Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[rwstorm]

As of right now my July rain total is up to 7.45 inches, and still raining! This is a new record for my location (37 years of data). Previous most for July was 7.38 inches in 1990. Beat it about half hour ago.

[tibber]

It seems to me Phx got the spring rain and you all are getting the summer rain.

[rwstorm]

@tibber
Phoenix almost always does better than us during the winter rainy season.

[big_load]

After a couple w'eeks of alternating rain and humid gloom, it was beautiful cool, sunny day today in NJ. I did my brutal hill repeat workout and spent the evening at a minor league baseball game with fireworks afterward. It's mostly on rare days like this that I wouldn't rather be in the Southwest.

[SkyIslandHiker]

Wettest July on record for Tucson (6.79") with over two days to go:

http://www.kvoa.com/story/36002178/wett ... for-tucson

July 2017 will go down as the wettest July on record for Tucson surpassing July 1921 when 6.24" of rain fell.
This will also go down as the second wettest month ever recorded in Tucson just behind August 1955 with 7.93" of rain but there is still a couple days of good rain chances to add to our total.

[chumley]

Looks like an area of south Scottsdale across Tempe and into Mesa took the brunt of an impressive storm.

I tallied 1.8" ... it fell in just 45 minutes.

Streets are flooded and cars are stranded in my neighborhood. This one's gonna take a while to clean up.

[rcorfman]

My pool's water level raised at least two inches. The water's above the skimmer. It would be a great time to backflush but the yard is already completely saturated.

[rwstorm]

report from nerdville...

http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/a ... ing-fences

[chumley]

There's some pleasant weather forecast for the next couple of days, with lower dew points and cooler mornings that might be nice for hiking. Lows in the high country will be below normal with some areas dropping into the 30s! Not bad for August! Mornings in the 70s in the lower deserts are a nice monsoon respite too!

[SpiderLegs]

I went running yesterday morning and there were some cool air pockets along Trail 1A that were in the 60's. This is a great week to get out and do something.

[azbackpackr]

I'm homesick.

[chumley]

Looks like Hurricane Harvey is blowing up, coming out of almost nowhere!

The Texas coast is now set to deal with a major hurricane with winds in excess of 125mph by late tomorrow night.

If the forecast holds, the storm should basically stall and drop 20-30 inches of rain causing potentially catastrophic flooding.

This one could be a doozy.

So far I haven't seen any forecast models that show the moisture from the hurricane affecting Arizona weather, but that may be something to keep an eye on into next week.

[chumley]

Things do not look good for southeastern Texas. It's not like a local thunderstorm in Arizona that drops 3-4" of rain in an hour over a small area.

This is hundreds of square miles of 15+ inches of rain over the course of a couple days. Some forecasts call for localized amounts up to 35".

Spread a foot or two of water over hundreds of square miles and there's simply nowhere for it to go.

[RedRoxx44]

I hope those dealing with the hurricane aftermath safety and luck and hopefully preparation. My parents were in Hurricane Charley in Florida in 2004 when it came ashore as a Cat 4 but was fast moving so rainfall was not terrible. But parts of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda where they lived was leveled. I lost contact with them on a Friday nite, called my boss at like 11 pm and I was on the road from Tucson about 1 am. I drove pretty much straight thru, I picked up ice in Louisiana and filled the spare gas cans. I had a camp stove etc with me. Headed south on I-75 people were driving at high speeds south, Red Cross, Salvation Army, National Guard trucks, the commercial tree and construction companies. It seems I was one of few private vehicles.
I remember at the interstate exit the microwave tower looked like a pretzel and all the gas pumps were blown off the station islands off the exit. No signs or trees. I was in the Cherokee so I was prepared for driving around trees and debris, part of roofs etc in the road. My parents fortunately were unhurt and of course very surprised to see me. I had also picked up a generator as there was no power and this was August in Florida.
I spent the next week there, mostly on peoples roofs nailing tarps over holes. Retirement area with lots of elderly people afraid to leave; afraid of looting. We didn't see any official, re: National Guard, in our subdivision for four days. Used pool water to flush the toilets, cooked on gas and boiled water. Ate everything out of the fridge which we ran with the generator as well as fans. I had to go 40 miles one way to get gasoline, water. In town all the stores basically were giving away food or it was cash and carry as no power. Several days later Verizon brought in a portable tower as the area did not have cell service either. My parents also fortunately had stored bottled water, canned food, batteries, the general disaster supplies. The house had damage but was livable. When I left to go back they still did not have power, but got it back shortly after that. It was an experience I have never forgotten, and as my mother still says " You have to rely on yourself, don't expect anyone to help you, and be grateful when you do receive help."
Advice I stick to to this day.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

@chumley
The feeder bands were already hitting when I flew home from Houston this AM. Just got all the platforms evacuated yesterday and relocated aircraft to Lafayette. Glad to be home. Weather was crap to fly in yesterday to get the last workers off the platforms. Tornado warnings in Galveston, Texas. Hope my airport car is in one piece when I get back. I left it in the safest structure on the island.

[chumley]

@RedRoxx44
That's crazy. I was on Captiva in the spring of 06 -- 18 months later, and the island was still a near-disaster area. The eye passed over the island, and basically left nothing standing. I'll never forget seeing that.

@MtnBart01
Good luck with the car. Glad to hear you're home. Pretty sure I'd want no part of bouncing around a hurricane in a chipita whirlybird!

[tdwood]

In 1979, I survived Hurricane Frederic’s direct assault on Mobile, AL. My dad was on a temporary job assignment there and I had come to stay with him for a week. As a suburban California kid, I had never experienced anything like it, not even an earthquake. It came ashore at night (with no power, that's total darkness) as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. I had only arrived about 36 hours before the storm made landfall, so my first real look at the city came after the storm had passed. What a mess. And the sound of that wind.

[Jim]

Well, I filled my gas tank today, and I recommend people do so as well. If the rainfall forecast estimates end up being true, then I expect a Katrina type shut down of the oil and gas supply system, and prices can be expected to go up 25 to 50 cents a gallon, or more! Hopefully that is all, and maybe it won't happen, but we shall see. At the very least, next weekend is Labor Day Weekend, and prices usually go up then a little.

Back in 2005, after Katrina destroyed the city that should be abandoned but we for some reason felt the need to drain since it is mostly below sea level, New Orleans, gasoline prices in Philadelphia doubled if I recall correctly, from something like $1.50 a gallon, to over $3.30 a gallon. I am sure MtBart can enlighten us, but I expect oil rigs were shut down, and there is a lot of refining capacity in the east Texas area, even a 10% decrease in national supplies can increase prices at the pump a good amount, so with any luck, the flooding is not as bad as forecast.

[chumley]

There really aren't words for some of the video from Texas. So I won't bother trying.

In Arizona-related tropical news, it appears that by the end of the week a tropical system will develop around the tip of Baja California. This kind of tropical system has the potential to significantly enhance the moisture available for monsoon storm development in Arizona (at a minimum) or could lead to copious moisture, heavy rain, and areas of severe flooding (a less likely scenario).

Nonetheless, it's worth keeping an eye on as it may play a factor in Arizona weather over the Labor Day weekend into early next week.

[chumley]

It's HAZ Simp!
*unrelated to HikeArizona.com

As much as I'd like to pretend that people aren't this dumb, the fact is, they are. And the gub'ment is trying to settle to the lowest common denominator for the sake of saving lives. Seems like a worthy cause.

So no more confusing watches, warnings, and advisories!

Now it's just gonna be "you're fine" or "you're gonna die".
*my interpretation

The NWS is currently working with social scientists to design what is being called a "WWA Generalizable Survey". In this context, the word "Generalizable" is intended to convey that the results will apply across all demographics and can be interpreted as "generally" applicable for purposes of decision making.

Goals of the survey will include (1) to determine in a generalizable sense just how pervasive confusion and misunderstanding is with regard to the WWA terms, and (2) to test alternative language and phrases for the current "Watch" and "Advisory" language to assess whether they might be more readily understood.

The terms and phrases, which were carefully selected based on the results of previous social science research, will be tested in prototype products to assess user understanding and response. The results of this survey will be used to drive decision making as to whether further efforts should be planned to consider replacing these two terms. Results of the survey are expected to be available in early 2018.

In Arizona, we will primarily notice changes to our weather advisories for winter storms, flash/floods, heat and dust.

Read all about it here:
http://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/