CONCLUSION:
I have concluded never to bet my life on the amount of water that I might think I need to carry based on mileages shown on the routes posted here. I will increase the distances by a comfortable factor and build in a reserve.
My experience has been as follows:
BACKGROUND:
On numerous hikes we have been surprised by differences in the mileage for hikes between different makes and models of GPS units and between the “as hiked” and the “as recorded” mileage.

ON HIKES
On hikes when we compare mileages, we are almost always within plus/minus 2% of the average of our GPS readings. We assume the differences are because of the accuracy of the antennae especially with significant switchbacks and canyons.
One hiker actually wears a Garmin Forerunner on his wrist and carries a Garmin Etrex on his pack and gets different readings from the two devices that he personally carries. No – he’s not obsessive/compulsive. The Forerunner records cardiac info that the Etrex does not record and the Etrex does things the Forerunner can’t do.
One hiker had a cellphone case with a flap over his Magellan GPS that he carried on the shoulder strap of his pack. When he cut off the flap, the differences between our recorded mileage became less. But his older Magellan consistently records slightly lower mileage than my newer Garmin.
AFTER HIKES
While hiking, I record the track on my Garmin Etrex Vista C. At the trailhead on finishing the hike, I note the mileage from the Trip Computer.
When I get home, I download to the Garmin Mapsource Software. The Etrex records 500 track points per hike.
Recently on a 16 mile hike (derived from a consensus of GPS readings) with significant switchbacks, my downloaded track showed a distance of 14.6 miles. Almost a 10% reduction in mileage. When I filter the track for 100 trackpoints, the distance decreased to 13.5 miles – over a 15% reduction. I would guess that if the track showed more points, that the difference would decrease.
I also have noticed that when I am in a canyon where I have lost GPS signal, that the track shows a straight line from my last satellite reception until it regains satellite reception. This could be a significant difference.