Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

Looking wetter. Still 7 to 10 days out it can get a lot drier. Who knows, maybe Arizona will be covered in blues, purples and reds in 5 or 6 days?

[chumley]

The weather models are wearing some sexy santa laced lingerie, and I'm thinking that I like how they look.
I hope Santa weathers the storm and brings HAZ a bundle of donations

[RedRoxx44]

Bah humbug; for my neck of the woods went from 4 days straight precip chances to one day although that day up to 75% at times.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
Models still look good for substantial rain Friday into Saturday. I'm less concerned that it wouldn't last for 4 days than I am we actually get substantial precipitation. If anything, I like that it might just last a few days so I can hike Christmas.

[Jim]

If this solidifies and ends up being close to the totals for this weekend, it will be a very nice storm.

[Jim]

Lots of rain coming down out there. Has anyone checked the death toll from this storm?
[ youtube video ]

[RedRoxx44]

Really nice so far, ponding and some washes with light flow. Went to the grocery store and thankfully avoided a fender bender out front ( pickup and van mix it up). I think I will head south tomorrow.

[Jim]

@RedRoxx44
Head south? I thought you live near Mexico?

Pretty good totals most places. Maybe not the ultra high amounts they were predicting for some locations, but lots of water all around. Plus a freak thunderstorm dumped up to 4 inches over the Signal Massif in the Kofa.

Perhaps some flooding in the canyon that leads to the County HP and some flooding in the Palm Canyon?

[chumley]

I’ll be the first to point out how wrong the NWS gets it sometimes (hey, look out the window! ) but I’ve been more impressed recently with how generally spot on their storm forecasts have turned out.

[chumley]

There are rumblings in the longer range models that there may be unsettled weather ahead. So far the potential doesn't look particularly dynamic, but hopefully a more robust moisture tap develops as we get closer.

[Alston_Neal]

Enjoying this much needed winter after 54 days of 110 degree plus days. Hope all the wildlife adapts.

[Jim]

Mild next week! However, still rather dry despite the recent parade of storms, which I have thought of as nuisance storms since they delivered little moisture. Others are starting to say what I have been saying and the winter is now likely to end up drier than normal. Nothing in the 7 day models, and the extended models say warmer and drier than normal. Who knows, maybe February will be a wet month? Probably not. At least dry winters tend towards wet summers, and who knows, maybe an earlier start to summer rains.

[Jim]

[ photoset ] That popped up in the home page yesterday. I think 2016 was the last El Nino, and even that one ended up being drier than either normal, or drier than the expectation. Probably drier than normal. However, by MLK weekend, the Catalinas had a pretty good snow total, unlike this year. I know you Phoenix members are deeply obsessed with Catalina Snowpack, and so you'll find this riveting.

[Jim]

Might be sort of decent rain and snow Sunday to Wednesday. Still 3 to 5 days out, so we'll see. That is the 7 day model, but it isn't too different for Arizona from the 5 day/120 hour model. Mostly, I used it to show the impressive totals the storms might leave along the gulf coast after they gain more moisture from the warm Gulf of Mexico.

Updated for most recent 168 model 1/19

[TooOld2Hike_EP]

@Jim_H
Am looking forward to it. (The rain.) From what I've seen so far, an inch plus in the Superior area.

Will dovetail perfectly into my planned backpacking trip starting the following Saturday. (I.e., I'm not going to worry (as much) about water.)

[chumley]

After a very disappointing (and poorly forecast by models) showing in yesterday’s wave of not-particularly-moist-ure, i have some hopes for tonight’s outcome.

It appears to be a less common trajectory favoring the valley over the Mogollon Rim, with an especially robust focus on the sky islands. I welcome whatever discharge the sky produces!

[chumley]

What a delightful week this has been. Looks like we'll get about a week of warm weather and some more fun headed this way after that.

[chumley]

This 80s crap in January sucks. And it seems that the first wave of my preferred winterstyle weather is trending toward less impactful than once hoped. Still half an inch of rain on Thursday night would be welcomed. Looking toward early-mid next week, the excitement builds again. And in even longer-range trends, it seems possible that more precipitation could happen later next week too.

Reliable surveys show that golf tournaments in Scottsdale correlate to cooler weather and rainfall nearly 65% of the time, so drought managers are planning to schedule additional golf tournaments. Which is truly following the science.

[Jim]

Wow! I think most of that is forecast next week from a slower moving storm, but that is a lot of moisture. Hopefully there is a lower snow level.

[Jim]

This next system running from roughly Tuesday to Thursday or Friday appears to be aimed far more at central and northern AZ, as well as Southern Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. And that is a good thing. Southern AZ still gets some, but we've had plenty recently.