Coronavirus and hiking

[DixieFlyer]

Now that we are living in the era of "social distancing", it shouldn't be too surprising to see some hiking venues closed.

Here are a couple of examples:
* The Navajo Nation has closed all of their tribal parks: https://navajonationparks.org/public-notice/
* The road up to Kitt Peak is closed to the public...here is a pic that a friend took when he attempted to ride his bicycle up to the top: [ broken link removed ]

It would seem like hiking, especially in remote areas, would be one of the safer things that you can do...but with the frenzy that is going on, I imagine that there will be more closures in the coming days

[rcorfman]

I don't understand the whole toilet paper hoarding thing. Kleenex would make more sense as it will be our noses that are running, not our asses.

I always use TP to blow my nose, then throw it in the toilet. If I'm on trail, I just use the single or double barrel technique depending on my situation.

[chumley]

it will be our noses that are running

I think you're joking, but just in case you aren't (or other people reading this don't realize it), if you read the CDC link I provided earlier, you'd know that a runny nose is not one of the common symptoms caused by covid-19.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ptoms.html

[DixieFlyer]

I see that shuttle service on the south rim of the Grand Canyon has been suspended: https://www.nps.gov/grca/planyourvisit/ ... update.htm

[LosDosSloFolks]

@chumley
Indeed, I was joking. Poor use of levity on my part. I often assume others are as warped as myself.

[herdbull]

@hikeaz
I had 10:1 odds on yellow but he just couldn't pull it off.

[CannondaleKid]

Trending search on the Target website this morning:
1. Toilet paper
2. Womens swimsuits (?)
3. Hand sanitizer
4. Baby wipes
5. Womens shoes (???)
6. Face mask
7. Shower curtain (??)

On a personal note, I have 2 sons in Minnesota:
The oldest, who has two kids is able and is now working at home, both my grandkids are out of school indefinitely. Luckily the older goes to a advanced placement school where everyone has Chromebooks so he is able to continue online. The younger goes to public school with only one iPad per classroom so no 'learning at home' for her, other than the extensive amount of books and science-type projects they have in the home.

My younger son is still working as an essential employee for Medtronic (a manufacturer of ventilators) however a co-worker is very sick and based on her extreme symptoms the doctor said it appear to be coronavirus... but they have no testing kit at the moment. My son said he'd let me know later today, but due to close working quarters with the possibly infected worker it is very likely he will be sent home to self-quarantine, yes, even though he is an essential employee.

[RowdyandMe]

@LosDosSloFolks
Well what I have noticed, 5 days ago I went to Walmart just to get a couple of things and no toilet paper or paper towels.
Well I went 2 days ago to get some cat food and I couldn’t believe how afraid people are becoming. There was no butter no bread the meat isle was empty. People were just filling up carts with what ever they could get their hands on.
Walmart is a 24 hour store but they changed their hours to 6am to11pm. They cut their hours back because they have been running out of food. It is just crazy I am not a hoarder but I did buy 4 cases of IPA just the bare necessities.

[RedRoxx44]

Well, I predict a massive new baby boom generation. What name shall we call them --the Quaranteen generation as teen agers, the Covid cluster??

[LindaAnn]

@RedRoxx44 Coronials

[CannondaleKid]

Coronials

Sounds good to me!

[hikeaz]

@RedRoxx44 Coronials

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe ... quarantine

[Tough_Boots]

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe ... quarantine

A link to the biggest propaganda media outlet in Turkey right here in our very own HAZ forum-- now I've seen it all. These are truly dim times.

[wildwesthikes]

If you've been laid off recently it would appear you are about to have a bright future in plastics.

[hikeaz]

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe ... quarantine

A link to the biggest propaganda media outlet in Turkey right here in our very own HAZ forum-- now I've seen it all. These are truly dim times.

Merely a Coronials reference. Serenity....

[LosDosSloFolks]

Below is a letter that was forwarded to me written by David Kriebel, PHD... Epidemiologist from the school of public health at UMass Lowell.
I then forwarded it to a client who shared it with his golfing buddy who happens to be a retired CEO of a major "big pharma" corporation. His response will follow after this letter...


Thinking of you all, and hoping you are well. I’ve been following the research on the epidemiology of corona pretty closely as it emerges day by day, and I thought you might appreciate a brief perspective. I very much agree that the best things that we can do right now to slow the epidemic are the personal hygiene and social distancing that everyone is talking about. In the U.S., we may be a little behind already in these responses, but we must try. The time to enact strong measures is before there are cases popping up all around us. In other words, limit social contacts as much as you can, right now.

But I want to add some modestly encouraging news as well.

I just read a paper out yesterday by epidemiologists in Wuhan and at Harvard analyzing the data on the first 25,000 cases in Wuhan. They fit a standard mathematical model to the epidemic, something that is pretty well understood and well-accepted in the field (Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. Chaolong Wang and others, medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030593).

They calculated that, in the early days, before Chinese New Year and before anything was being done to stop it, each new case infected approximately 3 people. This is a statistic called the basic reproductive number, and it’s not hard to understand what it means: the disease will spread at an ever-accelerating pace as the number infected triples every incubation period, which is around 5 days. Yikes.

But, the good news is that by mid-February, after aggressive quarantine, tracing of contacts of infected cases, and rather severe social distancing measures, the basic reproductive number fell to about 0.3. When this number is less than one, it means that the epidemic is dying out, that new cases don’t reproduce themselves.

The authors estimate that, if their model is correct and conditions continue as they were in late February, there will be no new cases in Wuhan, population 10 million, by the end of April or early May. How far behind Wuhan are we? We don’t know, but perhaps, if the country stays the current course and follows strict isolation policies, then perhaps we aren’t that far behind. With luck.

There’s another interesting finding in the paper. Making certain assumptions about how an epidemic works, they could estimate how many cases there were in Wuhan who never came to attention; they were either completely asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. They were never tested, etc. The authors estimated that at least 59% of infected cases were never identified. This means a couple things. First, it is likely that these people were infectious, for some days, passing the disease to others, while going about life as “healthy” people. So, this is one reason why social distancing is so important. But another important implication is that the disease is moving through the population, changing people from “susceptible” to “immune” without having to pass through “sick”. In the long run, this is how this story resolves; the population will become largely immune. Some will die (perhaps as many as 1% of those who are infected, although heavily concentrated in frail elderly), some more will get sick, survive and become immune, while others – and their data suggest a majority -- will become immune asymptomatically. New generations will probably face the risk anew, but hopefully a vaccine will come soon, to help them out.

So, think of the next few weeks this way: you are protecting yourself from getting sick, but just as importantly, you are participating in a collective action to drive down the spread of the disease, protecting many many others whom you do not know, but who should thank you for helping them to stay healthy.

I’ve spent my entire career waiting for the word “epidemiologist” to be uttered on late-night TV, and now that we’re here, I realize it’s another case of “be careful what you wish for”.

I hope this helps. Stay safe!
Love, David

Here is the response on the above from the retired CEO...


I like this analysis. It is clear and a reasonable treatise.Two things that are not in his analysis are the mutation rate of the virus, and second and third waves of infection. These are probably related. When we were developing AIDS drugs, we found a single drug would knock down the viral load for about 6 months, then mutation let the virus escape. That is why patients are treated with a cocktail of three drugs today. Took us 10 years to get things right. And, today both Singapore and Hong Kong are reporting a growing second wave of infection... Not good.. In the end, what we are being asked to do, self isolate and sanitation are our best tools. Again, if you need help running errands, Paula and I are available.., Stay safe.

[Tough_Boots]

Below is a letter that was forwarded to me written by David Kriebel, PHD... Epidemiologist from the school of public health at UMass Lowell.
I then forwarded it to a client who shared it with his golfing buddy who happens to be a retired CEO of a major "big pharma" corporation. His response will follow after this letter...

Reminds me of emails my mother used to send me with subject lines beginning "fwd: fwd: fwd: fwd: fwd: fwd: fwd:".

This is not how reliable info is circulated.

[LosDosSloFolks]

@Tough_Boots wrote..."This is not how reliable info is circulated"
That is indeed true of many, if not most, forwarded emails...but that is not the case here.

[Tough_Boots]

That is indeed true of many, if not most, forwarded emails...but that is not the case here.

I then forwarded it to a client who shared it with his golfing buddy who happens to be a retired CEO of a major "big pharma" corporation.

Sure seems reliable to me...

[wildwesthikes]

@Tough_Boots
DOI links are how institutions access formal science research. It's literally a scientific paper on the cutting edge of studying the epidemiology of COVID-19.

People like Dr. Fauci's team, etc. will utilize a DOI link like the one provided in the email and take note of the parameters to possibly attempt to duplicate for peer review I.e. the work that goes into informing policy and treatment.

Or...

Wait for it....

It's a chain letter. Go back to watching your TV news (just jokes guys, just jokes).

[cactuscat]

Xanterra closing all operations at Grand Canyon by Friday noon.

Please read the attached announcement (copied from the park-wide email sent at 9:16 PM):

Announcement of Xanterra Operations Closure Friday, March 20th, at Noon

Good evening all.

Developments are rapidly taking shape around the COVID-19 emergency action plan. Late today, the company announced the decision to close all Xanterra Travel Collection company operations effective this Friday, March 20th.

That means for us at Grand Canyon, that we’ll be checking guests out of rooms Friday morning, serving them breakfast and then suspending all guest operations by noon. Train operations will end after Thursday’s train. The closure is planned through May 31st.

The park will remain open to visitors. Visitors will be allowed access to open spaces. The visitor center, remains closed, but hiking trails, view pullouts and the east and west roads will be open to visitors. The plan is to open the gate to the west rim road. I don’t have timing for that, and it may have already been open.

I know this comes as a relief to many of you along with real anxiety about what happens next. We are anticipating that the company will be issuing detailed information on Monday in regards to what the next steps are for all of you regarding work schedules, housing, meals and more. I’m confident that we will be issuing a comprehensive plan that will address all of our top concerns.

Thank you for all you do in the coming days as we care for our final guests and transition efforts to put our operation to rest while we all work through this unprecedented emergency together.


Mia Bell
General Manager