Mindless chit chat

[Jim_H]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Raining a little bit, out here in Doney Park, NE of Flagstaff. Looks like the Peaks are getting wet as well. Had a lightning strike within half a mile.

It smells so nice! Petrichor!

[Nighthiker]

Night hike near Pine thought I heard thunder or my stomach rumbling. Rain dust on my jeep and at home this morning in Payson. Light and short duration rain with thunder happening now at 3 40 pm at my home.

[DixieFlyer]

@azbackpackr
I got wet in the Inner Basin today on my way back from Humphreys Peak...there wasn't a whole lot of rain, but it was a decent shower for about 15 minutes

[chumley]

It's beginning to look like a monsoonal surge of moisture will push into the eastern half of Arizona over the next few days, peaking on Saturday. Long range forecasts trend toward more rain than normal for the next month. Since the introduction of the standardized June 15 start date of the monsoon, this is the first year I can recall where those old dew point triggers might come close to aligning with the dumbed-down date trigger. Azbackpackr's NM friend says an early start means less overall, while cactuscat's weather farce guy predicts the state will look like Yellowstone a month from now. Is putting money on meteorology a better bet than crypto?

[RedRoxx44]

Meh, past Sat forecast for this upcoming Sat, Sun, Mon had 60/50/40 now Sat has a 40 percent chance and 20 for Sun and Mon in my neck of the woods. Looks better at Sierra Vista and toward Douglas.

[RedRoxx44]

Some crazy flooding in Capitol Reef, Utah yesterday. Videos of hikers watching their own vehicles float away.

[big_load]

Some crazy flooding in Capitol Reef, Utah yesterday. Videos of hikers watching their own vehicles float away.

Yeah, that place is extremely flood prone. The histories of the area tend to emphasize the pluck and tenacity of the settlers, which they should, but one big reason those characteristics were necessary is the frequency and severity of floods. Many had to be willing to start over from scratch every few years. I figure that limited growth almost as much as water limitation in drier times and availability of good soil. More people settled in some places that otherwise had fewer advantages.

[RedRoxx44]

My totally uninformed prediction is that azbackpackers friend is correct, and that we will have a less than awesome monsoon. Here's hoping I have to eat my words.

[azbackpackr]

@RedRoxx44
I hope you do have to eat your words. It's even hot in Flagstaff.

[chumley]

Statewide monsoon rainfall so far this year (by radar estimates) ... as a percent of average.

[chumley]

I changed all the colors to emphasize the areas that are below normal. All the whites and grays are 100% or above, showing that the areas below normal are not that large, but do cover both the Tucson and Phoenix metros.

[big_load]

Statewide monsoon rainfall so far this year (by radar estimates) ... as a percent of average.

Is the average recently adjusted like the temperature averages?

[chumley]

@big_load I'm not sure, but I believe that it is based on the most recent 30-year average, which adjusts every decade and was reset to 1991-2020 last year (some averages use the full recorded history, for PHX that's ca.1895 to present).

[azbackpackr]

It seems that the forecasted deluge has begun in Flagstaff. It's going to be interesting to see how it continues to play out with the flooding. I'm 5 houses away from a flood zone in Doney Park. I'm in my RV up off the ground. So if the water backs up over this way I'll probably be all right. But I looked at the map and I don't think we're in a flow zone. I suppose it could creep up this way. My landlord has put some sandbags around his doors.

[chumley]

The weather folks are very excited about the forecast. Will 80% of the state really see more than 3/4" of rain in the next 72 hours?

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
Gotta sell ads!
Actually, it already has been a bit wetter.

[chumley]

Will 80% of the state really see more than 3/4" of rain in the next 72 hours?

The answer was no. Officially, Sky Harbor is still at .21" for the month, and 1.08" for the calendar year, both well-below normal. My backyard has similar numbers. But there have definitely been a few areas that have seen really impressive rainfall totals this week.

I'm not sure I can remember such an extended period of cool and wet weather during the monsoon before. It's odd to have a continuing flow of moisture that can suddenly produce rain at any time of day or night rather than the more typical heat-of-the-day thunderstorms.

But, today looks to be the 4th in a row below 100, and the current forecast looks like we may hit 15 straight days with temps below normal (currently at 6). That's a welcome outcome for anytime in July and August here.

[PatrickL]

Sky water nice, me want more.

[PrestonSands]

@chumley Over 4 inches of rain at my house in Oro Valley since July 24th.

[SpiderLegs]

@chumley Over 4 inches of rain at my house in Oro Valley since July 24th.

It has been pretty wet up here. Though I think I live in the bubble, will see a huge cloud dumping along Oracle and then simply disappear as it heads to my neighborhood over by the library.