Winter thru-hike?

[Flaco1]

Im wanting to thru hike the trail startin 1/1/16. Due to my work schedule this is about the only time of year i can fit it in. Would this be feasible? I live in TN & hiked the applalachian trail in knee deep snow last winter so i have plenty of experience with winter & snow camping but would snow shoes be needed? & what about parking/shuttles from the northern terminus? Water sources in the winter? Any help or guidance to help would be much appreciated!

[blisterfree]

Variations on this question have been asked and answered in recent years and should be searchable. The biggest differences are the remoteness of the Arizona Trail compared with the Appalachian Trail, the longer distances between resupply, the difficulty of following the Arizona Trail in snow since it's not blazed at regular intervals like the AT, and the fact that you may well be walking almost continuously in snow for the entire northern half of the hike above the Mogollon Rim, ESPECIALLY this coming winter with El Nino predicted to be off-the-charts in terms of strength. Also, it'll be cold at night, almost every night, and very cold the northern half (teens, single digits or colder) without much of a break, whereas the AT tends to offer more of a reprieve at lower elevations and given the frequent changes in weather from day to day.

Knee deep snow north of the Grand Canyon in February would be unlikely this winter. More like waist deep or deeper would be a reasonable guess, and there are no plowed roads or traffic for a bail-out. Yes, snowshoes or skis would be essential in places. Winter and spring snowstorms up on the Kaibab Plateau, while often brief, can be brutal, with a driving wind.

[Flaco1]

Thanks! & your rite about previous posts. As soon as i posted the question i saw the previous links. So you really believe the el nino will make that much of a difference this year? I always have a hard time believing long range forecasts. Also, I hiked the grand canyon a few years ago in February & there were patches of a snow a few inches deep under the trees on the south rim but once you dropped down into the canyon it was pretty warm during the day, chilly at night, & snow free. Thats the kind of the weather that im planning for: south of Pine having weather similar to what i saw down in the canyon & north of Pine similar to what i saw on the rim. & i figured north of the canyon gets buried. Does that sound about rite? When it does snow, how long does it usually stick? (South of the mogollon rim? North of the mogollon rim?) Itll snow here pretty regularly but it never sticks for more than a few days before most of it is melted. Thank you for your answers & your time!!

[Flaco1]

I gotta admit, the idea of hiking the desert in the snow kind of intrigues me... At least finding water wouldn't be a problem!

[Sredfield]

Very late March, 2010, I was forced off the AZT at Manning Camp by 4+ feet of snow. It wasn't for more than a mile or so, and one can post hole for a ways, but when your feet don't hit bottom, you can't get very far. Snow shoes would have done the trick but they were in the Park Service cabin and the ranger wasn't about to lend them out.

That was a wet year, thru hikers were bailing out north of the Mogollon Rim because of 2+ feet of snow on the level for many miles.

The AZT is a lot of work, expense and planning. In good weather conditions it's a grand, joyous adventure. In bad weather it would be a brutal slog. Why fight the calendar?

[johnlp]

Segment 1 from the Mexico border gets up to 9000 ft so you'll find out right away about hiking in the snow. It rarely snows below 5000 ft here, but a lot of the state is well above that elevation. The temperature gets below zero at times every winter near Grand Canyon, so be ready for that as well.

[FOTG]

the idea of hiking the desert in the snow kind of intrigues me

There won't be any snow in the desert, but if the idea of being stranded on a mountain 9000 feet up in four feet of snow intrigues you, I say do it ;)

Not an AZT Trail expert, but I do get out on the trails a little in winter and I am not sure I would even want to tackle some of those higher elevations in the winter. Remember the Appalachian Trail = highway, with max elevation of 6,660 feet, AZT Trail more of foot path/traditional trail in spots with what it looks like a max elevation of up to 9400 feet near the peaks and several other spots considerably higher than 6,600, that makes a world of difference. Its not the Smokies man. Now add in a little route finding because of the snow depths and things could get dicey. I don't even know if I would want to hike across the Mazzies in any real snow..That being said if you possess the knowledge and skills, its certainly not impossible and conditions will only get better with a mild winter..

[blisterfree]

Long-range forecasts are generally worth a grain of salt, I agree. But a strong El Nino is closely correlated with above average precipitation in the Southwest, we are already in such a pattern (it may be negatively affecting the North American monsoon this summer, which is common), and this pattern is likely to grow stronger over the fall and winter. (Shawn's 2010 experiences reflect a moderate El Nino that year, not a strong one. 2005 was a fair bit stronger, and 1998 was a powerhouse - that's what may be in store this winter).

Now, sometimes El Nino can also produce warmer-than-average conditions, in which case more of what would otherwise fall as snow could end up being rain. But in any case, wetter than average seems very likely. I would plan on it, rather than hoping it doesn't happen. And when it does happen, I would actually pray for more snow than rain above the Mogollon Rim, because the soils in that region are an absolute nightmare to hike on when they're saturated. It's one thing to wait out a spring storm, when the next day's warmth and sun will dry out the ground, but in winter you could end up slogging for days with boots that sink into the quicksand-like terrain with every step, collecting that mud on your treads all the while, as though encasing your feet in cement blocks. It's quite an experience to behold.

[Flaco1]

The el nino will just be another thing to watch out for. Thanks for everyone's advice. I think i'll just get started & stay flexible, very tuned into the weather, be ready to bail if needed, & just see how far i get. If i have to bail early i'll just do some extra hiking in the grand canyon to make up for it.