Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[big_load]

NBC (Janice Huff) says that from Dec 1 through Feb 8, this has been the coldest winter in NYC in 30 years. That seems about right to me, although it's milder than typical Iowa winter. My biggest complaint is that I'm running out of places to put snow.

[AZLumberjack]

@big_load
I still say that the best day of my life was when I sold my snowblower and moved to Arizona.

[chumley]

The long-awaited pattern change seems to be slowly making having some effect here in the desert. Tomorrow looks pretty weak for the valley (no complaints for the higher elevations and south/east though!) and indicators of respectable amounts of both snow and rain across the rest of the state next week are trending into the "looks promising" category. If they're not dead already, low-elevation rain might trigger a nice wildflower bloom in a few weeks. If nothing else, a few days with cooler temps will be a welcome change.

[azbackpackr]

We got a little bit here in Round Valley. It drizzled off and on all morning. Better'n nothin'. Supposed to get a little more next week.

[azbackpackr]

It's a wee breezy here in Eagar this morning. So far, Springerville Airport is recording gusts up to 59, but forecast is for low 60s later on. Some of our neighbors have giant trees hanging over their homes. We're just watching out the windows. Sometimes there's a gust that makes a big roaring noise in the carport.

It's entertaining because I feel safe in this house. No big trees around.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr I feel like it's not terribly uncommon to have winds into the 60s in that part of the state? At least 3-4x/year?

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
We've been up to 74 miles an hour so far. No, it isn't too uncommon. I recall when I lived here before that it got up to about a hundred miles an hour one time. This time around, I moved here last April, so the very windy period was over with. I'm not sure if this wind storm is normal or different. Honestly, I can't remember it blowing this hard all night and all day. That doesn't mean it didn't. It just means I don't remember!

[chumley]

@azbackpackr It seems uncommon to be associated with a winter (snow) storm. I think later in the spring it happens more.

I was just reading the Flagstaff NWS social page where they asked the public for snowfall reports and the universal response was pretty much “no way to measure” due to extreme wind drifting whatever snowfall there is. Somewhere from bare ground to over a foot. Fun!

[azbackpackr]

I've been watching the Flagstaff railfan webcam today. (Main webcam is off.) Not a lot of snow, maybe more than two inches. The visible street and parking lot have a lot of black showing. At one point I saw people lugging suitcases through the snow. I'm guessing Amtrak was late (again).

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
Well and also in addition to my previous response, it looks like the Flagstaff giant snowstorm with 18 in is going to be almost a complete dud.

[chumley]

@azbackpackr Yes, the long-anticipated pattern shift was wildly hyped because it finally broke the record-breaking misery that has defined this season so far, but ultimately the results have been relatively disappointing for most areas east of the Sierra. A good stretch of the Mogollon Rim saw 8-10" yesterday and should see a few more inches overnight tonight before the furnace heats up again and things dry out. Seasonal temps and some snow has been a nice change this week, but it doesn't put too big of a dent in the snow deficit that we're facing so far.

The remote snow station in the Inner Basin actually reached the median depth for mid-February yesterday. It's an outlier. The other gauges in the state look a lot like this one on the Mogollon Rim.

[chumley]

Oh good. 90s in the forecast for PHX this week. Yay.

[xsproutx]

@chumley
On the bright side, I'm going to get decades of life out of my favourite hoodie with this weather?

[DixieFlyer]

below are links to a couple of graphics showing meteorogical winter temps (Dec, Jan, Feb). These are through Feb. 20, 2026, and given our late February weather this year if anything final numbers will be higher
[ image ]

[ image ]

[chumley]

[ image ]

Startling to be sure. But the scale of the graph as presented is incorrect and vastly underrepresents the increase this year. An accurate graph is attached.

[Jim]

@DixieFlyer
Interesting that all but 2 of those are in the last 12 years, and all of them are since 1980. How much of that is the result of urban heat island affects vs warming in the low desert? Is there a decrease in freeze or near freeze events, and what percentage of the warming trend is related to increased nighttime temperatures over increased daytime temperatures?

I would also be curious to know if dew points and humidity have increased over time. 2023- 2024 was cold to me in Marana, with a lot of snow at higher elevation.

It would be nice if similar data was available for remote desert locations out in places like near Woolsey, south near Newman Peak, or south of the Estrella Mountains. What would those locations show, if we had similar data locations?

The last 3 winters all being in the top 10 with #1 and #2 being the last 2 suggests a trend not simply explained by urban affects, since the city hasn't experienced a massive paving increase.

[chumley]

The final observations from winter have been tallied and reported by all three NWS offices in Arizona. Broadly speaking it was the warmest winter on record. Tucson put together a more comprehensive infographic, including that the airport did not record a single reading of 32 or below all winter for the first time since records have been kept.

To me, the most interesting data point is not that most stations in Arizona recorded the warmest winter temperatures on record, but that they absolutely obliterated their previous records.

[chumley]

I had seen this nationwide map illustrating the temperature anomalies this winter posted in a few places but didn't recognize the source and didn't want to share it without first looking into where it came from.

I include the link to the website home of the research project that produced the map. You may view additional anomaly maps there including high and low temperatures and mean dew points.

select "quarterly" for the time period to review the just-ended winter season.

https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php