Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[Jim]

Alright, it's after 5 on Memorial Day weekend, and we're heading into that time of year when most are eagerly anticipating the coming of the seasonal wind shift which brings with it higher dew points and increased chances of thunderstorms: The Monsoon.

So, the 2011 Monsoon season, when will it start? I think it will begin a little early this years, possibly sometime in the last week of June, maybe the 27th. Look at this graphic. While not easy to get an idea of the cause, some storm activity seems to be indicated in west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Is this a monsoon season precursor? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Been super nice up here the last few days. Pretty warm, or "hot" for Flagstaff as someone complained to me the other day. Mid 70s, so still a bit cool. Just really windy. Really, really, windy.

[johnlp]

..."we're heading into that time of year when most are eagerly anticipating the coming of the seasonal wind shift which brings with it higher dew points and increased chances of thunderstorms: The Monsoon." I doubt you'll find many living in the valley that eagerly anticipate summer or the monsoon. Not me at least. Flag temps are much nicer for hiking or other outdoor activities, May-Sept anyway. I guess if you live where it is warm, you like it cool. Or if you live where it is cool you seek warmer temps. I'm sure the wind up there gets old real quick though.

[PatrickL]

Not ready yet. Give me until, oh, I don't know, September?

[azbackpackr]

I love monsoon season too. Loved it when I lived in Tucson, too.

It sure is windy this weekend. We went kayaking but had to confine ourselves to the sheltered cove by the store at Big Lake. The rest of the lake, and also Crescent Lake and Lee Valley Reservoir, all were covered in whitecaps.

[Jim]

..."we're heading into that time of year when most are eagerly anticipating the coming of the seasonal wind shift which brings with it higher dew points and increased chances of thunderstorms: The Monsoon." I doubt you'll find many living in the valley that eagerly anticipate summer or the monsoon. Not me at least. Flag temps are much nicer for hiking or other outdoor activities, May-Sept anyway. I guess if you live where it is warm, you like it cool. Or if you live where it is cool you seek warmer temps. I'm sure the wind up there gets old real quick though.

Now that is ironic, because I took my theory from many on HAZ who seem to like the monsoon. For me, in Flagstaff, other than the green up and improved health of the vegetation which so sorely needs the moisture by the time the rains come, I find the monsoon to be something I want to leave. I prefer the warm, dry break days during the season. I have had the last half of the 2006 monsoon and all the following summers here. The most pleasant summer was 2009, when we had a monsoon failure. We still had some storms, but they were not our typical monsoon storms. In 2009, we had big clouds, brief heavy rain, and lots of loud, close lightning. Except for the earliest of the monsoon storms, in a normal year once the moisture arrives, we get lame rain events with little lightning and the clouds just seem to be dark and dull. We get rain, but it can last a long time. Sure, it's good for the forest and plants, but I don't want to live in it. When we get those events, we'll have temps in the 50s or 60s. I understnad Tucson people like the monsoon, and get exciting storms, as the Valley can, too. If you don't want it, you don't want it. For SE AZ, though, at this point almost any rain would be good.


In Flag, while the current low 70 temps are pleasant, the 40+ MPH winds are getting really old. I like heat when dry, so if it were 93, I might like the winds.

I feel a hot wind on my shoulder
And the touch of a world that is older...Mexican Radio

[Jim]

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FREE AIR WINDS AS HIGH AS
50KTS (58 MPH) WILL LOWER TO AROUND 8500 MSL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS EVEN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ARE IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY...STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS SPRING.

BY MID WEEK...SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND NRN MEXICO. A STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS. AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL PUSH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN
AZ BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND DRY
LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...DRY...WITH
DAILY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

Really high winds for NAZ, and then early lightning storms for the SE parts.

[johnlp]

Monsoon season means the heat and humidity of summer are here in the valley. Late June through September wears you out. Give me October through May weather. I don't mind the rain at all. The desert can always use rain. When summer rain comes and temps drop because of it, that feels refreshing. The storms can be exciting too. But, I prefer low humidity and moderate temps. Breezes up to 10 mph are fine. 40+ forget it.

[Jim]

It's 59 degrees outside and the winds are howling. Gust to 60 mph are forecast, and already the clapboards on my 5 year old building are rattling. A cold, windy end of May weekend.

[kevinweitzel75]

88 degrees and slighly windy here in Mesa. This year has been a stange one, weather wise, that's for sure. Wonder if the earthquake in Japan had anything to do with it.

[chumley]

88 degrees and slighly windy here in Mesa. This year has been a stange one, weather wise, that's for sure. Wonder if the earthquake in Japan had anything to do with it.

I wonder what would make you think that an earthquake would affect weather patterns across the planet?

[kevinweitzel75]

Such a large earthquake would have something to do with the earths axis? They say the one in Chile knocked the Earths axis off by 3 inches.

[kevinweitzel75]

Or maybe it's aliens.

[chumley]

I've never read anything about earthquakes affecting weather or climate. I believe that there's a fairly constant frequency of earthquakes (scientifically speaking), including "super quakes", each year. As the population grows, these quakes tend to affect more people, but I don't believe they are affecting the planet any more than they have ever done (or not done) before.

Now if there had been a huge volcanic eruption ... then there would definitely be scientific evidence to support climatic changes.

[Jim]

I thought he was joking. Either way, things happen. This is hardly new for Flagstaff. In fact, despite what the NWS has said about this and the last few storms as being, "unseasonably cold and strong late seasons storms", this is far more the norm, given my experience, than an aberration from the norm. Every spring here has been really windy, with 2008, 2009, and this year have had cold rains and snow in May. 2007 didn't and was pleasantly warm, but also a severe drought. 2010 had a windy, but dry spring. Nothing new. It's just part of my "move to lower elevation" justification.

Looks like it was just a peaceful day in Flagstaff, only 64 mph for our top gust.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... GZ&pil=PNS

[Sredfield]

"It's all them danged satellites Martha!"
That may be a bit too obscure a reference, but I remember when they first stated putting them up that they were blamed for all sorts of ills.

Anyway, we tried tent camping up on the rim near the Big Dry Wash Battle Site and were blown off. Did a little day hike to find the monument, then called it enough and wimped out in a motel in Payson. We weren't the only ones, a group of hikers at breakfast did the same thing.

[kevinweitzel75]

Much has been made in the news of the shift in the Earth’s axis by half a foot as a result of the Japanese earthquake. The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University’s Earth Institute has answered that question in a press release. The simply answer, is no.

Jerry McManus, a climate scientist at Columbia, answered the question with a simply no, but went on to explain just why what seems like such a big shift in the Earth’s axis is, in fact, not so big after all; or that uncommon.

While earthquakes do unleash a large amount of energy, especially large earthquakes like the Sendai earthquake, they do not release enough energy to shift the Earth’s axis enough to affect the weather.

In fact, larger shifts of Earth’s axis happen each year as a result of the fluctuating mass of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans, and these don’t affect the weather at all. These natural variations can see shifts in the Earth’s axis of up to 39 inches, which far outstrip the 6.5 inch shift of the Japanese earthquake, not to mention the comparatively tiny 2.8-inch shift of the Chile earthquake in 2010.

Even these shifts, which seem massive when you consider the object being moved, are nothing in comparison to the long-term cyclical shifts of our planet’s movement that can change temperature and climate.

Earth currently leans at an angle of 23.5 degrees as it makes its way around the sun, which causes the seasons to act as they do. But variations in the Earth’s tilt over longer timescales can have a massive effect on the seasons. And every 41,000 years or so, our planet’s tilt shifts about a degree in either direction, a shift which is the equivalent of 70 miles. At its highest tilt—24.5 degrees—more sunlight falls on the poles; at its lowest—22.1 degrees—more light falls on the equator.

There are two other astronomical cycles which affect our planet’s climate; the changing shape of its elliptical path around the sun every 100,000 years or so, and the shifting wobble of its axis—much like a spinning top—on average, every 21,000 years.

Each of the above natural variances is caused by the gravitational effect had on our planet by our moon and the other planets in our solar system.

Source: Columbia University

Source: Planetsave (http://s.tt/12txY)

And there we have the awnser. Got to love Google.

[Cultjam]

When I first moved to Phoenix in '83 the monsoons seemed to come nearly every day of the season, slamming the valley for 15 minutes after 5 PM like clockwork, putting out massive lightning strikes then evaporating in sunlight almost as fast as they hit. The humidity was bad but the storms were fantastic, I miss them.

[azbackpackr]

That is how I remember my 13 years in Tucson as well. Loved the monsoons. Everything turned green. Everything cooled off after the storm hit. Loved that little bit of humidity, too. I was in Tucson for a week last August and it was great. Nothing like monsoon season in the desert. At least, if you are getting the rain.

[Jim]

For Phoenix and Arizona 1983 is a long, long time ago. Practically Spanish rule, with the way development has gone.


Got cold up here last night, looks like 25 for Flag's low. Dry, too. Dew-points are down below zero.

[kevinweitzel75]

I lived in Tucson in '87-'89 and remember the monsoons there. AWSOME! I do miss them. We lived right behind two washes that would flow when it rained. We also used to swim in them.