Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[RedRoxx44]

Saw somewhere Death Valley recorded most rainfall ever in November. Should be a awesome wildflower season in the southwest, hopefully.

[azbackpackr]

After mostly being missed by the fall rain, we got our first snow that stuck, up here in Eagar. We were supposed to get only 1/2 inch, but it looks more like 2 inches out there. Brr. I'm trying to enjoy it. I'm so used to spending my winters in the desert, summers in the mountains. Very spoiled. Had a great run of it for 12 years. I wore sandals yesterday, with socks, before it snowed. Now I will have to switch to shoes, alas!

[chumley]

So. How bout that heat!?

[Jim]

It's a hoax! Believe that. It wasn't 66 in Flagstaff on Thursday. Everything is better than before. bESt wINtAr Ever!

[Jim]

Seriously though, winter heat like 83 or what is forecast in my old neighborhood in December is not fun. 66 in Flag in December is nuts. It has been nearly or was 60 all week, too. At least there was rain this year, even if it was in November. These hot dry winters have terrible air quality, and you never get a reprieve from that heat. People I knew in Pima County hated them, but I liked the colder winters the last few years in Marana. I guess AZ Snowbowl can make snow, but that isn't really fun. A warm dry winter was forecast, so enjoy what comes if you manage not to have a repeat of last winter. Sierra Snowpack is at something like 21% of average to date, 4% of April 1 max, but it's still early. I'll check back in 3 months. https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... e=PLOT_SWC

Complaining about the temps is one thing, you should be paying attention to your reservoirs, what happens in the upper basin states, and your power bills. If the water levels drop under the intakes at Powell and Mead, as probably will happen in the next 12 to 15 months provided there isn't a sudden change in winter precipitation pattern, you'll be in for some fun. Data center complaint thread?

Per the net, Powell is 51 feet above the power generating intake levels. 3541 currently and 3490 for the intakes. https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ I bet there is a betting website for this subject. Navajo is 58% full, Blue Mesa at 49%, and Flaming Gorgeous at 79%. Snowpack is not terrible in the Upper. Colorado https://snowpack.water-data.com/upperco ... p?getall=1

[big_load]

Meanwhile in the hills NW NJ, we've had snow on the ground since 10 days after Halloween, with another six inches last night. It's been cold, too, so the local ski hill had a record early opening.

Fortunately, we missed a lot of it during our AZ road trip, although we still got nailed in Iowa's post-Thanksgiving storm along the way.

[Jim]

Could there be a Christmas miracle? The 7 day shows some potential. The precipitation has spread over much of Arizona, but SE AZ looks dry. Oh, well.

Edit for an updated 168 hour QPF 12/21

[chumley]

In actual atmosphere comparisons, NOAA announced yesterday that they've officially introduced AI-driven weather models into their forecasting repertoire. There's a bunch of nerdy stuff in their press release for anybody interested. Let's hope the result is more accurate forecasts and farther in advance.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... her-models

[azbackpackr]

Heading for Flag tomorrow to be with family, and...
"I'm dreaming of a wet Christmas..."

[chumley]

The forecast for the Sierra is looking impressive, especially in the Tahoe area which may see upwards of 10 feet of snow. Even the lowlands of the San Joaquin valley may see more than 2” of rain.

[azbackpackr]

@chumley
Yes, and that's great, but I'm just floored by the 100% chance of rain and possible thunderstorms on Christmas Day in Flagstaff. I'm just glad that my going there and coming home are not supposed to be rainy.

[Jim]

https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/mai ... r-syndrome

This seems appropriate.

[Jim]

Anyway.....
yes, the California precipitation forecast is very impressive, with many, many feet of snow possible in the Sierra Nevada. Doesn't look like as much will make in to Arizona, but the western deserts might get a fair amount of precipitation.

[RedRoxx44]

Getting some rain! Merry Christmas everyone--

[azbackpackr]

@RedRoxx44
Same to you! And it's been drizzling off and on in Flagstaff for hours. I'm not sure what the plants and trees think about this spring like weather. My understanding is that some of the plants will get a little confused and start to bud.

[chumley]

Well, with record warmth and record-tying snowfall deficit in much of the west, I’m happy to report that it’s a lovely wintry eve here in the New York tri-state area.

Back in the desert perhaps we can hold out some hope for a warm soaking New Year’s rain. Sadly I’m not counting on it.

[tibber]

@chumley
nice looking snow! I did like the little bit of rain we got over Xmas.

[big_load]

@chumley
It's too bad that "wintry mix" isn't a salty snack. I'm getting tired of shoveling and breaking up the ice.

[chumley]

New Year ... old story. Can't really complain when something falls from the sky, but early indicators are for light amounts across Arizona (generally under .25" down low and less than .5" in the hills), with very high snow levels—over 8,000ft with accumulations limited to >10kft! Rain on the Mogollon Rim at this time of year is not my first choice.

[Jim]

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/su ... ement=wteq
https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdb ... egion.html

For Colorado snowpack graphs and charts.

Yeah, rain isn't what you guys want to see, but warm and dry was forecast for the winter. At least your November was wet, and after an unusually wet September and October for many areas. Hopkins and the Santa Ritas, as well as Rincons and Catalinas, have had pretty impressive totals going back 3 months, now. Those areas also did fairly well for late December, last week. The wet fall also seems to have made the upper basin WY precipitation look good, but it isn't snowpack.

I was unimpressed with the reported totals out of AZ Snowbowl for the recent storm. As of yesterday, 3 inches in 3 days. Hardly a real storm. Snowslide canyon looks to have increased the SWE, but was that due to rain? Looks like it. Snow depth decreased over the last week.

https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reportGene ... AVG::value

Still, warm and dry is what I see so far for the Colorado River watershed. Maybe this changes a lot in the next 3 months before the typical April 1 maximum?

Here is something else fun: https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/stud ... ations.pdf

Should be an interesting 3 months, or so. With current basin graphs tracking near the minimum WY (2014-2015?), the minimum inflow amount might be more likely. The seasonal loss of Powell and Mead to generate Electricity should be an interesting variable for many places. Especially given the current administrations hatred of solar and wind on federal lands. I know coal is everyone's favorite, but APS blew up the Page Generating station a few years back. And after all those deliveries I made for upgrades in 2007-2008!

And for fun, here is California, which has no impact on Arizona water and power supplies.
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... e=PLOT_SWC

Added 12/31: A bright spot. That wet fall means the soils may remain moist during the winter and into the spring, and therefore not absorb the spring runoff, whether it ends up being abundant or well below normal. https://climate.colostate.edu/blog/inde ... -colorado/

Additional CO basin and lake links
https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/hydrodata/status_maps/
https://lakepowell.water-data.com/