Much of southern Arizona and New Mexico are expected to see above average potential for wildfire in April.

[Pivo]

“We've had a very low snowpack. It's been very dry,” said Jim Wallman, a meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise. “That's why we expect our early start to the season there. So probably sometime later this month, it should really start to pick up [in the Southwest].”

But unlike other recent years, he said that a robust Southwestern monsoon is expected, meaning activity should temper in July and August. That historically common pattern frees up fire crews and other resources to respond to incidents as other parts of the West pick up. For example, the Northwest is expected to be very active come July.

https://www.ksut.org/2025-04-07/wildfir ... izona-nifc

[Jim]

Well, April, May, June and potentially July depending on the rain timing. https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predict ... utlook.pdf You have to look at the sources these places use, as they often don't understand them or wrote it poorly. It won't be above in April and gone by May. I added July, just because I know what can happen.

It would probably be a good time for another fire in the Catalinas. Ritas are long over due. Well, most ranges are.

There is always a weird disconnect between reality, messaging, and what people want. [ Wildfires have grown in size in rece ... es past ] Just from that to this thread. Of course, this starts to get into the 1964 Wilderness Act, and the magic thinking involved in it which leads to the present and continued condition of places that have seen fire shift from a stabilizing feedback vs a destabilizing feedback. A cute little terms from the graphic in the nature article.