Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Any rain at this point would be nice. So we can get rid of all the pine pollen. I've never seen it this bad.

What pine pollen? ;)

[RangerKelly]

Any rain at this point would be nice. So we can get rid of all the pine pollen. I've never seen it this bad.

What pine pollen? ;)

I think any rain would be nice to put out that fire.

[azbackpackr]

Any rain at this point would be nice. So we can get rid of all the pine pollen. I've never seen it this bad.

What pine pollen? ;)

I think any rain would be nice to put out that fire.

What fire? :whistle:

[PaleoRob]

Had winds today, and clouds. Nothing else, though.

[Jim]

DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE NEEDED FOR RAIN REMAINED FAR SOUTH IN
MEXICO TODAY BUT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

From the most current Tucson NWS forecast discussion. Is this the earliest rumbling of the Monsoon?

[azbackpackr]

Lots of clouds in far northern Arizona today around Marble Canyon. Big puffy ones.

[Jim]

There's another late season low moving north of us. They're from that, along with the wind.

Tucson is poised to be in the top 5 years for the longest stretches of rain free days.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/climate/wxs ... ne2011.php

[azbackpackr]

32 degrees in Flag this morning, and my roommate has turned off the pilot light to the furnace. I'm sitting under a blanket, wearing a fleece jacket and a beanie on my head. I could turn the pilot light back on but I'm heading for Eagar pretty soon anyway.

[Jim]

Yup, looks like the low was 30 last night. June 20, and we're still having freezing temperatures and the growing season is therefore still yet to begin. Can't say we were doing super well with our lows moderating, as a week ago it was 32. I hate to say it, but moderated lows seems like one of the positives of monsoon season up here, besides nearly half our annual rain. Once the moisture moves in, lows moderate and we stop having frosts and freezes. In fact, usually we stay in the 50s for the low, or maybe high 40s later in the summer. I don't believe I have ever seen a low in the 60s here. It's all due to the altitude, and it's funny because just 1500 feet lower it can be a lot warmer at night.

[chumley]

Tucson is poised to be in the top 5 years for the longest stretches of rain free days.

Jim, did you see this nice presentation from NWS Tucson? http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/images/twc/Arti ... layer.html

While not conclusive evidence, it also shows that those years with the longest stretches of no rain also ended up with wetter-than-normal monsoons.

Another interesting tidbit is the possibility that the extensive snowpack across the west is reflecting the sun's energy and preventing some of the heat required get the monsoon going.

[Jim]

I watched that presentation. I liked how it isn't just a meteorologist making the presentation, but an "officer".

BTW, did you notice the parallel between 2011 and 2002, and the fires?

[azbackpackr]

My roommate is out of town. I re-lit the pilot light and heated the house. Then turned it off again. What a relief! Now, at midday, it's hot outside...

[Jim]

73 is hot? Oh, and 30 looks to be the low in town. 30.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobe ... FLG&num=72

[tibber]

Another interesting tidbit is the possibility that the extensive snowpack across the west is reflecting the sun's energy and preventing some of the heat required get the monsoon going.

I know that western snow pack is playing havoc with hiking plans in the Sierras and for me, Glacier National Park. We crossed nearly 20 last year on the Highline Trail but I fear from what I've read, we'll be crossing more and much deeper.

According to the GNP press release:

Due to the lingering snowpack, the Two Medicine and Cutbank Campgrounds will delay opening until at least the following week. Horse trips in the Lake McDonald and Many Glacier valley are delayed until trail and lake conditions allow these activities. Many of the park's trails and backcountry campgrounds may be under snow later than normal. Snow hazards may linger through July or into August. The placement of some backcountry suspension bridges have been delayed due to high water The folks who get the Going to the Sun Road open said "Crews are encountering the largest snowpack this late in the season and in their experience."

[azbackpackr]

73 is hot? Oh, and 30 looks to be the low in town.

Well, it seemed pretty hot on Fat Man's during late morning, and hot when I drove to Bookman's just now. Not hot hot, or Phoenix hot, just hot.

Funny too, because when I hiked the River Trail at Lee's Ferry two days ago it was about 103 degrees, and it felt great. I think I must have a faulty thermostat.

[Jim]

While hiking FR 231 out by East Pocket, I got to thinking that with today's ferocious winds, it wasn't quite feeling like lake June. I couldn't really hear much besides wind most of the time I was out. I almost forgot we are 6 days away from July. I realized, that if the monsoon doesn't start in the next week or so, it won't be early. It could still be normal or late, though. I looked at this graphic, and am left wondering if these will be some high-base dry storms, or early monsoon storms affecting the eastern part of the state.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

[chumley]

Forecast discussion seems to indicate high-based dry storms. And only 10-20% chance, followed by drying. Looks like we will be going into July dry.

[Jim]

I'm hoping for some lightning starts in the Mogollon Mountains in the Gila. That area could use a fire, below 9,000'.

[Nighthiker]

While cycling near Sun Lakes this morning heard the cicada's singing, usually means the monsoon should arrive soon. Hope the cicada's are right.

[Jim]

Barely heard any up here. We had a few start, but the wind picked up again. They might be there, but I can't or haven't been able to hear them over the 40+ mph gusts. I recall them on Monday the 20th. It's been windy since.