Missing hiker in Mazatzals - gpsjoe (Joe Domin)

[Dschur]

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Searched Routes

Southern Ravines Map

Forecast Mormon Grove & Peeley

Crews looking for missing hiker
By Alexis Bechman

November 16, 2010
Tonto Rim Search and Rescue volunteers and Gila County Sheriff officers are currently searching for an overdue hiker.

The man, whose name has not been released, was last heard from nine days ago and is believed to be hiking near the Mt. Peeley trail or Sheep Mountain, off Forest Road 201, southwest of Payson.

The Gila County Sheriff’s Office first received a call that the man was overdue Monday, Nov. 15 about 9 p.m.

“The hiker has not been heard from since Nov. 7 and frequents the Mazatzal Mountain Wilderness area,” according to a press release from the sheriff’s office.

The missing hiker’s vehicle was located at the Mt. Peeley trailhead.



Six TRSAR volunteers are currently searching the ground. Earlier Tuesday, a Department of Public Safety Ranger helicopter did an aerial search of the area, but found no signs of the man

[imike]

The tenacity and determination represented for Joe opens up the very real possibility that he made the peak, and took off for an easier trail intersection return... south side? May or may not have been close to his prior bail out...

In the dark is it possible to overshoot that south side trail and continue down drainage, or is it a nice open trail area? GPS working would eliminate that possibility, if it were checked. Sounded like he had loaded those routes.

[thebrayer]

Just for everyone's info. Today I hiked from the end of FR 25A up the Cornucopia TR86 to TR 260 and up and over the hill to Thicket Springs TR95 North on that trail to Cronucopia TR86 and back down to my ATV at the 25A road. No sign but then there's been a lot of rain that have wiped out all tracks new or old.

[nonot]

Thanks thebrayer, that is an important trail in the area that needed to be searched.

What this means is what remains - marked trail wise, within 3 miles of the peak is:
No one has done a search of parts of Sheep Creek Trail #88 beyond how far topohiker went.
No one has hiked the Mazzie Divide Trail much past the Sheep ridgeline turnoff, with the intentions of searching for Joe. While people have hiked it, they were not looking for any signs of Joe.
Copper Camp #87 has not been searched.

If you consider roads and unsigned trails:
No one has walked in via the East Fork Sycamore Rd route to Cornocopia.
No one has searched FR201A
Various unsigned "trails" that branch off FR201 to high points in the area.

Most of these, with the exception of the Mazzie Divide Trail and perhaps one or two of the unsigned trails near Peeley TH, seem very unlikely.

[nonot]

Some people were speculating on my comments made on Sunday. I look at the situation as follows:

Chance Joe did not hike Sheep Mtn: 25%.
Reasoning: Hiking alone, you can easily change plans. Had Joe arrived to the TH late or for another reason, he could have done something else.
Where to search: If Joe did not hike Sheep Mtn, hiking the other trail/road/loops in the area seems most likely.
Possibility of finding Joe: Initially: Medium. Based on the trails we know have been hiked since Joe went missing, LOW (.01)

Chance Joe did hike Sheep Mtn: 75%
Reasoning: Given his trip planner, the trails that Joe seems to have had on his GPS, and the fact that his friends knew he wanted to hike it, it seems likely this was Joe's destination
Where to search:

Option A: The ridgeline route.
Probability of finding Joe: Initially: High, Now: Given the numbers of people that have hiked the ridgeline, LOW (.01)

Option B: Southern Drainages off Sheep Mtn
Probability of finding Joe: Given he had previously attempted this and did not make it back to his truck until the next morning it seems unlikely he would repeat this route. Furthermore, assuming that SAR had supposedly searched this area intensely on Saturday, LOW(.01)

Option C: Northern drainages/Base of cliffs north of Sheep Mtn ridgeline
Probability of finding Joe: Past records showed that Joe would attempt to hike at night, rather than stop and build a fire. This suggests navigation in the dark. Furthermore, based on his past attempts, I do not believe Joe had the athletic ability at his age to reach the Peak and back to the TH before it would get dark. If Joe tried to hike back in the dark he could have slipped off the ridge, tripped, or otherwise had a problem. On the south side, it looks like you'd end up getting banged up but survive. Furthermore see comments on SAR searching southern drainages. On the north side, it looks like you'd fall over a cliff. Assuming SAR did not spend much time looking on the north side, my understanding is that this area is largely un-searched and thick with brush. LOW+ (.05).

Option C: Off the south-West Ridge
Probability of finding Joe: Very unlikely as it is the wrong way from the TH. (.003)

Therefore my statements on Sunday that I was intending to search the north side of the Mtn (Option B) was because I thought the probability was the highest.

Understanding what SAR did and did not search, and the number of eyes they had on the areas they did search, may change my perception.

[tibber]

Depending on the roads, I have a Mazda Tribute (largest of the small SUVs) and I can take people in on Saturday. If you're familiar with the road(s) we need to take and as long as you think my high-clearance vehicle can make it and we have good weather (which looks good for now), I will be happy to get you to whatever TH needed.

[imike]

So, SAR searched the south side ridges and drainages? Would be very interesting to get their covered routes... but even then... it is all speculation. From here on it is about doing... walking and rewalking all areas until there is resolution.

[nonot]

imike, I cannot provide definite information about anything SAR did. My assumption of this was based upon certain statements provided by others, and my deductions from those statements.

[nonot]

The superstitions:
Your Red route outlines one of the most hellish, nightmarish hikes anyone could possibly concoct on the face of the Earth. Now, if you cut off the first half, and look at the area just to the south/west of the Mazzie Divide Trail (which is in yellow on your map), it does appear to be a hikeable, though unlikely, route full of heavy brush.

Your Pink route indicates (basically) Thicket Trail and Sheep Creek Trail combined with a steep bushwhack south down from the peak. While I would never attempt this, I will not go so far as to say it could not have been attempted by Joe. I would personally consider this steep South bailout option less likely than west/southwest ridge descent, or a east/southeast bailout descent. Mainly due to the steepness.

Thank you for providing a fresh look at the situation.

[Trishness]

No Not,

I had questioned people (Via PM) if Joe may have attempted to bail out on on the north side of that ridgeline and it was a resounding "probably not". But I'm not sure how much of that area north was canvassed by SAR. My feeling is if this area has not been searched thoroughly, it should be. He may have had a medical emergency that caused him to slip and/or fall off that north side. There's just something that's telling me we need to look there.

Trish

[nonot]

Trish,

I don't know if I was unclear, but I think it is impossible that Joe would have voluntarily bailed out to the north, my statement that I intended to search that side of the mountain on Sunday was based on the probability he may have fell off.

[Sredfield]

I'm questioning the "bail out" idea, that is, the assumption that he took a route back that is radically different from how he got out there. I"ll defer to those who've hiked out to Sheep Mtn, but from the maps, the likely route would be from a point on the Divide Trail where it hooks south, then north, below and to the west of the Peeley summit. Also, if he hiked out there, he had the GPS track to follow back, rather than taking off on a new route. This route back to a known trail is fairly level, where any other involves steep slope and more unknown terrain. Once at Thicket Spring it's a haul up to the TH.

Does anyone know how well SAR searched the slopes below the ridgeline? There appears to be some very steep areas on both sides along the ridgeline.

[Grasshopper]

tkknc wrote:Is there a GPS track for the previous bailout “He exited the ridgeline at peak 6834 close to nightfall and intermittently moved down the side of the mtn in sections throughout the entire night (probably to keep warm). He got back to his car at 10 AM the following day.”?


Yes, you are reading my mind.. I will post this 11/16/09 one on the HAZ website where the MAIN MAP is located so it will have available access to all.. Also I will try to peg the beginning Peak exit waypoint and the end where he joined up with the Thicket Spring TR95 on this Nov'09 bailout overnight push..

Here it all is (the key hike tracks- Parts 1, 2, and 3 and the last two listed waypoints (in the waypoints listing) are the "key" ones to note) for his 11/16/09 BAILOUT HIKE: http://hikearizona.com/location_g.php?QX=125

For 2 Key waypoints noted above:
Exit @ Pk6834- Bailout to TR95= N33.993859 W-111.50095
Arrive-TR95 fm B/Out Route = N33.990301 W-111.488441

[Trishness]

Trish,

I don't know if I was unclear, but I think it is impossible that Joe would have voluntarily bailed out to the north, my statement that I intended to search that side of the mountain on Sunday was based on the probability he may have fell off.

You were not unclear. When I raised that original question about bailing out to the north, everyone said NO, he would not bail out on that north side, he would have bailed out on one of the south drainages to Thicket Spring or somewhere to the south where he could get to Thicket Trail and back. I concur with you that there may have been some unforeseen medical issue and he may have become disoriented and fell off the north side.

Trish

[BobP]

The comment appears in my youtube of Sheep Mtn.


Thank from Joe's family in Virginia to all of those who are working so diligently to find Uncle Joe. All that you are giving-your time, your expertise, your prayers-are very much appreciated. Thank you for posting this video. It has been hard for us to conceptualize what you all are going through. This truly gives us an idea of the monumental task that you all are enduring. May God direct your steps and keep you all safe.

[mazatzal]

Eric and Nonot both make excellent suggestions that I agree with. I think we need to go out and search the southeast ridges and gullies. We may also need some super strong hikers to search the north side. This would be a long trek and require extreme endurance. If you went in by the trails and then up it is a 20+ mile day with additional off trail. We could take sheep trail to the saddle above McFarland Canyon and then ascend Sheep Mtn. This is an extreme day hike though. As stated previously, searching the southeast side is also valuable and much more doable. This was our alternative objective on Friday but we opted to do the ridge due to knowledge about Joe's previous attempts.

[Grasshopper]

We may also need some super strong hikers to search the north side. This would be a long trek and require extreme endurance. If you went in by the trails and then up it is a 20+ mile day with additional off trail.

Another possibility for a still rugged but much shorter hiking mileage search in this north section is for someone with "mountaineering/rope climbing expertise" to soon step-up to lead and organize a group 2 day mountaineering backpack trip here.. http://www.hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=166507 taking the same route that our HAZ search team took on Fri-11/19 (see Liz's GPS Default Route in the Sheep Mtn Hike Description).

Eric and Nonot both make excellent suggestions that I agree with. I think we need to go out and search the southeast ridges and gullies.

As stated previously, searching the southeast side is also valuable and much more doable.

I totally agree with this for a late this week or hopefully next week plan for the strong non mountaineering types who have a high tolerance for pain.. who can step-up to lead and organize this? My thoughts= working in ~westward through the bush from in-between the 2 key waypoint coordinates that Eric posted for that ridge exit down from Sheep Mtn Summit to the 2 key waypoints that I just posted on this thread for where GPSjoe did that ridge-line "bailout" hike on 11/16/09.. the group would spread out between the 2 key waypoints located on the Thicket Spring TR95 and start inward toward Sheep Mtn/Ridgeline concentrating on washes/drainages/ridges, etc.; If you look closely at my just posted GPSjoe 11/16/09 bailout hike, you will see that he headed down and straight for a major drainage to attempt to gain the Thicket Spring TR95 which he did accomplish at ~8:30am on 11/17);

This way we have two different skill sets, heavy duty off-trail hiking and mountaineering doing what they can do best and most important covering these "two key risk areas" that may now hold our GPSjoe.

[Vaporman]

Another possibility for a still rugged but shorter hiking mileage search in this north section is[/b] for someone with "mountaineering/rope climbing expertise" to soon volunteer to lead and organize a group 2 day mountaineering backpack trip here..

I'm more feeling we should hit the SE side first, but this also a good area to check out. As a canyoneer and sometimes rock climber, I have a set of ascenders and a couple 200ft ropes and know how to build solid anchors to descend & ascend back up the rope but it goes without saying that that would be time consuming & tedious work. Prob start by peering over the edge and scanning with binoculars... After hauling all the gear in there you'd at least want to spend 2-3 days to make it worth the effort. Are there places to pitch a tent on Sheep Mt? IMO if he is on the northside, I would guess he went over the edge along the ridgeline as opposed to off of Sheep Mt... Just got to hope it isn't already currently covered in snow and shaded from the sun.

Did SAR have a technical crew check the northside at all?

[Grasshopper]

Good morning folks, I'm one of the TRSAR rescuers that participated in the search for your friend / fellow hiker Joe, I just wanted to drop in and give all of you my warmest regards. As your search efforts continue, please feel free to keep me posted as to when your group/s will be in the area, perhaps I will get out there with some of you if I'm not called out. As always, please be extremely careful.

Sincerely.

Ernest

Please don't forget Ernest's generous offer to help if called upon and not "on call"..

[Grasshopper]

I just wish the Maricopia Sheriff Dept-Mountain Rescue- Operations Chief would consider posting his 4th here to help clarify and confirm or deny what is best for us (HAZ and AZH) to proceed from here..

Dave Bremson with CAMRA/MCSO Mtn. Rescue has been in a Search Management class all weekend thru Mon. I am sure he will get back to you as soon as he can.
Thx
Ed

Thanks Ed- David's advise will be appreciated by us all.

I just wanted to bring this most important post from Ed back up to the front of this thread as of this 12:55am on Tues-11/23. We have posted so many unanswered questions over the past few days that David Bremson-Operations Chief,WEMT-Mountain Rescue can help answer, clarify, and hopefully give us some guidance from this point on. We do hope to hear back from him soon.

[juliachaos]

time consuming & tedious work. Prob start by peering over the edge and scanning with binoculars

I agree it would be very tedious. Checking out the area through binoculars would be a better idea, if done from another area. The brush is too thick to look directly down from any area.

Are there places to pitch a tent on Sheep Mt?

Yes, the top of Sheep is pretty big and flat. Would only need a bit of clearing of some of the broken brush up there.

IMO if he is on the northside, I would guess he went over the edge along the ridgeline as opposed to off of Sheep Mt...

Agreed. Sheep itself looks very safe; no areas where you'd be forced onto a steep wall. There are many areas along the ridgeline that one could fall if one decided to go that way. However, the manzanita is so thick that you probably wouldn't travel far. I'm of the opinion that the SE ridge/drainage areas would be the most likely places to find Joe, especially because he has used them for bailing before. Pushing through the thick brush at night could result in falling down a rock wall that isn't easily seen in the dark. I agree that the SE sections should be concentrated on first.