snow camping in az??

[joshyboy1369]

where in az can i camp in the snow in december? would like it to be a nice isolated area. thanks alot for all your help

[PaleoRob]

We've got snow on the ground here in Page too. Snow level is supposed to drop to 3900 up here.

[Jim]

Well, this storm has been a dud, at least compared to what they were forecasting. The snow totals are lower than forecast, and moisture content is very low. They had been talking about a very large dump with the next round on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but that has been reduced as well. Its probably a 50/50 chance of Snowbowl opening for the Weekend and the Peaks being accessible for winter activities like climbing and camping at that time. Snow may have been wide spread, but its not nearly what they had been calling for.

[chumley]

Disappointing all the way around so far. Even the highest snow totals are below the minimum range forecasted yesterday as are rain totals in the valley. Only the foothills of Carefree/Cave Creek have gotten over an inch, though the west valley has had some fair rain totals. In the east valley, including the Supes, its all under a quarter of an inch.

[azbackpackr]

Well, this storm has been a dud, at least compared to what they were forecasting.

OH, surprise, surprise! :roll:

It seems as though every year the forecasters make these kinds of errors, regularly and frequently. It is as if they are forecasting to sell newspapers, or to make the weatherman's segment sound more interesting on the nightly news show. I sometimes wonder if they are under pressure from supervisors to make it sound bigger than it actually is. After living in Round Valley (Eagar/Springerville) for nine years I have really come to doubt forecasts, especially in late fall and early winter.They rarely seem to get it right, especially on the bigger storms. No one who has lived "on the mountain" for many years believes in forecasts.

This can be dangerous, too, because occasionally there is a really big storm, but since the forecasters may have been crying wolf all season, no one is listening. So it actually becomes a danger to the public. (Same goes for hurricane forecasters.)

[Dschur]

As of this morning the snow had melted off and was .75 inches of rain from what it looks like (haven't checked the raingauge I will when I get home) About an inch of rain has fallen in Payson. Forest Lakes has over a foot of snow on the ground right now according to the web cam there with a snow stick.

[JoelHazelton]

Yeah, it's been a bummer. They were saying 1-2 inches all around Phoenix today, and 3-4 inches in the low-elevation mountain ranges. But, I hear there are a couple more systems moving in the next week or two. I'm just hoping Reavis Falls has water when I go there after Christmas.

[big_load]

It is as if they are forecasting to sell newspapers

It's the same all over. The NY media report every storm like Armageddon. The problem is that it snows 2-3 times a week for 4 1/2 months, and I can take only so much Armageddon. On the plus side, they're very good at predicting when it will start and how much we'll get. I think the deciding factors are more conducive to accurate prediction than in parts of AZ.

[azbackpackr]

My husband always says, "It's snowing in Minneapolis? And they think that's news? Don't they have any actual news to report?"

[PaleoRob]

Mostly melted off in town here, but got some new snow on the Kaibab today (after some melt). Eh, not surprising. Even though I go directly to the NWS, who shouldn't be under all these pressures, they still end up sounding pretty extreme and then PFFT!

[Jim]

I was getting my info from the NWS as well. I think they just aren't very good, or they do like to sensationalize the report for some reason. I wanted to believe since last December we had feet of snow by now and I had already climbed Agassiz. We'll have to wait for the next round to end in 48 hours.

This is the 3rd time this fall they have greatly over estimated storm predictions. I think I'm a doubter now. Infact, I think it will be 80 here in Flag on New Years day. Maybe not.

[PaleoRob]

Infact, I think it will be 80 here in Flag on New Years day.

Is that a prediction then?

[Dschur]

Well we are getting all the moisture in the state I think. Now since last night (Monday) we have almost 2 inches of rain in the rain gauge and it hasn't stopped yet. Still a slow steady rain since sometime last night.

[big_load]

You folks must have jinxed me. We'll end up with 4" or so tonight. It took an extra hour and a half to get home from work.

[Dschur]

AS OF 6 PM MST...FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT RECEIVED 2.4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY WITH A TOTAL OF 12 INCHES ON THE GROUND. GRAND CANYON NORTH RIM MEASURED 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FOR A GRAND TOTAL OF 17 INCHES. SELIGMAN RECEIVED THREE AND HALF INCHES OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD BUT ONLY AN INCH WAS LEFT THIS AFTERNOON. SURPRISINGLY...GREER AND ALPINE HAD LESS THAN A HALF INCH SO FAR. WILLIAMS REPORTED A TOTAL OF 9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. HART PRAIRIE JUST OFF SNOW BOWL ROAD CAME IN WITH 16 INCHES OF SNOW.
STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTS INCLUDE:
FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT .............12 INCHES.
FLAGSTAFF AREA..............10-13 INCHES.
MUNDS PARK AREA..............8-14 INCHES.
WILLIAMS........................9 INCHES.
5 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMS ......13 INCHES.
GRAND CANYON NORTH RIM.........10 INCHES.
NEAR PRESCOTT 6000 FOOT LEVEL...8 INCHES.
CLINTS WELL ....................9 INCHES.
HART PRAIRIE...................16 INCHES.
FOREST LAKES...................13 INCHES.
PARKS...........................9 INCHES.
SELIGMAN........................3 INCHES.
BELLEMONT......................10 INCHES.
SUNSET CRATER...................5 INCHES.
PAGE..........................1-2 INCHES.
JACOB LAKE......................6 INCHES.
STRAWBERRY......................6 INCHES.
WINDOW ROCK.....................5 INCHES.

[chumley]

Those are respectable totals ... but when the forecast was for 15-30 inches above 6000 feet, that's pretty far off. It's nice to see the NWS admit something like "surprisingly, we were totally wrong and Greer barely saw a flurry"

I think meteorologists here in AZ sometimes get a little bit over-excited about storms that come through here. Fact is, there's just not very many weather stations in AZ (especially out of the Phoenix or Tucson metros) and without collecting a lot of data, its difficult to get a computer to generate an accurate model of what will happen. I read something a few months back about an experimental weather reporting system that would get energy directly from tree sap, allowing remote sensors to be placed virtually everywhere (at least one every acre!). After a few decades of collecting that kind of data, they might get the forecast a little bit more accurate.

In the meantime, I'll believe it when I see it!

[joebartels]

Interesting, seems like solar would be more plentiful & efficient to convert. Regardless of how, that would provide some useful data!

[chumley]

It's a very interesting concept. There's a nice article with some illustrations put together by the nerds (term used affectionately) at MIT. Google "MIT Tree Power" to read all about it.

And while it may help with reporting local conditions, until the NWS is launching radiosonde balloons all over the west, northern Mexico, and the eastern Pacific every few hours, there's just not enough data from the various levels of the atmosphere to generate an accurate computer model. Weather forecasts are a bit more complex than the average Channel 17 Weatherbabe make them out to be! Especially in remote mountain areas.

Was this thread about snow camping? ... perhaps the last dozen comments here should be moved to a new thread?

[Jeffshadows]

If one in Tucson so desires to snow camp, it looks like Lemmon and Mica are both due for a pounding this weekend...

[chumley]

Back on snow camping, there's an article in today's paper about a couple of hikers from Tucson who got "lost" near Bear Canyon Lake and were just rescued. They were reported to be "experienced" and had 3-days of food and water with them, along with a variety of camping gear, so it doesn't sound like they would be in grave danger if they took some precautions. (There are some nice restroom buildings that can be used as emergency shelter at the campground!) I'm guessing they got their vehicle stuck somehow. Promontory now has 2 feet of snow, which could make driving those 10-12 miles on FR 300 basically impossible for all but the most ridiculously jacked-up trucks.

Seriously though ... if you consider yourself an experienced hiker and you head into the forest when the weather forecast has called for a major winter storm for about a week now, you should be charged for the SAR just like under the "stupid motorist" law.

[Jeffshadows]

Back on snow camping, there's an article in today's paper about a couple of hikers from Tucson who got "lost" near Bear Canyon Lake and were just rescued. They were reported to be "experienced" and had 3-days of food and water with them, along with a variety of camping gear, so it doesn't sound like they would be in grave danger if they took some precautions. (There are some nice restroom buildings that can be used as emergency shelter at the campground!) I'm guessing they got their vehicle stuck somehow. Promontory now has 2 feet of snow, which could make driving those 10-12 miles on FR 300 basically impossible for all but the most ridiculously jacked-up trucks.

Seriously though ... if you consider yourself an experienced hiker and you head into the forest when the weather forecast has called for a major winter storm for about a week now, you should be charged for the SAR just like under the "stupid motorist" law.

Yes, they should have been. I'm all for giving people the benefit of the doubt, but there's more to this story than the media is reporting...I'll try to confirm what I heard and post it up.