Climatic variation that produces widespread, stand-replacing fire has been associated with southern oscillation events. El Nino is associated with greater soil moisture and herbaceous fuel production in spring, with fire occurrence peaking several years after El Nino events. La Nina events are associated with dry springs, with fire occurrence peaking in the same year [136]. A decline in fire frequency in interior ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest coincided with reduced El Nino-La Nina events between 1780 and 1830 [129,136]. Alternating wet and dry years resulting from El Nino-La Nina events in the mid- to late 1800s increased fire frequency.
You probably didn't need me to put this up to tell you that the dry winter of 2011 will have a high incidence of fire, especially in the very dry SE part of the state. After last winters and summers wet times, there is a lot of good cured fine fuels to carry a nice fire. So, come June expect lots of smoke in the air. Will we see more large pine eliminating fires in the Sky Islands? The infrequent stand replacing fires that have become common in SE AZ in the last 100 years favor oaks over pines, and large areas of the forest have burned in the last decade giving us areas like we see in the Rincons, in the Catalinas, and in the Santa Ritas, where the dense pine forest is mostly dead. Fun times ahead.
You may as well change the title of this to "Expect more closures" right now, so people know what to expect. I know you are planning a trip to Mt. Lemmon area this weekend, and I am planning one too, but I would not be surprised if all forests in the state were suddenly closed, without much notice. It's happened before.
There is a point of no return unremarked at the time in most lives. Graham Greene The Comedians
A clean house is a sign of a misspent life.
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