Atmosphere Comparison

[Jim]

The endless chatter of weather.

[azbackpackr]

Oh, but it turned out to be the perfect spring day!

[Jim]

It was. It was.

[chumley]

Rain and snow for Memorial Day? Ok, it's a little ahead of Memorial Day, but it looks like there's an unusually cold and wet* May storm heading across the state this week, with another possible this weekend. Unfortunately, the next two days will be crazy windy leading up to it, so things will probably be really dry before humidity and moisture help much. And there's the threat for thunderstorms too, which isn't good news for a dry forest.

* Unusually wet in May is defined as anything less than 100% sunny.

[Jim]

I'm not thrilled with it. Last night, I was watching that Atlanta based cable channel which claims to be about weather but is largely about the southeast and reality TV. Anyway, as they from time to time do, they briefly touched on non-southeast conditions and non-tornado or human interest based reports and spoke about the system which is coming into the west. If what they said is correct, then this week's storm might be the last of the unending winter season, and we may finally get high pressure to build in and give the state's high altitude locations some extended periods of nice weather. Reasonable mid-level and low elevation locations may see temps in the 70s and 80s this week. We're looking at 40s! The Sierra will pick up more snow, something they hardly need as parts are still over 200% of the normal current snowpack, and still well above the normal maximum for the year.

It's funny that the last La Nina in 2008 had a snowy and rainy Memorial Day weekend. I hope that this is the last of it, and we finally warm up in to at least the higher 70s. We are actually having what is probably a normal or decent spring in the Flagstaff area, I just don't like cool, windy springs too much. Having a "warm day" in the middle to upper 60s, or very low 70s in mid-May is not my idea of a warm spring day. I do belong at lower elevation. I suppose, that when you've been getting into the high 90s, a day in the 70s is a really nice thing. I'd like to think like that again.

[chumley]

QPF looks to be about .60 in FLG Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels dropping to 6500ft. That would be an impressive storm for mid-May! The record for May 18th is only .45", from all the way back in 1915. The record low highs for the 18th and 19th are also borderline in jeopardy. Chilly. : rein :

[Jim]

If you were trying to seduce a lover, with that kind of talk, you would be making them sick. You should be talking about 80 degree warmth, sun, light winds, and fantastic weather. This was supposed to be a spring with above normal temps, and below normal precipitation. What gives? OK, so we have been below normal on precip, and this won't really change that, but we have hardly been above normal for temps. With the way they were talking, I was hoping for close to 80 by now.

Actually, the last 30 days have been a huge disappointment. I had thought of taking advantage of my free time in June to go to either the San Jauns, the New Mexico Sangres, or the LaSals, but they have had snow, and pretty deep snow this last month. Well, the NM Sangres haven't, but I lost interest in them real fast as they look dull. But the San Juans and LaSals have picked up quite a bit. I know that is good and all, and that June is still early for mountains above 12,000', but geeze, when will spring really get here? I'd really love to go to California and the Sierra, but I think this is not going to be a banner year for summer summits over there. Not before early July, and maybe not even mid-July the way things are going. Maybe I'll get a gainful job and not really care so much?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

Pretty wet there (5/17) in the forecast for the next few days. I guess if we're going to get this, town getting around 1/2 inch or so would be nice. Can you tell it's the rainy season in South Dakota?

[Jim]

Light rain up here. Don't know how long it will continue, but it looks to be for a while. Chilly, too.

[hippiepunkpirate]

I feel like I'm in the Pacific Northwest

[Jim]

I know what you mean, and I wanted to live in the southwest.
We've had 4/10ths out of this so far. If we can squeeze another tenth or more from it, it will be a pretty decent mid-May rain/snow event. At least things will green up nicely (if it ever warms up, and fire danger should be reduced for a while. So far the high up here appears to be 39 degrees.

I just realized I shot us in the foot when I renamed the thread, "warm spring a-rising". I should have named it, "cold spring", then we would have had above normal warmth.

[hippiepunkpirate]

That's funny, this morning I was thinking something similar. Well, if this results in greener grass, prettier flowers, and less fire destruction, that will make it worthwhile for me to have to deliver pizzas in this crap tonight.

[chumley]

Snowbowl reported 6" of snow as of 3pm today. I'm assuming that's at 9,300ft since I doubt they ran a lift or a snowmobile to measure at midway or the top.

[Jim]

Yup, in a state known for 115 degree heat and saguaro cacti, we had snow and temps in the 30s all day. It's 32 and snowing right now, and we set a new daily precipitation record for Flagstaff of 47/100ths. It was mostly rain. Miserable as this is, we're getting some pretty much always needed moisture, so it's still a plus, I guess. So long as this is the last of it. :-({|=

[chumley]

So long as this is the last of it. :-({|=

Looks like there's a little bump in the road...

EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS PROJECT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BRUSHING THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A WEAKER AND WARMER SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[Jim]

Looks like we got 65/100ths of an inch of rain yesterday. Pretty good for mid May. This is very reminiscent of the Memorial Day 2008 storm. Interestingly, of the 4 previous entire summers when I lived in Flagstaff, only 2008 had a normal monsoon start at the end of June. Both 2007 and 2010 were late and in mid-July, and 2009 had a very wet May but a failure of the monsoon that year. Maybe the monsoon won't be late this year?

[hippiepunkpirate]

This is very reminiscent of the Memorial Day 2008 storm.

I was reminded of that storm as well. My significant other and I had a camping trip planned, and when we woke up to a dusting of snow we were quite surprised, still went camping though. Resulted in one of my first HAZ triplogs as a matter of fact.

[Jim]

I remember that weekend. It was pretty miserable, but June was really green compared to 2007. Another "good" thing about this storm: I'm not doing Elden constantly. If you can call that good. Elden will be fresh the next time I hike it.

[Jim]

The lousy, cold, and largely overcast and humid weather continues up here. Temps are flat and only in the high 50s at this time, and in an insult to injury, checking the temps around the state reveals that most places are in the 80s. The up side, it isn't windy right now. Oh, and between a small storm earlier in the month and the series of rain and snow this week, we've had 0.87" for May, which is more than the monthly normal of 0.8". Not bad, very 2008 like.

[joebartels]

Are there statistics for wind?
Seems like this has been the windiest month ever in the valley. Bad news for bikers yet most appreciated in relieving the May gnats!

wind stats page

[Jim]

Which is weird, because this year doesn't seem as bad. Actually, compared to last April and May, we haven't had the many, many I-40 closures due to the wind, so it probably isn't as bad this year as it was in 2010. For Flagstaff, I should say. Tucson, and SE AZ have had lots and lots of red flag days, mostly wind related (not just dryness).

Joe complaining about the wind? What next?

I haven't seen much about the wind down in the Valley. Just this:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/weatherImage.php?num=1

The NWS might put together a weather summary for May that talks about the wind.

[Jim]

Looking back over May's temps so far, and judging by the highs, it looks like Flagstaff will come in below normal/ colder than normal. Unless we have a sudden uptick, it seems certain. Over the last 10 days, every single day has been below normal, some up to 25 degrees below normal. Though we are slightly wetter than normal, that is more or less right on par. The NWS has backed off a bit on the weekend optimism, and now we are only forecast to be in the mid sixties Sunday and Monday. Low 70s are forecast for the days between now and then, but we'll see. 70 is the mean for today, we hit 63. I guess desert folk are loving these mild temps. Ah, the desert...