Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[SuperstitionGuy]

53 degrees, clear and sunny in Denver, Colorado this morning....

[cactuscat]

1.6 inches of rain in an hour and a half last night. Plus strong wind, hail, and big lightning ... felt sorry for the tent campers!

[chumley]

100 degrees in Phoenix today. Broke the old 98 degree record and becomes the new latest 100 degree reading.

[Jim]

@chumley
Which was impressive, because it was overcast and fairly miserable for being 100 and dry. Usually, it is a sunny and pleasant dry 100.

[chumley]

Good looking radar screen this afternoon. There's a lot of red and yellow over parts of the map that were in the forecast area with a 0% chance of rain today.

[cactuscat]

Got rained on yesterday coming home from Bowie. Tenth of an inch here over night. Raining again now ... nice Fall weather in SE AZ.

[Jim]

My guess is that this is well timed to start poppies growing, or whatever flower like November rains in the desert. Crowd pleasing poppies in the Phoenix Preserves.


Also, if it lasts long enough, it will help wash away the urine from the summit of Piestewa Peak!! YAY!!!!

[chumley]

Though there's still a chance for a shower or two looking at radar, I'm pretty impressed with the .49" in my gauge. That's well above what was predicted as few as 6 hours ago!

[big_load]

It seems pretty warm for this time of year. My pack thermometer reached 85F Sunday, 90 yesterday, and 105 today (although I really doubt it was much over 90 in clear air). I've hiked this same week in AZ for the last 15 years and only once was it close to being this warm.

[CannondaleKid]

@big_load There's a pretty good reason for the temps... check this out:
Astronomy Picture of the Day

[big_load]

@CannondaleKid
That's a very worthy picture of the day.

[Jim]

Snow ball in the US Senate last year!! It's a frigid day outside.

[chumley]

With quotes like "a significant rain event" and "widespread moderate rainfall event" in the forecast, one can already begin to predict the pending poofy clouds floating by on an otherwise beautiful day.

But if for some reason it actually does rain, it will certainly be a welcome change. Snowbowl is still planning on opening tomorrow ... on a single narrow strip of manmade snow. Fotg wants to see 5 inches in the Supes . FWIW, it looks like any precipitation will be prolonged. The kind that actually soaks into the ground rather than running off on the surface.

Possibly good for the spring flower bloom.

Or it'll just be a pleasant, sunny, autumn day.

[The_Dude]

I am hoping for some of the good stuff...between Sunday night and Monday they are forecasting a half inch to 1 1/4" here in the Basin. Hell, I would take a couple tenths if it happens, beggars can't be choosers in the desert.

[Jim]

This storm is coming up from the SW, and will be warm. This is all well and good, but anecdotal memories of the last 6 years now, tell me that the dry winters with poor precipitation in California, or other places in the SW, had some storms that saved Arizona and came with moisture from the highly a-typical direction of the SW. At least for winter. About the only thing worse, are those frigid inside sliders that cross over the Sierra or Cascades well to the north, and descend to Arizona with minimal moisture but a deep freeze.

[chumley]

The PHX office has already begun to back-off their precipitation forecast with the latest model runs.

[Jim]

Well, it is still only November. Anything at this point is a lot, to me.

[The_Dude]

@chumley
Yeah, NOAA has cut it's totals in half since I looked yesterday. Thought it was too good to be true...

[Jim]

Well, time will tell, but totals appear to be back up. I could care less if it is snow or rain at this time, below 9,000', but the Phoenix watershed appears that it may pickup some beneficial reservoir filling precipitation.

Probably pretty good amounts to come for upper basin reservoirs, from the western slope of Colorado and into NM, or ski resorts like Wolf Creek and Purgatory.

Also, the model forecasts for southern California have come up, too. San Diego NWS thinks they will get a fair amount. Not bad for November.

Still, it is early and the models don't always handle things very well early in the season, so we'll see.

[garyc57]

After 4:00pm here in central Mesa, and we haven't had a single drop!