Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[BEEBEE]

Just :STP:

[azbackpackr]

By the way, calling the rainy season "summer monsoon" was started by the news media.

I'm no fan of the media, but the North American Monsoon is a meteorological term which describes the rainy season you speak of. It's quite likely that in everyday speech people spoke to their friends and neighbors about the "rainy season" but anybody with scientific understanding of the season knew it's name. Media sometimes talk to people who actually are experts in the field they are reporting on, and that is probably how the term monsoon became more commonplace.

Haboob on the other hand is probably a bit of a stretch...

If you want to go old skool Arizona, I suspect that you also remember when homes were refrigerated?

And no swamp coolers, just a sleeping porch with wet burlap curtains...

No, I'm serious. I do believe the media invented the term. And later the scientific types picked it up. However, this is a belief of mine with no real foundation. It would be interesting to find out which came first, the media calling it that, back in the 50's, or the scientists calling it that. Anyone good at research?

[azbackpackr]

Just :STP:

Stir away! Pretty soon you'll have tapioca!

[Jim]

Humidity, bleh! After living in Florida, and then coming out here, I hate water in the air. It makes my skin itchy, and if there is enough of it, my mold allergy acts up. Humidity is one of the only concerns I would have about moving to SW AZ. Only in summer, at least. Maybe it isn't that bad, it wasn't in Phoenix in 2008.

The monsoon name is correctly applied to our summer weather phenomenon because of the season wind shift we experience. In the past, there was some debate over whether or not it was a true monsoon, but I believe the consensus is that the Mexican or North American Monsoon is in fact a true Monsoon. A monsoon is a seasonal wind, or a seasonal wind shift, but not the storms themselves, and it doesn't have to be moist, but I think that is a common characteristics as they tend to occur in the mid-latitudes in areas that experience dry weather most of the year. You don't have to like the name or use it, but it is apt. Like alpine, I think many people fail to understand the meaning and incorrectly apply it. Summer rain is more general, and due to the uplift of mountain ranges, thunder storms can form over them, and so areas further north may call their storms monsoon storms, or monsoon season storms, when in fact they result from low pressure systems and cold fronts, not a warm moist flow and convective action. I observed this in Jackson, WY, when some folks call storms monsoon storms, but they were just thunderstorms from a cold front.

Specific names might be something you don't enjoy, but don't just discount them because of the source. The media does at least, at times, attempt to educate people. They seem to do it at a 5th grade level, with little additional information, and with no real explanation, but they try.

[BEEBEE]

Stir away! Pretty soon you'll have tapioca!

[Jim]

Monsoon comes from an Arabic word, brought to English from the Spanish. It means wind shift. Arab sailors would have known about the phenomenon and named it as there is a monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula, as well. Essentially, monsoons often form over deserts and mid-latitude areas that heat up in summer. Arabia, India, the SW USA, Australia. It's less impressive than it seems. Dry land masses heat in summer, surface lows form, air from areas closer to the equator moves in to replace it, and it brings in moisture. That is a rough explanation, but you get the idea. I think there tends to be a high pressure system in there, too. We usually have one over Texas or the plains region, and that helps steer the wind. As it moves in response to various things, so does the monsoon flow move.

[Jim]

From the NWS:

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST AND A PACIFIC LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CA COAST AND THEN EAST INTO AZ. ALTHOUGH TRACK/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL NOT CERTAIN...OVERALL CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THIS
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT DO INDICATE A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE...SO HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

While it would be nice if my days off would not be stormy, if this works out and is a good storm, this would be exciting. It just needs to track down the coast, come in over LA like the good ones do, and then move ENE over NW AZ, SE UT into Colorado and then who really cares? I don't know, out to somewhere like Ohio, or some place like that. Whatever.

Seriously though, a nice typical low for the SW US and 4 corners area. Bolster the below normal snow pack for AZ, and the San Juans and all of western CO, which is below normal according to the Grand Junction office. A brief pineapple express would be nice, too.

[chumley]

Snowbowl is doing something I can't recall them ever having done before ... opening just for this weekend, and then waiting for more snow to officially open. I suspect they made the decision based partly on the forecast potential for more snow next week. The upper mountain is fine, but the lower mountain was very thin with only light powdery snow. They "farmed" snow from all the parking lots to reinforce around the lifts. If they can get a foot or two next week, I suspect they will open full time by next weekend.

[hippiepunkpirate]

due to the uplift of mountain ranges, thunder storms can form over them

To use another scientific term, orographic uplift....perhaps my favorite meteorological term

[chumley]

perhaps my favorite meteorological term

Many years ago, one of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit editions featured a bunch of attractive tv weather-babes (reporterettes?) and one of the questions they all had to answer was their choice of 'sexiest weather term'. The best answer by far: moist and unstable.

[hippiepunkpirate]

'sexiest weather term'. The best answer by far: moist and unstable.

And here Joe wishes that the pumpkin filter was a little more advanced

[azbackpackr]

Round one for Jim, at least, when it comes to the term "monsoon."

Humidity is obviously experienced differently by different people, however.

[BEEBEE]

After living in the NY Metro area for the first 28 years of my life and working in the 95 degree summer heat with near 100% humidity is terrible. I used to work in the inner city in that heat going in and out of the projects and 5 floor walkups and I don't miss that at all. I will take our 100 + days with 20% over that anytime.

[azbackpackr]

After living in the NY Metro area for the first 28 years of my life and working in the 95 degree summer heat with near 100% humidity is terrible. I used to work in the inner city in that heat going in and out of the projects and 5 floor walkups and I don't miss that at all. I will take our 100 + days with 20% over that anytime.

Hmm...New York City in summer/Costa Rica in winter. Can the two be compared?

[BEEBEE]

Well it depends I have never been to Costa Rica but I suspect that they don't call the Ambulance and ambush you when you pull into the courtyard of the High rise project building by throw rocks at the Ambulance for fun.

[azbackpackr]

Well it depends I have never been to Costa Rica but I suspect that they don't call the Ambulance and ambush you when you pull into the courtyard of the High rise project building by throw rocks at the Ambulance for fun.

Nah, just a bit of pickpocketing is what I will have to watch out for, I'm told. I'm buying a money belt to put under my sundress.

So, I am walking in the NAU Graduation ceremony next Friday, at 1 p.m. (I am not actually going to receive my diploma until May, however. But I won't have returned from Costa Rica in time for the May ceremony.) Anyway, back to TOPIC, I was wondering about the forecast 7 days from now. Since next Friday's forecast is not up yet on the NWS site, I chose weather.com because they do offer the 10-day forecast. And they are predicting snow showers. Well, at least graduation is indoors, but likely we will have to walk a ways to get to it.

[Jim]

I think they can open, at least for the weekend. They'll make a lot of money if they do, and a storm is forecast (at this point) for the middle of next week. Depending on lower run conditions, they might be OK for skiing. I've seen them operating in mid-winter with large open patches in the Hart Prairie run, so early season issues should be acceptable by an eager crowd. Plus, they probably want to be able to say they opened at this date, and need to compete with Sunrise. Snowslide Canyon Snotel is only reporting 24 inches of snow, so they didn't do as bad as it might seem. Frankly, for a mountain like the Peaks, unless it gets a big wet storm that has a perfect mix of moisture and a snow-line in the mid to high 8,000' level, having 12" in early December is pretty good. December of 2007 was probably one of, if not the best December they had in the last decade or so. They had a great base by mid-month, and the next 2 months were great.

Myself included, people want winter to turn on like a light-bulb and be cold and snowy in December, and then (at least I do) in March have the snow melt off and the temps warm up rapidly. It isn't like that, and in some locations it isn't until January that winter really arrives, and it peaks in March or early April. I talked to an older ski patrol fellow back in January of 2010, and he told me that in El Nino years, they typically don't get their big snows until mid to late January. Everyone was disappointed that the season had been a little bit of a dud to that point, but a week late we had the big one, and then Fred Sanford was off to see Elizabeth.

As far as orographic lift, the San Juan really seem to benefit from that. The NWS over there seems far more optimistic about the potential storm next week and is citing orographic lift as a player in producing snow showers even a day after the main low passes by. That orographic lift is something else, I tells ya. It is a big part of why the Rim area is so moist, and helps the Peaks out a lot for being in a slight rain shadow from the Rim proper.

[chumley]

I think the Sierra benefit greatly from orographic lift as well. And in SLC, Little and Big Cottonwood funnel air up the canyons until it dumps at the top. Sometimes Brighton will get a foot more than Solitude, and Alta more than Snowbird, just a couple of miles further up canyon. It's actually pretty amazing to see.

[Jim]

The Sierra and California wouldn't be half of what they are without orographic lift. The Great Basin Desert would be a grassland or savanna of pinyon and juniper, if the Sierra and orographic lift were not players. I suspect Utah would be far wetter, and Colorado, too. Even AZ would benefit greatly, I suspect. Las Vegas might be a farming area, instead of a dry desert.

According to what I have read about the geology of California and the Sierra, which are still growing and could be much higher in the future, the state in general and the range is moving to the NW, and eventually the Gulf of California will extend well north, up to western Nevada, and in time the rift will extend well up the west coast, to Oregon or so. Millions of years out, of course. By that time, will the Sierra be 18,000' or 20,000' high? Perhaps. California is like Madagascar, and is separating and moving out to sea. In 30 million years, will it be a isolated area with species evolving in different directions from the continent? Perhaps. What will there continent look like then? We'll all be dead, so I guess it doesn't matter. Right now, it all comes down to that all important orographic lift.

[Jim]

In the spirit of snow, here is an interesting link that summarizes snowpacks in the west. AZ is doing alright, but most other locations are below normal. California is really low. http://www.thorntonweather.com/snow-basins.php