Atmosphere Comparison

Jim · Post by **Jim** » May 15 2009 8:25 pm

The endless chatter of weather.

JimmyLyding · Post by **JimmyLyding** » Feb 23 2011 10:58 am

It looks like we're getting into another pattern of storms rolling in about every week. Hope a lot of moisture makes it up to AZ.

joebartels · Post by **joebartels** » Feb 24 2011 6:09 pm

noticed in checking the Tule trailhead it states for Sat night...
80% chance of rain, 1-3 inches of snow down to 3,400 feet

My video response appears to be... working

big_load · Post by **big_load** » Feb 25 2011 10:28 am

I'm in Portland OR for a bit, where two inches of snow fell yesterday and temps dipped into the 20s. It was considered a bigger calamity than if the same thing happened in Phoenix.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Feb 25 2011 10:53 am

Joe I think there might be 1-3" in Scottsdale possible. I've seen forecasts dropping the snow level below 2k.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 25 2011 11:10 am

big_load wrote:I'm in Portland OR for a bit, where two inches of snow fell yesterday and temps dipped into the 20s. It was considered a bigger calamity than if the same thing happened in Phoenix.

Those coasties are weird up in the PNW. They freak out when the thermometer hits 80, and when it goes below 40. All that humidity has left them unusually tolerant of water, and unable to tolerate temperatures outside of a very narrow band. I'd like to see them deal with a day like we can get here at altitude when it can be in the 30s for the low and near 90 for the high.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 25 2011 1:04 pm

So, with the impressive storm from last weekend, we have a monthly total of 2.68" in Flagstaff, which is already above the total monthly normal. This next storm looks to be pretty good. I wonder if we'll get above 4 inches for the month up here. That would be impressive. I think we will probably go back to being very dry for March. It just seems this wet spell can't last.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Feb 25 2011 2:48 pm

I'd tend to agree Jim. Two decent storms on consecutive weekends seems like the most a La Niña winter will provide. I would hope for a similar short-lived pattern shift toward the end of March, before settling into windy and dry spring conditions. Looks like the Golden Gate escaped the snow today, though that would've been a sight to see. Apparently it's been 35 years since the last one!

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 25 2011 5:05 pm

Yeah, it is seems likely that we won't see much in March, but a good storm in the middle to late part of the month would be nice. Hard to believe winter is nearly at an end, and the cool windy spring will soon be here.

Granted, I have only been here since August of 2006, but all of the the Marches I have seen have been drier than normal, with March of 2010 being the wettest with only 50% of the so called normal precipitation. My experience continues a long term trend of well below normal March precipitations going back to the middle 90s. With the exception of a few years (1998, 2005, 2006) all have been below normal, and most were well below normal with less than 50% of the mean.

I was looking at records from wunderground.com, and assuming their records are the official numbers, I notice that prior to the mid 90s when the recent dry trend appears to have developed, Flagstaff had very, very wet Marches. In the early 90s and going back through the 80s and into the middle 1970s, most years were above normal and some were well above normal. At times in the middle 1970's, Flagstaff's March precipitation varied wildly but appears to be above normal overall. During this wet time, there were dry Marches, but they seem to be rare. Prior to the mid-70s, the 50s and 60s were very dry, with only rare years being above the current 30 year mean.

It seems to me, the current 30 year mean we see is still probably reporting from 1970 to 2000. Excluding the few wet years since the end of the early 90s wet period, Flagstaff has seen a return to long term dry Marches with only occasional wet Marches. Because of the wet period from the 70s to the 90s, so many long-term residents may have a slightly skewed opinion of what it "should" be like here. The records I looked at stopped in the late 40s, but over all, Flagstaff has pretty dry Marches with only occasional wet years. Long term, it looks like the normal mean, should really be drier, and the current 30 year mean (assuming 1970 to 2000) is not representational of the long term.

I hope the wunderground data is accurate, because after looking at the numbers and putting together a spreadsheet, things don't ad up right.
The current NWS March mean is 2.62 inches.
The Wunderground 1970 to 1999 mean is 3.43 inches, 2000 has no data. So who knows what is going on here? The rest is based on the wunderground data:
The 1980 to 2010 30 year mean is 2.74 inches.
The 15 year mean from 1996 to 2010 is 1.17 inches
The mean of the records from 1948 to 2010 is 2.10, but that is inflated by the 20 year wet period.

None of this says anything about those year's annual precipitation, or the year's winter (December to March) precipitation. Regardless of the data accuracy, I have had people in their 50s who grew up in Flag tell me that the 80s and early 90s were a much wetter time. They never really say much about the time before the 80s, but I have heard the 50s and 60s were a dry time, and the last 15 years have definitely been dry. My point to all this, we seem to undergo long term swings in precipitation from wet to dry, with occasional outlier years. We appear to be in a trend that is emerging as dry and it will probably continue for quite a while. Eventually, we will probably swing back to an extended period of wet Marches. Time will tell, but for the near future, it looks like we should ignore the mean of 2.62 and accept a March with a mean precipitation of 1 to 1.5 inches as pretty normal.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Feb 25 2011 8:34 pm

DPS posted this today, I got it via NAU email:

DPS plans advance closure of I-17 northbound Saturday
The Department of Public Safety is planning to close Interstate 17 northbound at the Sedona/Oak Creek Canyon (SR179) exit 298 at 6 p.m. Saturday, Feb. 26, with an anticipated reopening at 6 a.m. Sunday, Feb. 27.
The closure is in anticipation of a severe snowstorm expected to move through the area beginning Saturday.
Southbound I-17 lanes will remain open until conditions force their closure.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Feb 26 2011 10:07 am

Wow. The updated point forecast for the peaks at 10k is 26-40" by Sunday morning. I can only hope! I rescheduled my ski trip for Monday.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 26 2011 10:12 am

I'm planning on Humphrey on Monday, perhaps you'd like to skin to the summit and ski down? We can engage in a rousing discourse over Snowbowl snow making.

writelots · Post by **writelots** » Feb 26 2011 10:23 am

Hmmm...maybe I need to change one of my hiking trips to a snowshoeing adventure!

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Feb 26 2011 10:57 am

I'd be up for the rousing discourse, but I am quite confident that my body would kill me if I tried to do any serious vertical ascents at that elevation right now. I have a respiratory infection and have a tough enough time getting the oxygen I need while sitting on the couch at 1000feet!

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Feb 26 2011 6:50 pm

Sitting here in Flag, waiting for the snowstorm that was supposed to be here hours ago. I wonder if ADOT went ahead with the plan to close I-17 at 6 p.m.

The good thing is that if it is a slow-moving storm, (if it actually exists...) then it not only will have a chance to dump more snow on us, but also may go well into Sunday night, which would mean a SNOW DAY for me, a school bus driver. I would not mind that at all!

It also would be very fun to cross country ski around here before the plows get busy, early in the morning.

I don't, however, relish shoveling snow off the roof. My roommate had to do that a lot last winter. He said it was fun. Takes all kinds...

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 26 2011 7:21 pm

It's hanging around out by the Colorado River. I read it is fast moving, so when is it going to get here? Slow and wet would be nice.

chumley · Post by **chumley** » Feb 27 2011 8:47 am

Total bust.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 27 2011 9:24 am

Yeah, the 7 to 12 that Snowbowl reports is not the 18 to 24 the forecast was calling for. I still wouldn't say that was a total dud. If it wasn't being compared to last weeks storm, that would be a good total for the mountain in a dry year. Town picked up over half an inch of liquid as snow. Looks like 5 or 6 inches of snow outside. Flagstaff is over 3 inches for the month.

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Feb 27 2011 10:04 am

Yeah, I am a bit disappointed, but it has started lightly snowing again. It's very dry, and blowing around, too.

Jim · Post by **Jim** » Feb 27 2011 10:09 am

Hence, the dry cold?

azbackpackr · Post by **azbackpackr** » Feb 27 2011 10:46 am

Yeah, but I am pretty sure we will have a regular school day tomorrow.

Atmosphere Comparison

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