Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[chumley]

I would love to see a daily rolling review of the 7-day precipitation forecast maps versus the radar estimated precipitation that actually occurred over that same period.

I don't know of any sources that report precipitation beyond the last 3 days. But it would be interesting to see just how reliable such forecasts are.

It seems to me that they're the scientific equivalent of throwing spaghetti at a wall.

[Jim]

Yeah, the models can change a lot day to day, without any precipitation, and don't seem to handle thunderstorm forecasts very well. I see them as more of a guide this time of year, but they are fairly accurate for the winter storms. Model QPF was not that impressive for last night, but the Tucson area picked up a lot of rain.

Mount Hopkins gage recorded 1.81 inches, which is great! That's approaching 3 inches in 7 days. Should be very lush down there this August.

In the Orient, they failed miserably. Forecasts were for over 2 inches over the last 4 days, and the TV people were very certain of this. About a quarter of an inch fell, if anything in some areas.

[Jim]

https://www.weather.gov/media/abq/Brief ... utlook.pdf

Updated outlook from the ABQ NWS.

It seems that heavy late June rain in SE AZ, and other parts of Arizona, wasn't actually monsoonal, even if it looked just like it. So, I guess 2024 won't be like 2022 with an actual early monsoon start. Either way, 3 inches of rain in the Ritas is a lot, I think, before July 4th. Probably helps a lot, too, regardless of whether it is monsoonal or otherwise.

[chumley]

So far this monsoon, most of the Phoenix metro is trending below normal, while most of the Tucson metro is trending above normal.

[chumley]

For the second time since records have been kept, PHX had an average temperature over 100 degrees for a calendar month.

Good news! It was cooler this year than last year!

*Ignore that meteorologists don’t understand plural vs possessive in the use of apostrophes.

[Jim]

I counted only two 118 degree days and zero 119 days at Sky Harbor. Still plenty hot.

https://cales.arizona.edu/climate/misc/ ... Precip.png

Seasonal rain totals for SE AZ are not terrible, especially for Ritas, my special lover.

[chumley]

The National Weather Service is predicting good chances for storms to reach the valley today with the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe winds.

A comically entertaining social media farce is out there causing panic with tornado predictions from Mexico to Prescott and is possibly on a new mix of meds resulting in aggressive arguments and amusing retorts.

I would love for it to rain over my house today. But despite the predictions from both NWS and Nostradumbass I’ll believe it when it when it happens!

[Jim]

For years I have read propaganda pieces that tell us Phoenix and to a lesser extent, all of Arizona will be unlivable due to heat. Yeah, okay. They usually are written by people who live in unlivable places, now.

I can air condition 125 to a comfortable 80 to 85, and I can find a pool. There is no escaping this humidity. A dewpoint around 80 is unlivable.

[azbackpackr]

@Jim_H
I'm planning to move back to Tucson within the next year or so. I spent 3 weeks there recently, and enjoyed being there, despite the heat. Daily bike rides starting around sunrise worked out fine. Trips to the Catalinas can be done in carpools with the hiking club on a weekly basis. I moved away from there 25 years ago.

[chumley]

It was a relatively pleasant morning for a self-propelled bicycle ride on the streets of the greater Phoenix metroplex.

[RedRoxx44]

Frigging humid for the morning hood walk, back at the house with all clothing damp and wet hair. Pretty clouds hugging just below the top of the Catalinas' and Rincons'. Will hopefully be back to southern ireland by mexico this weekend. Had rain last night and the night before, and big storms along the border.

[Jim]

@azbackpackr
Good luck with it. Let's see who gets back there first.

[chumley]

PHX has recorded a record 81 consecutive days of temps 100 or above. The current streak broke the previous 1993 record of 77 days on Sunday. With the forecast showing no signs of letting up, would anybody care to wager when the first <100 day will occur? Note that the date for the average temperature in PHX to drop to 99 is Sept 11 (based on the 1895-2024 average) and Sept 20 (based on the 1990-2024 average).

The current forecasts for 6-10 days, 8-14 days, and 3-4 weeks out all trend Arizona to be more likely above normal so for now it seems to be a slam dunk that we will eclipse 100 consecutive days of 100+ temps.

[outdoor_lover]

@chumley September 22

[diablo]

@chumley - September 6, I’m feeling optimistic.

[joebartels]

all wagers are $100,000.00, house takes 3.5%

[FOTG]

November 3.

[chumley]

November 3.

I appreicate the humor, but to be serious I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we actually rode the 100s into October.

[outdoor_lover]

November 3.

I appreicate the humor, but to be serious I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we actually rode the 100s into October.

I'm sure we'll still have plenty of days over 100 in October. But we've actually dipped as low as 103 here in the valley for a high in the last few weeks, so I anticipate that we'll have at least a temporary dip in September. Using the last couple of years as a short-term history, I also anticipate that the Monsoon Season will once again extend into September as well. I'm thinking we get a high humidity, cloudy day that prevents us from topping out at 100 at least one day in September, maybe more.

[Jim]

75 to 77 is forecast for where I am residing, Tuesday and Wednesday. Brutal.