and use the skills they've learned. I could go into the politics of it a bit more, but someone who lives there might read it and get their feathers all ruffled. (Yes, I am very, very glad I no longer live there! And not because of any nearby fires! You could die of depression living there.)

[azbackpackr]

PS, after 6 p.m. the newspaper reported fire to at least 5,000 acres and has jumped containment lines. 90 structures threatened.

[chumley]

It'll be interesting to see what they determine as "Cause"...Right now, it's still unknown, but approximate Time of Origin is 12:00 A.M.....

From Inciweb (http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/3912/):
Cause: Human Caused, Under Investigation
Date of Origin: Thursday June 26th, 2014 approx. 11:30 AM

[azbackpackr]

Looking at that map, the fire doesn't have very far to go in that direction before it hits the grass. Grass fires in that area can really fly, and can burn 10,000 acres in a few short hours, but the recovery of the land afterward is very, very quick. A year later you can barely tell they happened.

Why must they confuse us with "12:00 a.m.?" I confess I can never remember if that is midnight or daytime. It seems to me it is nighttime, although it makes no sense. It ought to be 12:00 p.m. that is midnight, and 12:00 a.m. that is daytime. Why not just use military time? So much easier to figure out.

[friendofThundergod]

@azbackpackr

It ought to be 12:00 p.m.

It ought to be 2400 hours not that anyone ever says 2400, however, certainly some merit in a system of telling time that starts with the first hour of the day 0100 and ends with the 24th hour of the day 2400..

Everyone hates military time, but I think it's one thing they do right..;) Plenty of other nations agree...too easy! remember everything in Army is done to lowest common denominator, about a sixth grade level sadly..but those boys never get confused about a.m and p.m lol

Glad you see merit in military time as well!

[SuperstitionGuy]

I always thought that AM meant "at midnight"

[chumley]

I always thought there was no such thing as 2400 hours. That's 0000 in my book. But then I'm no military guy either.

And I still prefer seeing tv, movies, trains and planes listed as 17:30 rather than 5:30pm. It's just easier.

[friendofThundergod]

@chumley
No you are right no one says 2400hrs I was just using it as example..2300 is generally as high as one would go, then it's colorful times such as 0 dark 30 etc

[azbackpackr]

Closure of Ft. Apache Reservation to recreation, except for developed areas: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/article/3912/22148/

[azbackpackr]

This fire has mostly served to create a grandstanding opportunity for the local politicians who are running for office. They called in the Red Cross, which set up an evacuation center in Eagar, and nobody went there. A friend of mine works as a firefighting administrator in the area. He said even he didn't know why the Red Cross was there. The local officials like to over-react because it's such a mind-numbingly boring and depressing place to live, they have to create some excitement for everyone. Plus, it puts their names into the news. They think that will help get them elected next time around, and, sadly, it probably will.

Meanwhile, the Forest Service firefighters are doing their job, and the fire is moving where it obviously was going to move all along, which is into the previously "treated" forest area and toward the grasslands. So, they torched the grasslands in front of the fire last night. So, that's basically going to be the end of this fire. The grass needs to burn every several years anyway, so it's not any kind of loss.