Late Fall Southbound Thru-hike

[Josh Yates]

I'm thinking of trying to thru-hike the AZT this year starting southbound around the end of October/first of November. Hopefully I would be finished by mid to late December.

My main concerns are:

- What kind of cold temperatures will I likely encounter.
- What will the water sources be like that time of year.

I know the first question will be very reliant on how the weather systems roll in and where I'm at along the trail when they do. But in general, what should I be prepared for?

As far as water, my understanding is that the water could be pretty scarce late fall/early winter because it's generally the winter snows that refill the water sources as opposed to the summer monsoon. The water reports I've been able to find so far are mostly from the spring months.

I have a decent bit of long distance backpacking experience. I've also spent some time in southern Utah in winter but most of that was just car camping and one nighters.

Any information or suggestions of where I might find some is greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Josh

[azbackpackr]

Personally I'd think that's a bit late in the season, especially if we get the El Niño winter weather pattern, which is predicted this coming winter. Very occasionally we'll have significant snowfall in October in the high country, even when it's not an El Niño winter, although it will generally melt off very quickly. I've seen two feet at the South Rim in October. And we'll have snow even more often in November. Sure, often we do have a very dry winter, but we are due for the big one right now. Just my opinion, based on the predictions and my memories of fall snowstorms.

Edit: I read some of the very recent predictions. They are still mostly predicting an early El Niño event, although it may end by January. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Josh Yates]

Thanks for the info.

I know it's not ideal but I'll probably try it anyway.

Any idea on late fall water situation this year?

[azbackpackr]

I'd contact the AZT Association. Also, keep checking back here because sometimes those folks post here.