More snow coming despite La Nina conditions

[VVebb]

Most people seem aware that there is rain/snow in the forecast for much of the state this weekend (Feb 19-21) -- at least the northern and eastern parts -- but I just noticed that the latter half of the 10-day forecast is showing another storm coming through a few days later. Specifically, http://www.weather.com is showing 70-100% chance of snow in Flagstaff this Sat-Sun, and 30-60% chance of snow next Weds-Sun (Feb 23-27). Should make for good scenery now, and good, wet hikes this spring!

[Jim]

La Nina doesn't mean no storms, no snow, or no rain, it just means that we are less likely to have them, or that the frequency of them can be low. Long periods of sun and warm conditions are common, and they can be punctuated by intense storms like we should normally get at a higher frequency. This next storm is looking alright, but for the hype the Arizona totals are not looking super impressive. 8 to 14 inches on the Mogollon Rim isn't really all that much, and the Snowbowl/ Peaks totals probably won't be much better. Not so for California, but that's the effect of a rain shadow and we have a monsoon season so it isn't all bad. Besides, if last June taught us anything, it is that even after a wet winter, a dry windy spring can erase the moisture and create dry conditions which are bad for fire and vegetation growth. I digress, the storm is good, but it won't be the incredible storm that would be nice. In the past, they have gotten a little too excited with a second storm following a "large" one, so next week's might be a dud.

[JoelHazelton]

I'm also excited about the storms

[Jim]

I, uh, er, uh, would also like to voice my, er, uh, support for and, uh, er, excitement over, uh, the, uh, coming storm.


Seriously though, it would be nice to snowshoe Humphrey once more this winter with "good" snow conditions. It's been bad up there for a month now, so a foot of snow will be welcome.

[chumley]

I think this thread should be locked and redirected into the official JimH weather thread.