Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

Early next week is beginning to look interesting. Hopefully not another case of premature precipitation from the NWS:

ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP AS SNOW ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH AN ALL-RAIN EVENT FOR
ELEVATIONS BELOW 6000 FT. ALTHOUGH A LOT CAN CHANGE BY THEN AND WE
RECOMMEND FREQUENTLY CHECKING UPDATES...WE CAN SAY WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORTHCOMING...AND WE WILL GET
SOME MUCH NEEDED PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Jim]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=fgz

Graphics are always better than the frustrating word.

[big_load]

Early next week is beginning to look interesting.

I can't adequately describe how funny that is, especially after viewing the map. That doesn't seem like a configuration that can be predicted a week in advance with any confidence.

[Ckzona]

check it out.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/Weather_Gra ... layer.html

Also to add Sunrise ski plants to be open by December 19th

[joebartels]

I found Chris Farley much easier to understand...

[azbackpackr]

Hmmm....

Looks like we're in for some real fun single digit overnight temps in E. AZ and N. AZ, Grand Canyon, etc. I'll let you know if I get frostbite on my face, riding my bike to work...

[azbackpackr]

MINUS 3 right now at my house! (best smilie I could find, since we don't seem to have a "brrrrrr" one!)

Oh, and it's clear and dry. I think there is remaining snow somewhere, but only up very high. There is a forecast for snow, starting Sunday. The high today is supposed to get to a balmy 37 degrees. Usually it warms up a LOT before it snows, and it looks like we'll have temps in the 50's tomorrow and then snow on Sunday.

[chumley]

CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 12 TO 18 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

3-4 days away ... so I'm not too confident. But we can hope, right?

.... with another major storm predicted for the end of next week too.

[azbackpackr]

Yeah, better take that one with a grain of salt. I'll believe it when I see it. When I post a photo on here of myself literally skiing out the front door, like I did a couple of winters ago.

[Ckzona]

Yeh this next storm looks like a ski resort starter. Very similar to last years snow too with it possible lasting over a week. Looks like they are calling for up to 4ft for the whole week long

[Jim]

I too, will believe the totals and the storms when I see them. I am 100% sure there will be storms, and snow, but it will remain to be seen if we get the 2 to 3 feet of snow that is potential for the period of Monday to Thursday. If we get that, and the storms have a moist subtropical flow, the snow will hopefully be moist and it will be great to create conditions to open the ski resorts and start the winter season on the Peaks.

[azbackpackr]

Webcam at Sunrise Ski Park: http://www.sunriseskipark.com/webcam1.shtml

It's not open yet, but unlike Snowbowl, they do manufacture their base snow. Plus, it's a lot bigger.

[big_load]

It's snowing pretty good here right now, our first real winter snow. I might have mentioned that we had a freak 3" wet, heavy snow in mid-October, when there were still green leaves on the trees. That's a bad situation, with lots of branches and whole trees down.

[azbackpackr]

It has been gloomy here all day. I finally realized it wasn't too cold to ride my bike, though. But by that time, I had very little time left before I had to go to work. Short ride better than no ride. Tomorrow it is going to snow, maybe...

[azbackpackr]

From this morning's Flagstaff forecast:

Monday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 31. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 27 mph increasing to between 36 and 39 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Emphasis is mine in the last sentence. The forecasters, going out on a limb and all agreeing it's going to snow. Usually you don't see "100%" chance of rain or snow--it's almost always shown as "90%" or less.

Gee, I guess they think it's going to snow!

Is it snowing today in Flag?

[Jim]

Clouds and sun so far.

[Jim]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... rd+Warning

A Blizzards a comin' Maud, better get the cows in the barn!!!1

A forecast for coning totals through to Saturday!!!!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Cows!!!!

Mooooooooooo!!!!!

[chumley]

Way back on page 11, this thread got hijacked from when the monsoon would start to when the first lasting snowfall would occur.

The summer monsoon is gone. Maybe it will be active next year. Now it's on to winter. Obviously, we'll get some rain before we get snow, but that isn't too interesting. When will we get the first lasting snows of the 2009-2010 season? Will Snow Bowl be open under highly favorable el nino conditions that drop 4 feet by Thanksgiving Weekend? Will this winter produce like we want it to

I am now ready to put my money on December 7th.
And I'll go out on a limb and predict that another good storm (or a few medium storms) will come through in the next couple of weeks and Snowbowl will open Christmas weekend.

[Jim]

I'm hoping they open next Saturday. If town gets 2 to 3 feet this week, they might get 3 to 4 or 5 feet, and with grooming they may have a soft opening Friday and an official opening of Saturday.

[PaleoRob]

Just checked NWS, they're predicting 12-24 inches in Flag tomorrow through Tuesday.