Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[RedRoxx44]

Saw somewhere Death Valley recorded most rainfall ever in November. Should be a awesome wildflower season in the southwest, hopefully.

[azbackpackr]

After mostly being missed by the fall rain, we got our first snow that stuck, up here in Eagar. We were supposed to get only 1/2 inch, but it looks more like 2 inches out there. Brr. I'm trying to enjoy it. I'm so used to spending my winters in the desert, summers in the mountains. Very spoiled. Had a great run of it for 12 years. I wore sandals yesterday, with socks, before it snowed. Now I will have to switch to shoes, alas!

[chumley]

So. How bout that heat!?

[Jim]

It's a hoax! Believe that. It wasn't 66 in Flagstaff on Thursday. Everything is better than before. bESt wINtAr Ever!

[Jim]

Seriously though, winter heat like 83 or what is forecast in my old neighborhood in December is not fun. 66 in Flag in December is nuts. It has been nearly or was 60 all week, too. At least there was rain this year, even if it was in November. These hot dry winters have terrible air quality, and you never get a reprieve from that heat. People I knew in Pima County hated them, but I liked the colder winters the last few years in Marana. I guess AZ Snowbowl can make snow, but that isn't really fun. A warm dry winter was forecast, so enjoy what comes if you manage not to have a repeat of last winter. Sierra Snowpack is at something like 21% of average to date, 4% of April 1 max, but it's still early. I'll check back in 3 months. https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... e=PLOT_SWC

Complaining about the temps is one thing, you should be paying attention to your reservoirs, what happens in the upper basin states, and your power bills. If the water levels drop under the intakes at Powell and Mead, as probably will happen in the next 12 to 15 months provided there isn't a sudden change in winter precipitation pattern, you'll be in for some fun. Data center complaint thread?

Per the net, Powell is 51 feet above the power generating intake levels. 3541 currently and 3490 for the intakes. https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ I bet there is a betting website for this subject. Navajo is 58% full, Blue Mesa at 49%, and Flaming Gorgeous at 79%. Snowpack is not terrible in the Upper. Colorado https://snowpack.water-data.com/upperco ... p?getall=1

[big_load]

Meanwhile in the hills NW NJ, we've had snow on the ground since 10 days after Halloween, with another six inches last night. It's been cold, too, so the local ski hill had a record early opening.

Fortunately, we missed a lot of it during our AZ road trip, although we still got nailed in Iowa's post-Thanksgiving storm along the way.

[Jim]

Could there be a Christmas miracle? The 7 day shows some potential.

[chumley]

In actual atmosphere comparisons, NOAA announced yesterday that they've officially introduced AI-driven weather models into their forecasting repertoire. There's a bunch of nerdy stuff in their press release for anybody interested. Let's hope the result is more accurate forecasts and farther in advance.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... her-models