Possible wintry weekend ahead (Apr 10-11, 2009)

[chumley]

Since the temps in the valley hit the low 90s this week, I post this because sometimes we forget that spring weather in Arizona can be quite volatile.

So if you're planning on a weekend outing, please keep an eye on the weather forecast, especially for tomorrow night and Saturday. I've not seen any predictions for total accumulations yet, but currently it seems that there will be accumulating snow above 6000 feet, with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet on Saturday. Yavapai County mountains, Mogollon Rim and White Mtns are favored for the most snow.

There should also be some chilly rain showers in the lower elevations too.

Without any official forecast yet, my guess is we're only looking at a 3-6 inch type of event here, but it is mid-April, so that can catch people unprepared and make for dangerous situations quite quickly.

[te_wa]

im going to W. Fork - yea!
cant wait to hike in rain and snow again. its been 2 months..
gonna be some quality hangin thats for sure.

[Jim]

I think it will just be another dud, at least up in Flagstaff. Every forecast for storms in the last 2 months has been just pathetic and/or wrong. The last real storm (non-wind) we have had was the February 9 storm. Since then, they say we will get something and then they decrease amounts and certainty with the storm's approach. Some storms have been little more than clouds and sun with nothing at all falling from the sky. Last May we did get snow, but not what they were talking about. After the event the NWS said they had over predicted because the models weren't used to the time of year. I wouldn't be surprised if the 3 to 6 inches becomes 3/10 to 6/10 of an inch of snow.

[te_wa]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 3 to 6 inches becomes 3/10 to 6/10 of an inch of snow.

nothing wrong with skepticism, after all, weather predictions are just that.. and crystal balls aren't real.
not of concern tho to those prepared. i mean, if you carry a windshirt and umbrella in your car/purse you are basically prepared for anything "out of the ordinary". its not like we have blizzards and statewide floods here. man, can you feel the sensationalism? dont forget to buy new Tide with Bleach!

[chumley]

I think it will just be another dud, at least up in Flagstaff.

Your skepticism is well-founded. I agree that quite often forecasters in this state get a little bit too excited and suffer from what I call "premature precipitation"
The Tucson office has just updated their report saying areas in the south and southeast above 6k can expect up to 7" with more possible on higher mountain peaks. Looks like they may be issuing a Snow Advisory later as well.
Afternoon package from the Phoenix office says deserts can expect .1 to .5 inches of rain, with up to 1 inch possible in the hills of Gila County. I'd be shocked to see .5 of rain in the valley, but there's a chance for T-storms, so one good burst could do it I guess.
Flagstaff office is calling for 1-3 in Flag, 2-4 around town, and up to 4-8 along the rim ... and that's just for Friday night. Saturday totals are not in the forecast yet.
They do say that this storm has much more moisture available to it than many of the previous storms, so here's to hoping they get it right this time!

[azbackpackr]

We had about an inch of snow over night yesterday, so that early yesterday (Thursday) morning I had to drive the school bus on both black and white ice on US 60 to Vernon. Then it warmed up considerably during the day. I see that there is still a forecast for more here, but I will believe it when I see it.

[PaleoRob]

I will believe it when I see it.

I find myself saying that a lot up here in Page, both about the weather and about businesses supposedly coming to town (Target, Home Depot, a multiplex theater, etc.).

[writelots]

mmmaaaannnn! I'm supposed to hike up to Manning Camp Saturday. A 7" accumulation could be a HUGE pain in the pumpkin. I don't actually like the snow very much when I'm hiking and camping in it. What can I say - I live in Tucson for a very good reason.

[dysfunction]

yea, I was thinking about being up around Manning last night when I was thinking about how wet we could get on Bellota Saturday

[te_wa]

What can I say - I live in Tucson for a very good reason.

your mother-in-law lives in Phoenix?

[writelots]

your mother-in-law lives in Phoenix?

actually...my mother lives in Phoenix

[dysfunction]

That wasn't far enough for me.. same state ya know

[chumley]

They just issued the Winter Weather Advisory (and I'll still believe it only when I see it!):

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY.

A SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
LATER TODAY...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BECOMING
STEADIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 5000 FEET
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET.
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
THIS STORM.

Some of the point forecasts show 6-12 inches in higher elevations. That would be really nice ...

[Jim]

[quote="chumley"]They just issued the Winter Weather Advisory (and I'll still believe it only when I see it!):

ditto

[azbackpackr]

Nothing here yet, just clouds and a stiff breeze. Hiked in the woods, didn't need a jacket.

[azbackpackr]

It rained overnight. It started snowing about a half hour ago. Here in Eagar, at 7,000, it may be too warm to stick for very long. I am hoping this is actually a very wet storm! Maybe I will get to go xc sking after all!

[fotogirl53]

There is 2" of snow at my house in the south part of Flagstaff, temp at 30 degrees with light snow coming down. The snow is expected to stay until tomorrow. This weather is not abnormal for Flagstaff in April. plz:

[Jeffshadows]

Lemmon got a blanket of snow down here...looks like Mica did, too.

[azdesertfather]

Since the temps in the valley hit the low 90s this week, I post this because sometimes we forget that spring weather in Arizona can be quite volatile.

So if you're planning on a weekend outing, please keep an eye on the weather forecast, especially for tomorrow night and Saturday. I've not seen any predictions for total accumulations yet, but currently it seems that there will be accumulating snow above 6000 feet, with snow levels dropping below 5000 feet on Saturday. Yavapai County mountains, Mogollon Rim and White Mtns are favored for the most snow.

There should also be some chilly rain showers in the lower elevations too.

Without any official forecast yet, my guess is we're only looking at a 3-6 inch type of event here, but it is mid-April, so that can catch people unprepared and make for dangerous situations quite quickly.

Too bad the boy scout troop didn't see this..word is there is a troop lost in the Apache Lake area with seven children and two adults; one troop member may have hypothermia.

[chumley]

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS OF 9
AM MST INCLUDE:

PARKS................ 4 TO 6 INCHES.
BELLEMONT................. 4 INCHES.
KACHINA VILLAGE........... 4 INCHES.
PINETOP................... 4 INCHES.
MCNARY.................... 3 INCHES.
FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT......... 2 INCHES.
MUNDS PARK................ 1 INCH.
SHOW LOW.................. 1 INCH.
TONTO VILLAGE............. 1 INCH.
CONCHO.................... 1 INCH.