Weather in the Supes

[Crocodile Ryan]

Was thinking about an overnighter next weekend in the Supes, was wondering if anyone has been out there recently, just curious as to how chilly its been getting

was thinking of reavis ranch via 109S

[nonot]

I would recommend you should prepare for a freeze at night, I'm not sure how much below freezing though.

[rygo72]

Ya should be a bit cold H 55 L 25. Ill be up there next weekend as well, but will be connecting Rogers Canyon to Reavis 109. Have fun!!

[chumley]

A good start is that the temperature will be 3.5°F lower with every 1000ft of elevation gain. If you use the readings in Chandler or Mesa as a baseline you will get a more accurate guess as the Phoenix readings vary much more due to the urban heat island effect at Sky Harbor.

Many other factors can cause differences. Sometimes its actually colder in the valleys than it is on the peaks due to what is referred to as an inversion layer.

Mostly, daytime temperatures while hiking at this time of year are not the problem, its planning for how cold it will be overnight. The coldest nights are clear and calm. Nights where it's cloudy, or if there's a breeze, can help keep the temperatures up, often by as much as 10-15 degrees.

There are remote sensing weather stations in the area that you can find current and historical data (google it). They are located at Saguaro Lake, Roosevelt Dam, Apache Junction, Fish Creek, Superior, and Pinal Creek. Pay attention to the elevation of the weather sensor and make sure to relate that information to where you will be.

More specifically, if by "next weekend" you meant 1/19-20, there's a very cold system forecast to move into Arizona tomorrow which should drop low temperatures to near freezing in the valley. Depending on where in the Supes you head, the overnights might be in the low 20s.

[te_wa]

camping close to Reavis creek will also drop the temps, and the little valley up there doesnt see sunlight until 9 am or so this time of year.
The past few weekends the weather lows have hovered in the 33-35° range, as witnessed in places such as Boulder, E. Boulder, and La Barge canyons. I would expect Reavis to be closer to ~25° I hope that helps, it probably doesnt. Looking at your Avatar you might not have any problems. Tell the girlfriend it will be in the low 40's. Works every time... (for a minute!)

Chumley do you want to be our official HAZ weatherman?
(if so, you can expect a PM from me every Friday nite )

[joebartels]

Low 20's does seem likely with the low front moving in.

There's over 8,100 weather stations with long term data logged in HAZ. (one of the servers worked two weeks solid populating the data)
Goto Reavis 109 South at http://hikearizona.com/decoder.php?ZTN=270

Click on "HAZ Factor"
The corresponding data is calculated based on the elevation variance of the weather station elevation verse the trailhead. The nearest weather station is already picked with the next closest 50 stations in the dropdown list.

It spits out
Roosevelt H52 / L30
Superior H55 / L38
Tortilla Flat H57 / L29

The Ranch is higher then the trailhead so it will be colder. The high point is easily figured looking at the first line stating
Est temps (using ***) for Trailhead: 4818 ft Minus 5.9 ° for highest point

Not as aggressive as the 3.5 factor as the reading just seemed too out of whack. Could add an option for the user to adjust that on the fly...

Rain data will be added when I have time.

[djui5]

I agree with Joe, mid to low 20's. I live in AJ and it's been around 32-35 degrees in the mornings. Wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see it 5-10 degrees less back there.

[chumley]

Thanks te-wa, but I'm no meteorologist. It's just another side-interest of mine. I read a lot and am quite certain I could out-forecast Dave Munsey if provided half the data he gets.

Information is knowledge ... and for that, I thank Joe for the HAZ Factor data.... Now if only we could get the stations to populate on the dynamic HAZ topo maps, that would be cool. I like to search for them when I'm out and about. (A strange sort of geo-caching?) I've found that the published coordinates are often not where the weather station is. Oh, and I like to find stream flow gauges too. And fire towers, and ...

On another weather-nerd note, I saw recently that some new GPS units have the ability to receive XM/Sirius satellite weather and show live current radar on your GPS. Now that could prove valuable during the monsoon!

[Crocodile Ryan]

Thats about what i was thinking,

20's arent so bad, Ive been in a lot worse before - in fact my last hike out there was when the big storm hit, and the whole area was covered in 3-6ft of snow!

The HAZ Factor, is really cool, I havent been on the site as much as I used to, when did that get put in?

[joebartels]

It's been around for a couple years, evolving little by little. There's some seriously useful data concepts to be had once enough GPS data floods the system then intertwined with Al's quasi article.

Chumley I added a weather station search for you. You will see the search link in the lower left corner. You're right about the published coordinates. Apparently there's been an itty bitty issue in the Los Angeles area. They're all located in the ocean or on Pendleton base.

[te_wa]

well I was just using the HAZ factor for the Dogie Trail and it says the nearest weather station is Grand Canyon North Rim at 17 miles. Then lists Sedona at 42 miles. Somethin fishy here...

[joebartels]

thx
got it, then noticed and adjusted another actual North Rim entry
keep 'em comin'

I'm not sure about the "Oak Creek" on the Highline off Horton, but there is an Oak Creek Canyon.
I'll throw in the elevation to make 'em a little easier to evaluate proper location.
Probably take some time to spot 'em all.

[chumley]

You're right about the published coordinates. Apparently there's been an itty bitty issue...

That's what makes finding them fun! There's usually some logic to where they're placed, so starting with the approximate coordinates and studying the topo map for logical spots in the general area is always a good basis for some exploring.