Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

Apparently it was hot yesterday. But there's relief in the forecast with four straight days of below normal temperatures next week, which is a thing that just doesn't seem to ever happen here anymore. So that's a nice change of pace.

At the same time, the northern Rockies are set for an uncommon June snowstorm, with over 2 feet of snow in the forecast for parts of Glacier NP. Lesser amounts (but still accumulating snow!!) across much of western Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming.

And the CPC is predicting above normal precipitation probabilities in the Arizona forecasts for 6-10 days, 8-14 days, and 14-28 days. The probability for July is not above normal. What is normal is that none of this actually means anything. And yet, here I am posting about it.

[The_Dude]

@chumley
I spent the last two weeks in Finland with all the days in the 50s and 60s to come back Sunday to 113. This has been a rough week working outside, any relief will be a good thing.

[RedRoxx44]

Dark skies, some virga and now a dust alert on the phone. Looks impressive from the east coming in to the west. Monsoon start?? Hope so!

[chumley]

Monsoon starts when water comes out of my AC evap line.

I've observed some light discharge over the past two days.

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
But is it really the start of the so-called monsoon season? Or just the leftovers from that Mexican hurricane? Color me dubious. Then again, next week there's a small chance of afternoon showers. So we'll see. Doesn't look like the parade will get rained-out here on Friday. All of Main Street is already full of folding chairs. It'll be funny if they all get washed away this afternoon. People saving spots for themselves a week in advance. Small town thing. And there isn't even a marching band.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr I share some of your skepticism. The tropical moisture certainly seems to be a more dominant feature than the seasonal wind shift, though the two can certainly coexist. Forecasts have made it seem like even the valley would see rain this week, while in reality, the probabilities have never been over 30%. Better than nothing, I guess.

In totally off-topic and not-even=marginally-atmpospheric-related news, at noon today, we will cross the halfway point and be closer to the year 2050 than we are to 2000. It's all downhill from here.

[azbackpackr]

I hear it hit the mountains around Tucson pretty well.

[Alston_Neal]

@chumley
The Eagle has landed. Drip started 2 hours ago.
Cicadas aren't singing, so I've been told. They sing in my ears 24/7, so I can't hear them.
They need to sing down the rain.

[RedRoxx44]

Flash flood and tstorm warnings now. East looks like its getting hammered with large dark cell and full rain shaft.

[RedRoxx44]

Weather history--Tucson and area floods 1983
https://tucson.com/news/retrotucson/col ... 60.html#27


It might be behind a paywall now if you click on it too many times--

[chumley]

@RedRoxx44 Cool photos!

Flood of 1983

In October, 1983, Tropical Storm Octave, considered to be the worst tropical cyclone in the history of Arizona, dropped a foot of rain on the mountains of southern Arizona. Heavy rains caused many streams to burst their banks, including the San Francisco River. Over 700 homes were destroyed, and 86 of the town's 126 business were heavily damaged and most of Clifton's 4,200 residents had to be evacuated due to flooding. The Gila River near Clifton sustained its largest discharge rates since Clifton was founded. Along the Southern Francisco River, a peak discharge rate of 56,000 cu ft was reported by meteorologists, which is 1.8 times greater than the previous record.

The Jurassic Park gate in Clifton wasn't built until the 90s.

[FOTG]

Some fun weather out in the Blue Range today. Significant rain from Big Lake into Hannagan Meadows and beyond. There was enough graupel on the road to make me think about four wheel drive. lol The second pic. Is the P-Bar Lake Trailhead.

[outdoor_lover]

Catalinas got a really good couple of days of rain and hail first week of July. Didn't want to come back to Phoenix, it was almost cool, even at Catalina State Park. If the wildlife is any indication for the Phoenix area, the Sonoran Toads at my friend's place emerged about 4 days ago, so there is hope for the valley yet.

[00blackout]

@FOTG
Maybe P Bar Lake will now be a puddle with all of that. lol

[Nighthiker]

Good rain last night and overnight in Payson. Was planning a trip to Tucson but Arizona State Museum is closed and no answer at the Geological Survey. Was also hoping for a monsoon storm as well.

[chumley]

I think by most metrics, the North American Monsoon has been a disappointment so far across Arizona, Utah, and Colorado -- with parts of New Mexico receiving some better rainfall totals.

One observation I've had is that the few times that showers have occurred in the valley and surrounding areas, exactly zero of them have been the result of what I consider to be a typical monsoonal pattern. I've yet to observe a single time this year where afternoon storms built up along the Mogollon Rim and pushed down into the higher elevations north and east of the valley.

There haven't even been outflows coming up from the southeast that fire valley storms by interacting with outflows from rim storms.

Some of the storms that have developed in southeastern Arizona may have followed a more typical monsoonal trigger, but I'm less familiar with the previously "normal" conditions where those storms set up.

Regardless, it looks like there's a potential for greater precipitation coverage over the next week or so before the high pressure and extreme heat returns and shuts it all down again.

Only 4 more months of summer, so at least we have that to look forward to!

[outdoor_lover]

I think this is the beginning of the new normal. Between the Heat Island effect and Global Warming, I feel like any monsoon activity for the valley will eventually disappear altogether along with the Sonoran desert. I remember rain every single day during the Monsoon season while growing up here. Now we are.lucky to get rained on once a season.

My aunt has lived in the outskirts of Tonto Basin for 30 years, roughly 500 feet from the Tonto Creek channel. 3 years ago they had to redrill their shared well and go deeper. 2 months ago it went completely dry. I don't think any water from the Tonto even reached Roosevelt Lake this year. I guess it was a good year to build a bridge. Too bad the water's gone. People will start selling their places soon or will have to build a pipeline directly from the lake.

[xsproutx]

@outdoor_lover
I purchased a place in Geronimo Estates a few years back and the well the previous owners was around ~200 feet (they drilled that in 2002). It had dried up a couple of years before I purchased. Previous owners had always had a 500 gallon cistern that the well pumped into and then added another 3k gallons of storage and lived full time off of rain water collection for a few years. They must have taken few showers/way less than me...

I had a new well drilled and it had to go to 475 feet before we were comfortable with what it was producing (hit water at 375 feet) and, even then, it's only a half gallon a minute. We had the seller pay for that but I still get concerned that it may dry up as well.

[chumley]

I think the majority of gauges in the valley recorded at least some rainfall last night. It’s a 2025 miracle.

[The_Eagle]

1.27" at my house in NE Phoenix. There was still light rain, lightning and thunder at 3am. yea! Nothing the night before.