What kind of winter do you think we'll have?

Vaporman · Post by **Vaporman** » Sep 15 2009 7:27 am

So last winter was rather mild and the one before that was wetter than usual and the year before that it was colder than usual. So anyone have a crystal ball or a farmers' almanac and can make an educated guess as to what this upcoming winter will be like?

dysfunction · Post by **dysfunction** » Sep 15 2009 7:36 am

I'd rather a wet one, but given my normal luck I'm thinkin' we'll have another dry one. At least that way if it is wet I'm pleasantly surprised

BobP · Post by **BobP** » Sep 15 2009 7:43 am

I bought a new pair of snowshoes(closeout 2007 model) this March. So I'm shaking my snowglobe everynight wishing for a Snowy winter

.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Sep 15 2009 7:47 am

As has been discussed in the "monsoon is coming" thread, there's strengthening El Nino conditions in the Pacific, expected to continue into the winter. An El Nino does NOT mean it will be a wetter than normal winter, however it does mean that the chances for a wetter than normal winter are higher than normal.

But then again, you have to factor in Gorebal warming. Which of course changes everything!

So to answer your question, no, nobody has a crystal ball, and educated guesses are still guesses ... and they can just as easily be wrong as right.

writelots · Post by **writelots** » Sep 15 2009 7:56 am

Trying to guess the weather in AZ is like trying solve a problem like Maria... Mmm, lemmie see. It'll be cool, with a couple of cold nights, enough rain so that half the folks say it's a wet winter and the other half say they've never seen one so dry. It will likely drop below freezing one night when it's not supposed to and kill at least half of my cold-sensitive plants. I'll underestimate how cold it's going to be on nearly every hike, because it's hard to stand in my living room, sweating with the ceiling fan on and still think it's reasonable to pack the down jacket.

And, I predict I will hear at least four people say how they really miss having real seasons. I'll promise to only smack three of them.

BobP · Post by **BobP** » Sep 15 2009 8:18 am

writelots wrote:Trying to guess the weather in AZ is like trying solve a problem like Maria

Or "this is a Indian"

chumley wrote:Gorebal warming

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Sep 15 2009 8:39 am

Hmmm... Well, I didn't get to cross country ski last year, because I wasn't here, I was in Yuma. So this year I will be here, so most likely I'll get to ski. I'm going to miss Yuma, though. I already miss it. The kayaking there is just awesome.

dysfunction · Post by **dysfunction** » Sep 15 2009 9:10 am

writelots wrote: And, I predict I will hear at least four people say how they really miss having real seasons. I'll promise to only smack three of them.

you can smack me, being a north woods kid at heart I ALWAYS miss having real seasons (even -30, believe it or not ;) )

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Sep 15 2009 11:51 am

ElNinoBriefing_12Sep2009.pdf: (319.2 KiB) Downloaded 218 times

The latest El Nino computer models show the Pacific sea-surface-temperatures rising through February, before beginning to cool again. The month-by-month modeling indicates that northern and north-eastern Arizona should have a winter that is statistically near-normal, while the southern half of the state has a better-than-average chance for higher-than-normal precipitation.

SuperstitionGuy · Post by **SuperstitionGuy** » Sep 15 2009 1:24 pm

Ask me in January.

but of course I live in Utah!

writelots · Post by **writelots** » Sep 15 2009 3:34 pm

dysfunction wrote:you can smack me, being a north woods kid at heart I ALWAYS miss having real seasons (even -30, believe it or not ;) )

Our seasons ARE real seasons - you just have to understand the desert to see them. I am VERY willing to allow you to miss a familiar weather pattern for which you have a particular fondness, but I simply cannot permit you to disparage mine. I find it MOST comforting to watch the desert transition from "Hot" season to "Less Hot" season - and many plants, animals and social behaviors are in place to signal the change! Late summer annuals finish blooming and die off, mesquites begin to make an unholy mess, nights get cool and crisp, mornings begin to smell like creosote and the roads get jammed with Minnesota license plates (not to mention the bars near the U get jammed with girls with bling on their glasses and guys in flip flops!)

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Sep 15 2009 3:39 pm

writelots wrote:not to mention the bars near the U get jammed with girls with bling on their glasses

Ahhh yes. Hunting season!

JoelHazelton · Post by **JoelHazelton** » Sep 15 2009 3:48 pm

writelots wrote:the bars near the U get jammed with girls with bling on their glasses and guys in flip flops!)

You mean those stupid, stupid, stupid glasses that look like martian eyes, and guys with frosted tips, flip-flops, plaid shorts and polo shirts that are a size too small? :yuck:

JimmyLyding · Post by **JimmyLyding** » Sep 15 2009 4:10 pm

With respect those stupid glasses....I have season tickets for Arizona Wildcats football, and we go to a pretty kick-pumpkin tailgate on the mall. There are probably 10K people out there. Lots of undergrads. Lots of ogling. 2 years ago in late-October I was drinking on the Mall before the game, and asked my buddy why all of these co-eds were dressed up as Paris Hilton for Halloween. He looked at me like I had just stepped out of a spaceship, "Dude, that's how they all look now. Halloween isn't for another week!" I soooo regret asking that question. The shirts and shorts have gotten much smaller since my day, but the sunglasses have gotten much bigger. I can live with that.

Ckzona · Post by **Ckzona** » Sep 15 2009 4:58 pm

I Just hope this winter that a couple times during january and february when I go down to tucson I can go Mount Lemmon and ski a couple times. Same with Az snowbowl and Sunrise. Hope they get above average snow

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Sep 15 2009 6:55 pm

I'd like above average snow to open the Peaks for winter by mid December, and then normal to near normal for the rest of the winter. I want only a few storms per month, but I want them to dump snow on us. I also want it to be milder than normal in winter, so even though we get a lot of snow, it melts below 8000' to 8500' and we have warm sunny days, those are great. It would be nice if we didn't have any, or not very many nights below zero. I want days that are perfect for hiking Humphrey and climbing in Sedona. Lastly, I want it to be over by April 1, and I want a nice spring with little wind, but that is asking a lot.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Sep 16 2009 5:35 am

jhodlof wrote: I want a nice spring with little wind, but that is asking a lot.

We don't bother wishing for that in my neck of the woods! It IS asking a lot!

Strand · Post by **Strand** » Sep 22 2009 9:04 pm

A little spring wind in Springerville (or Lakeside) is a relative term...if it blows less than 35 mph for a 24 hr average, it's just a light breeze and doesn't count. ;)

I hope for a very snowy winter here in the 4 corners. Last year's ski season wasn't too bad, but now with Taos, Wolf Creek, Telluride, and Purgatory within range, I'm itching for some real high mountain powder on steeps.

JoelHazelton · Post by **JoelHazelton** » Sep 22 2009 11:04 pm

As long as we're giving mother nature our Christmas Lists... I want tons of rain in early december so all the creeks in the Superstitions are running strong, along with a healthy flow at Massacre Falls (not that pathetic little stream we got this past winter). That way I can spend my Christmas Break scampering around the Superstitions enjoying the water... But no rain over Break, just ominous skies every morning and evening that look like rain. A couple nice, cold storms in January/February that give the Superstitions some snow would also be appreciated. Only on weekends though, for pete's sake. Doing it during the week while I'm working doesn't do me any good.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Sep 23 2009 3:30 am

Fall has arrived in the White Mtns. After a VERY wet September, everything turned green and we had a late blooming of wildflowers everywhere. My lawn is still very lush. But the past two nights have been below freezing, and last night was supposed to be colder than the night before, so I covered my tomatoes, cukes and zukes, hoping to save them a little longer as there are still young fruits coming along on those plants.

Escudilla's north slope, which can be seen from Springerville, is all golden now with the aspen leaves.

I have been working all the time, mostly 7 days a week, and have been sick for 10 days (and working, too) so I haven't been up the mtn. except to one of my jobs. Hope to go this coming weekend.