Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[BobP]

I took an alternate route down....

[azbackpackr]

So, I heard it was snowing in Flag yesterday but we never got any over here yet. The forecast for today (Sunday) says we are supposed to get about 6 inches or more here in Eagar over the next several days, but that the temperature is going to be above freezing, so that means it will not be very significant. However, the same is not true of Pole Knoll or anywhere else up higher, where it is likely to improve the icy skiing conditions.

[PaleoRob]

It was snowing in Flag yesterday on the way home, and when I woke up this morning there was a dusting of snow on the ground here in Page!

[Jim]

The NWS is calling for 12 to 24 inches of snow above 7000' from now until Monday night. I guess it could happen, but we'll see. It would be nice if we got it so that February didn't turn out to be a dud month. Hopefully we get a few good juicy storms in March.

[azbackpackr]

Ok, they have totally altered our forecast for Eagar since the last time I looked at it! Here, also we are told we are to get 5 to 9 inches tonight, 5 to 9 more tomorrow, and a few more by Tues. For Greer, 1500 feet higher, they are calling for just under a foot tonight, another foot tomorrow, etc.

Well, well. We shall see how the cookie crumbles. Right now, only 3 inches added to Pole Knoll would make it very nice again, so I think I will be happy with it. Why does this have to be the week I have 3 papers due by Friday? I expect that tomorrow morning for my job driving the school bus, that we will have a two hour delayed start, but probably not a full snow day.

[chumley]

The NWS is calling for 12 to 24 inches of snow above 7000' from now until Monday night. I guess it could happen, but we'll see. It would be nice if we got it so that February didn't turn out to be a dud month. Hopefully we get a few good juicy storms in March.

I think it'll happen. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 feet on the peaks. NWS models have been behind on this forecast all week. It just seems to get stronger with every run. Perhaps because the storm is dropping straight out of Utah, instead of drawing in off the Pacific. Not sure, but it's been surprisingly rainy here in the valley too. I'm enjoying it big time ... heading to the golf course now!

[Jim]

I'm thinking more of town and surrounding plateau watersheds, rather than the Peaks and Snowbowl. Though, anything more for the Peaks is always good news. It has been pretty dry since the last big storm in January. Come to think of it, with the exception of the really big storm of January 20 to 22, it hasn't been very good this winter. In my opinion, one big storm does not make for a good el nino winter with above average precipitation, and all we really had outside of that were a few decent smaller storms, and then the first large storm in mid December that failed to open Snowbowl. This next storm is good news, but I am hoping to get a couple of really large wet storms that dump heavy wet snow all over the area, preferably one in early March and another in the last week of the month.

I drove down to upper Lake Mary yesterday. Lower Lake Mary is still dry and Upper is about 10 feet below the spillway. Granted, there is a lot of melting to occur, but it still isn't very good to see one of Flagstaff's main water supplies on the low side. The Forest Service still has a photo up on their website from 5 years ago, during the last real el nino in February of 2005 which shows Upper Lake Mary full and over flowing into a full or nearly full Lower Lake Mary. That winter was much wetter than this one, and while I would have to look at records, I believe it did not come on the heals of an exceptionally dry monsoon and calendar year, so there was more soil moisture which lead to increased surface runoff. The wettest I ever saw those two lakes was in early April of 2008 when Upper Lake Mary was full and had about 6 inches of water moving over it's spillway into Lower Lake Mary, but Lower Lake was still just a marsh. I don't think this winter can come close to 2005, but I think we can still try for a 2008.

[DarthStiller]

Four Peaks got a good bit of snow from the recent rain. The clouds finally cleared about 4pm yesterday. Brown's Peak looks almost solid white.

[azdesertfather]

It was just cool to see the Pinals lit up with snow today! Really cool, could even see it on the freeway while in Phoenix today ... Off in the distance

[writelots]

Heading up to Pinetop this weekend for cabin living and snowshoeing. After my cold misery last weekend, I'm a little less enthusiastic about wet, cold conditions than I was before. However, I'm looking forward to sitting inside, looking out at the cold snowiness, and sipping more hot coco laced with Irish whiskey...

How are the conditions looking up there?

[Jim]

Welp, the storm that is forecast for the weekend up here is looking to be a dud. They were hinting at a significant precipitation event earlier in the week, but now the liberal estimates for the storm are up to 6 inches in Flagstaff. I consider it a dud and mostly a nuisance. We need real snow: heavy wet snow, 2 feet+! Maybe March will deliver?

I guess it can freshen the powder at Snowbowl. The skiing is still great if that picks your fancy.

[big_load]

We've got plenty of snow here. It snowed every day this week, and today's total will probably hit 18". I'll be skiing on Saturday, but it's going to be warm and sloppy. I hate gooey wax!

[chumley]

Snowpack across the state still sits at over 200% of normal ... which is great news. But it will melt quickly in the spring, and March (and hopefully April) storms are key. I hope to see 2 or 3 good ones.

[Jim]

So, we're now looking to March for snow. Anyone thing that we will get the first big March snow since 2006? I'm hoping we get at least 1 big storm that produces >24 inches of sierra cement here in Flagstaff, more on the Peaks.

[big_load]

We're up over 2 feet in this storm, with more to come. Over 3 feet for the week. I'm tired of shoveling.

[Grasshopper]

In response to big_load:
What are you doing still up at 1:30am Eastern Time... still shoveling snow?

[big_load]

Almost. I just checked and found another inch. Last night I shoveled from 1:30-3:30 am after shoveling from 7:30-9:00. Mrs. big_load went out to shovel at 7:30 am. She also shoveled a couple times yesterday.

[azbackpackr]

Poo on shoveling. I just let it pile up!

[PaleoRob]

No more snow between now and mid-March would be nice, so we don't end up fighting nasty conditions in Grand Gulch.

[Jim]

No more snow between now and mid-March would be nice, so we don't end up fighting nasty conditions in Grand Gulch.

While I want big snow, I don't want any between the 12th and the 21st. In fact, I want high pressure that entire period. That's been the problem with this winter as I see it. We haven't had lots of sun, and it's been overcast a lot. While we are getting a good number of storms they seem to be duds like this one coming in. The NWS further reduced the amounts down to 2 to 4 inches, let's see if we even get that. These nuisance storms are not even worth having. If we aren't going to get real accumulation I would rather have nothing at all, like last winter when it was sunny all the time. Bring back the sun so I can do stuff outside.