Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[dysfunction]

At least someone's getting something.. I chatted with the ranger at Sag E the other day and was informed that even Manning is dry. So much for my winter plans.

[chumley]

Here's another ... I'm surprised how green the aspens still look. The Sunrise webcam shows the aspens are basically at their golden peak right now.

[big_load]

We all know the NWS suffers from premature precipitation forecasts

Not just in AZ. They seem to live in dread of not predicting a precipitation event, especially a storm, although I can't blame them because of what might be at stake. I'd like to see the relative frequency of false positives vs. false negatives nationwide. It would be even more interesting to see how that breakdown differs between rain and snow.

[chumley]

True indeed. Just look at hurricane forecasts these days. This year has been an absolute dud in the Atlantic basin (believed to be due to El Nino). BUT ... at least three times so far the NHC has named a storm and issued warnings for what never amounted to more than a cluster of thunderstorms. Its easy to say that there are more hurricanes now than there used to be because we now declare systems to be "tropical storms" ... and give them a name, and accompanying Weather Channel graphics and live reports ... Of course there's more storms! 40mph winds and some rain wasn't often classified as a tropical storm in past decades.

It is precisely this "cry wolf" forecasting that will kill people when big storms actually do occur. (Snow, ice, tornado, hurricane, etc. all qualify)

[Jim]

The NWS is predicting a winter storm for elevations above 5,000' in the Flagstaff area. They appear to be suffering from premature prediction already. I wonder if we'll even get anything, let alone an amount close to what they will predict.

[azbackpackr]

We have scattered snow showers predicted on Wed. I'm going hiking anyway.

[dysfunction]

Cool, I may actually need boots to collect my christmas tree.

[Ckzona]

looks to me like the whole state above 6000ft is supposed to get 3-6 inches. I am pretty confident this will happen since all weather stations are saying first major storm of the year.

[big_load]

I am pretty confident this will happen since all weather stations are saying first major storm of the year.

It's just that nobody wants to be the one who didn't predict it. The perceived shame in missing a storm is apparently far greater than that of predicting one that doesn't happen.

[Jim]

I am pretty confident this will happen since all weather stations are saying first major storm of the year.

I predict a trace to 1 inch for elevations above 6000' and below 10,000'. There could be up to 2 inches along the Rim in a strong burst. If they predict 3 to 6 inches, you can toss out the likelihood of any real accumulation. Over 10,000' there may be something, but they are so consistently wrong with forecast amounts, and especially bad for early storms, that I have virtually no confidence in their predicting abilities. I will go so far as to suggest that this cold front could be completely dry and be little more than mostly cloud conditions.

[Ckzona]

Well i hope they prove you wrong Jhodlof. Arizona needs some precipitation.

[hippiepunkpirate]

I'm gonna bet if it does precipitate, it's gonna be a cold rain rather than snow.

[azbackpackr]

It's just that nobody wants to be the one who didn't predict it. The perceived shame in missing a storm is apparently far greater than that of predicting one that doesn't happen.

Well put, and I also agree with jhodlof that it's likely to be mostly dry. We are supposed to get high winds tomorrow (Tues) with gusts to 48 mph. Now THAT I do believe, because it happens frequently!

Anyway, with only 1-3 inches accumulation, IF it happens, it still would not be enough to dust off my xc skis.

[PaleoRob]

They even think it is going to snow up here in Page on Wednesday. I don't think we've ever had an October snow up here, at least since I've been living here. On the other hand, it is supposed to be El Nino...

[Dschur]

They said the snow level could be at 3000 ft and Payson is being predicted for snow....

[chumley]

I'm with jhodlof ... I'll believe it when I see it. This storm system is extremely unusual for October, and the computer models have no idea how to handle it. With that said, the forecast seems to favor the northeast portion of the state for precipitation. I am personally looking forward to the 20-30 degree drop in temperatures from tues to wed. NWS says only 3 times has the PHX temp dropped more than 20 degrees on consecutive days in October. The forecast is currently calling for 89 to 65, which is pretty impressive.

[joebartels]

I'll go with two feet.

Similar scenario in April years ago stranded hikers out at Reavis. We know the cold is coming, there's a better than usual chance the moisture will just tag along.

[azbackpackr]

Well, two feet of snow would be just dandy! I drive a school bus, but they never have snow days in my district. Instead, they have what they call "delayed start" where they hope it will melt off by 10 a.m. and then they send us out, even if it hasn't melted off. At least that way the plows have had a chance to get to most of the streets. As far as I know they never use a full snow day here in Round Valley.

When I first started driving for them, although I had driven a school bus for 4 years in Tucson, I had never driven a bus, nor any other vehicle, in the snow! They didn't ask me about it at the job interview. Therefore, the first day it snowed, I appeared in my boss's office, saying, "Uh, boss, just thought you'd like to know I've never driven in the snow before." He said, "Well, I assumed you hadn't driven a bus in the snow." I said, "Yeah, but you didn't assume I had never driven any kind of vehicle in the snow, did you?" Whereupon I received all sorts of advice from my fellow drivers, and later on, even from the students.

When I got out there on my run I was going VERY slowly. I had all ages on that morning run, K-12. One of the older kids shouted out, "Hey, Bus Driver, why are you going so slow? Haven't you ever driven in the snow before?" Everyone laughed until I said, "NO! I have never driven in the snow before at all, not even in a car!" Then there was dead silence on the bus. Everyone was scared. Awwww... So then this 8th grade girl who was one of the more outspoken kids, came up to sit in the front. She was going to "teach" me how to drive in the snow! She proceeded to give me all sorts of "helpful" advice.

It was funny. The back wheels only side-slipped once, but I was going only about 5 mph, pulling out of a stop sign. It all turned out ok. My route was only in town, and not much is going to happen going 15 mph in Eagar.

[writelots]

I'm hiking into the GC this weekend, with a good friend who hates the snow, hates the cold and has a combative relationship with the canyon itself. I figure her energy probably created this storm ;)

[hippiepunkpirate]

I'm hiking into the GC this weekend, with a good friend who hates the snow, hates the cold and has a combative relationship with the canyon itself. I figure her energy probably created this storm ;)

Well, if the jhodlof prediction is true, enjoy the nice weather! Otherwise, be careful down in there.