Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

@sneakySASQUATCH
But, you like and chose to live in Colorado, and that is fairly normal April weather for you, so even though it is not 83 and sunny it is enjoyable? After the big heat here for the last few weeks, it is nice to have pleasant spring temps before I fear the oven kicks on again. Then again, the heat at 2000' in Marana won't be the same as it was at 1000' in Phoenix.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

@Jim_H
I’m happy about the snow. 6 years ago today we got 24” of snow overnight and yesterday was the 7th straight powder day in a row so it’s been a great riding season. Would be nice to hopefully not have half of Colorado burning all summer as well.

[FOTG]

Along the Young road today.

[RedRoxx44]

Was reading up on AZ drought conditions. A small note " some climate indicators that the summer monsoon might be wetter than normal"--yeah right I won't hold my breath. From the few cattle I've seen the cows look pretty poor trying to feed their calves; with poor grass and having to cover quite a bit of territory for water.

[Jim]

Wow, there is fresh snow on the slopes at Snowbowl. Still snowing in their webcams. I think May 2nd is the final day of their winter season, so this is kind of nice for them.

[chumley]

The arbitrary temperature by which we seem to hang our hats is the big 100F. Of course it's arbitrary because if we chose to use another unit of measurement, 100F would be meaningless. But I digress.

This "milestone" is in risk of being reached for the phirst time at the Sky Harbor paved hot lot on Thursday. It could happen Wednesday. Or not this week at all. But it's been 11 years since 100 happened so late in the year.

What does that mean? Really, nothing at all. April was considerably warmer than most of those previous 11 years despite not having a single day reach that arbitrary threshold that we get excited about.

Yay. #science

[chumley]

Weather statistics are often compared to "normal" values (was this year warmer than "normal"?) and those values are based on the averages over the last 30-year period. That 30-year period resets every decade, and since 2021 starts a new decade, the new "normal" values calculated based on readings from 1991-2020 have been implemented (whereas up until this year they were based on readings from 1981-2010).

So how did the "normal" readings change over the last 10 years? Most of Arizona's "normal" annual precipitation has dropped between 5% and 15% over the previous 30-year period of record, and the annual mean temperature is now about 0.5°F to 1.0°F warmer than the last period of record.

It's worth noting that across the west, these changes are reflected across vast swaths of sparsely or uninhabited land, and not limited to localized urban heat islands in places like the Phoenix metro.

Illustrations from the National Weather Service Phoenix office:

[Watauga]

Weather statistics are often compared to "normal" values (was this year warmer than "normal"?) and those values are based on the averages over the last 30-year period. That 30-year period resets every decade, and since 2021 starts a new decade, the new "normal" values calculated based on readings from 1991-2020 have been implemented (whereas up until this year they were based on readings from 1981-2010).

So how did the "normal" readings change over the last 10 years? Most of Arizona's "normal" annual precipitation has dropped between 5% and 15% over the previous 30-year period of record, and the annual mean temperature is now about 0.5°F to 1.0°F warmer than the last period of record.

It's worth noting that across the west, these changes are reflected across vast swaths of sparsely or uninhabited land, and not limited to localized urban heat islands in places like the Phoenix metro.

Illustrations from the National Weather Service Phoenix office:

That's an interesting point on what is considered "normal." I didn't realize that it was a rolling range like that.

[hikeaz]

Twain-
"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

[chumley]

Here's the change in monsoon moisture. It's striking to see the sharp change in the San Juans.

[toddak]

@chumley
I got monsooned on 5 days out of a 7-day backpack in the San Juans last August so I gotta disbelieve that graphic

[Jim]

I see the first ozone warning for the Valley counties of Maricopa and Pinal, for the next few days. Doesn't extend down to Pima County.

Can't say I miss that. I really don't miss living in a big city.

[SpiderLegs]

I see the first ozone warning for the Valley counties of Maricopa and Pinal, for the next few days.

When I finally broke down to see an allergist about my persistent breathing issues the one major item he was adamant about was making sure I don't exercise either inside or outside while Phoenix had a high ozone warning. Said ozone is particularly nasty to breath in and for anyone with lung issues can create long term damage. Even at the gym, I was told that the minute someone opens the door, ozone seeps inside.

Since moving to Pima County my breathing got better until I caught Valley Fever, I just can't win.

[andrewp]

@SpiderLegs

The ozone warning days in Phoenix were especially bad for me as well. I remember cleaning out our shed a couple of years ago on a high ozone day and had some major breathing issues that evening. Since moving back I’ve been amazed at how most of my respiratory issues are just gone. Some of that is a change in the allergen profile, but the lower ozone and small particulate matter has made a huge difference.

[chumley]

With widespread temperatures in the teens and 20s last night across much of the high country, it may have taken out any chance for apples at the few “wild” orchards this fall. Time will tell.

[big_load]

Meanwhile, today was NJ's first day of the year to surpass 90F in much the state.

[RedRoxx44]

I think it's NBC news headline ( NBC still exists??) that the southwest is in the worst drought in 1200 years. Welcome to the new 13 century meltdown ( the supposed great disappearance/ relocation of the ancient Puebloans (PC) or aka the Anasazi.

[chumley]

the worst drought in 1200 years

CNN reported that's also the last time Lake Mead was this low.

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
Right! Back when the Native Americans used to farm along the lake's shores!

[PrestonSands]

I’m ready to Hohokam-it out of the desert but my wife says no, lol.