Is the oil leak UNSTOPPABLE? from Mother Jones

[azbackpackr]

From Mother Jones magazine, online:

Is the BP Gusher Unstoppable?
Read the forum of geologists and oil professionals that has the science community buzzing.
By Julia Whitty | Wed Jun. 16, 2010 2:26 PM PDT


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Sharon Astyk at ScienceBlogs points the way [1] to a seriously scary comment thread at The Oil Drum [2], a sounding board for, among others, many petroleum geologists and oil professionals. The comment in question is from a seemingly very knowledgable "dougr." Some of it follows verbatim below. I've highlighted the parts that frightened me the most and left me wondering: Is this why Obama's praying?

You can read the comment in its entirety here [2], complete with useful links, as well as all the comments (some of which dissent from dougr's claims) made in response. Sharon notes, to the inevitable question of why pass along an anonymous comment: "This one passes my smell test, which is usually pretty good - that doesn't mean I claim commenter Doug R is right - it means I think his information is interesting enough to be worth exposing to a wider audience for clarification or correction." As the Oil Drum staff explains to its own readers regarding this post: "Were the US government and BP more forthcoming with information and details, the situation would not be giving rise to so much speculation about what is actually going on in the Gulf. This should be run more like Mission Control at NASA than an exclusive country club function--it is a public matter--transparency, now!" Amen. Meanwhile, judge for yourself:

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill [2]] was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.

"What does this mean?

"It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad, same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.

"Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

"A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons. There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

"This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

"The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself... The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over...

"What is likely to happen now?

"Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

"All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

"It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

"We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

"Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well."

Source: http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010 ... nstoppable

[Jeffshadows]

Be careful calling things junk science. That language is offensive, inflammatory, and flat-out incorrect. No science is 100% accurate...ever. That's just not how the natural world works.

Not even Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle??? Now I know that Newton was wrong cause some days I just can feel some extra gravity. I never trip, but I have hit a few gravity surges.

No, no - you just tripped over Schrödinger's cat

[azbackpackr]

some days I just can feel some extra gravity. I never trip, but I have hit a few gravity surges.

Wow man..dude, I want some of that stuff... ;)

[Al_HikesAZ]

No, no - you just tripped over Schrödinger's cat

Hope I didn't kill it. HeHe - Physics Jokes - you can never have too many of those. Nothing like sitting around a campfire swapping Math Algorithms.

[PLC92084]

yeah... with Subjective humor, everything is Relative...

[Jeffshadows]

No, no - you just tripped over Schrödinger's cat

Hope I didn't kill it. HeHe - Physics Jokes - you can never have too many of those. Nothing like sitting around a campfire swapping Math Algorithms.

WANTED - For quantum indeterminacy!

[Al_HikesAZ]

WANTED - For quantum indeterminacy!

Not Really - when I observe a thread you can predict that it will careen wildly off topic So how do we get this back on topci?

Wow man..dude, I want some of that stuff... ;)

If I could bottle it, ATF would arrest me.

"My thoughts aren't random, you just can't think as fast as me." Author Unknown.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

Probably should blame that government agency Mineral Management Services (MMS) while were passing it around. They oversea all of the oil production and drilling in the Gulf of Mexico by leasing out 3x3 blocks to operators. They are in charge of making sure the operators are following the regulations to insure the safety of Platforms, Rigs, Jack-ups etc. They also are in charge of collecting the massive amounts of royalties from the operators who lease these blocks for our government. There lies the conundrum. Shut down or slow down operators production less royalties to our government.

So who really is at the top of the food chain? :whistle:

They have now separated the royalty collecting and regulation enforcing entities because there is an obvious conflict of interest, but you have not heard anything about MMS since the first days of the disaster. Just food for thought.

[JimmyLyding]

Anyone who's interested in reading some very adults-only stuff should do an internet search for "Mineral Management Services scandal." Very telling.
This catastrophe has been decades-in-the-making. I won't get into that because I'm just not interested in getting into a political free-for-all (sorry for all of the hyphens) like the thread I started about asking my fellow HAZ users if they were planning on carrying their birth certificates when they are out-and-about.
Some say that this is Obama's "Katrina." I disagree. Katrina was like a 1000-lb. bomb that was inadvertently dropped on someone's house. This disaster is akin to a forest fire that slowly burns through a city, and can't be stopped because that city is constructed of wood and paper. I'm 35-years-old, and I'm sure that the effects of this catastrophe will still be evident in negative ways when I'm on my deathbed.
BP may cease to exist as a viable entity within a year. The seafood industry in the Gulf of Mexico may not be viable for 50 years or more. Tourism in that region may not recover for a similar period of time. Domestic offshore oil production may be reduced to the point where it is not economically viable due to regulations. Forget about drilling in the ANWR unless Sarah Palin gets elected President . Time for our political- and business leaders to get their pumpkins in a group, and start figuring out ways to make all Americans' lives better rather than arguing about guns, abortion, political pissssing matches, and being beholden to special interests.
There goes my claim about not wanting to get political [-X

[PaleoRob]

BP may cease to exist as a viable entity within a year.

I doubt that will be true.

[JimmyLyding]

BP may cease to exist as a viable entity within a year.

I doubt that will be true.

I hope you're right because guess who will be left holding even more of the proverbial bag if it disintegrates. BP stock is getting killed, and I doubt that it's going to get better any time soon. My biggest worry is that BP will spin-off its profitable operations in order to sequester its exposure to this disaster.

[Jeffshadows]

BP may cease to exist as a viable entity within a year.

I doubt that will be true.

I hope you're right because guess who will be left holding even more of the proverbial bag if it disintegrates. BP stock is getting killed, and I doubt that it's going to get better any time soon. My biggest worry is that BP will spin-off its profitable operations in order to sequester its exposure to this disaster.

That IS the corporate way, after all. I just love how Detroit is still running ads glorifying the gas-guzzling trucks they build without a hit of irony at all.

[PLC92084]

I wonder... Is BP "too big to fail"? Maybe they'll qualify for some of the bail-out money our Government is handing out like candy...

[dysfunction]

@PLC92084
Let the Brits bail them out, it's their company, not ours.

[Jeffshadows]

@PLC92084
Let the Brits bail them out, it's their company, not ours.

Agreed. FWIW, the "Too big to fail" hypothesis was postulated by the previous administration's financial guys, not the current one's. Either way, if one truly becomes informed, the conclusion is obvious: It's disgusting and contemptible, but they are right.

[chumley]

It's Stopped!!!


But apparently the question remains as to whether or not it will hold, as outlined by the OP.

[azbackpackr]

So, if it doesn't hold, that would have something to do with unstable sea floor, correct? I have been out of the loop lately on that issue.

[chumley]

Yes. The increased pressure from the cap could cause it to leak elsewhere.

[sneakySASQUATCH]

The main concern is that if it leaks elsewhere particularly below the sea floor it will erode the mud around the well rapidly or cause multiple leaks both of which would be harder to contain. It is still even if successful, temporary until they can reach it drilling in from the side.
Still a lot of activity at the source. I passed within 10-12 miles several times flying out to deeper water rigs. I saw more oil 60-90 miles west southwest than in the area of the spill site.