Missing hiker in Mazatzals - gpsjoe (Joe Domin)

[Dschur]

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If you go out, please track your hike on a GPS and post it for the benefit of future searches. Simply post it upon return. (if you need help ask the webmaster) Hike Arizona will see that it gets linked to a master map. If you have multiple variations in your group, please post all tracks. As more info is posted the map will evolve and the overlaps will be removed.

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Forecast Mormon Grove & Peeley

Crews looking for missing hiker
By Alexis Bechman

November 16, 2010
Tonto Rim Search and Rescue volunteers and Gila County Sheriff officers are currently searching for an overdue hiker.

The man, whose name has not been released, was last heard from nine days ago and is believed to be hiking near the Mt. Peeley trail or Sheep Mountain, off Forest Road 201, southwest of Payson.

The Gila County Sheriff’s Office first received a call that the man was overdue Monday, Nov. 15 about 9 p.m.

“The hiker has not been heard from since Nov. 7 and frequents the Mazatzal Mountain Wilderness area,” according to a press release from the sheriff’s office.

The missing hiker’s vehicle was located at the Mt. Peeley trailhead.



Six TRSAR volunteers are currently searching the ground. Earlier Tuesday, a Department of Public Safety Ranger helicopter did an aerial search of the area, but found no signs of the man

[Dschur]

Someone mentioned a cabin to me that was "in the area" (sheep seep/88?) but that it would take some pretty strong hikers to reach it and get back in a day. I can't seem to find it on the map. Joe did enjoy exploring cabins. Thoughts? Does anyone know which cabin it could be?

I believe I remember hearing during the Willow Fire there was a cabin up there that was burned up.... Can't find anything on it for sure but was in the Payson Roundup....

[ssk44]

that'll make us push twice as hard to check those drainages & ridges below that point!

Don't assume that he wouldn't just skirt around the south side of peak 6,910 to hook up with the primary ridgeline route to Thicket Spring. Bailing straight south along gullies has no logic behind it. It makes for a longer return hike and ends up in a more confusing area. Look at the topography. Why would a logical man like Joe Domin, who lives and breathes GPS and topo, take a less direct route unless cliffs blocked the primary route? I believe that all options should be considered, however start with what is most logical and work the more obscure stuff if needed. This is a NASTY place to hike. These manzanita-chocked slopes will suck your energy like a vacuum. Use your energy wisely or you'll be blown before you ever get stated. Just properly exploring the primary ridgeline route, including the dense vegetation below drop areas and rock faces will be a long battle in itself. Don't underestimate this place...


Eric

[Twoseeking]

I looked at the ravine map and yes, I am referring to ravine #4. I saw bear scat at one location, between the saddle and the ridge, not very far from Joe's Nov 5th track. Not fresh, but also not yet deteriorated.

[te_wa]

I believe I remember hearing during the Willow Fire there was a cabin up there that was burned up.... Can't find anything on it for sure but was in the Payson Roundup....

dawn, that was likely "club cabin" and it was far from the area that Joe would have been in.
i think lizard did a write-up on that one.

[ssk44]

IMPORTANT

http://hikearizona.com/photo.php?ZIP=167183 (West/southwest slope of peak 6,910 with notes and comments)

[topohiker]

There's also the Sheep Creek Cabin which is 2.75 miles (As the crow flies) west of the Sheep MNT peak. It's near the intersection of the Sheep creek and the Sears trails.It's about 1,500 freet off-trail in a canyon.
I don't know if it's still standing or not.

[SuperstitionGuy]

Although almost half way around the world from you I am following your posts every day and wish you all well in this search.

One thing I would recommend is that you have on standby a heavy duty four wheel drive vehicle with a winch in case any of you have trouble on that road in or out of that trailhead. Assuming of course that with wet weather and much traffic this road will become a mud bogging, rutted nightmare and if the ground freezes it won't be much fun to drive either!

My best wishes to all of you and please be safe out there!

[suzaz]

I have been reminded via PM that many missing folks turn up close to their vehicles (500 yards or so) but significantly off route most likely in an attempt to take a shortcut. This would be another excellent option for folks to consider searching.

I have also heard that NONE of the drainages/ravines have been completely searched, it is more probable that we could say 10% searched.

Hope this helps.

[Vaporman]

@ ssk44 Yea, I don't doubt for one second that hiking that southern slope will be very taxing & time consuming but it's nice to get some encouraging news that we'll be looking in the most promising area.

[Sredfield]

I have been reminded via PM that many missing folks turn up close to their vehicles (500 yards or so) but significantly off route most likely in an attempt to take a shortcut. This would be another excellent option for folks to consider searching.

This triggers a thought:
On the Divide Trail, just on the north side of Mt Peeley, about where "DIVIDE" appears on the My Topo map, there is a very short (couple of yards) section below a rock cliff that has eroded badly. When I was there in May it was grown up to brush. This spot is the top of a chute, where if someone slipped it would be a bad slide down the mountain.

[tibber]

Payson Roundup
Search for missing hiker called off

By Alexis Bechman

November 23, 2010

The search for a 68-year-old Mesa man known by bloggers as “GPS Joe” has been called off after a week of intensive searching turned up nothing.

Maricopa and Gila County rescue crews covered roughly 10 square miles around Sheep Mountain last week after Joe Domin was reported missing by several of his hiking friends Nov. 15, said Bill Pitterle, leader of the local Tonto Rim Search and Rescue.

So far, crews have found no sign of Domin’s whereabouts except for his white 4-Runner, parked at the Mt. Peeley trailhead, where he frequently liked to hike.

Domin reportedly left his home on Nov. 8 for a day hike in a remote area west of Mt. Ord and has not been heard from for the last 15 days.

According to blogs on the hiking Web site HikeArizona.com, Domin told no one where he was going. However, when two of his friends, identified as Gabriele and Hank on the site, did not hear from Domin in some time, they went to his home and discovered a three-day-old package on his doorstep.

Gabriele and Hank wrote it was unusual for Domin to leave a package sitting and contacted the Gila County Sheriff’s Office.

Hank told authorities that Domin might be hiking near Sheep Mountain, since he was reportedly trying to find an off trail route to the summit.

Hank wrote it was Domin’s fourth attempt at reaching the summit since the autumn of 2009.

In a blog entry Domin wrote on the site in April of 2010, he said, “I made another unsuccessful attempt to reach Sheep Mountain.

“What does me in on this hike is not the terrain but rather the low vegetation — manzanita, cactus, other stuff.

“You need to be a little crazy to try this one, but I know there are some crazies out there.”

Acting on Hank’s hunch, a sheriff’s deputy drove down Forest Service Road 201 and found Domin’s vehicle parked at the trailhead.

For the past week, some 25 searchers combed the extremely rugged area in and around Sheep Mountain.

Several searchers were airlifted to the top of the mountain while others hiked around the base. Dogs and horses were brought in, but no clues to Domin’s whereabouts were found.

The Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office Mountain Rescue/Central Arizona Mountain Rescue Association is in charge of the search.

On Sunday, the search was suspended indefinitely.

“We have applied as much resources as we can in that tough country,” Pitterle said.

The terrain has worn out seasoned searchers in a matter of days, Pitterle said.

Although the official search has been called off, Pitterle said smaller crews would continue searching on their own.

Originally published at: http://www.paysonroundup.com/news/2010/ ... er-called/

http://www.paysonroundup.com/news/2010/ ... er-called/

[Alston_Neal]

I posted a link to this thread on the Arizona FJ forum. Today it was pointed out that there was a need to have 4X4s that could get further back in to take hikers. Well some folks over there are offering to take people in. All they need to know is where and when.
http://azfj.org/index.php?name=Forums&f ... 6351#76351

[Grasshopper]

I have been reminded via PM that many missing folks turn up close to their vehicles (500 yards or so) but significantly off route most likely in an attempt to take a shortcut. This would be another excellent option for folks to consider searching.

See "theBrayer" recent post on nonot's upcoming backpack trip forum topic.. I suggest you contact him and just confirm your concerns since I recall he said he planned to drive up to Peeley TH late morning on Friday to search the immediate area? Thx

[MtnResq30]

HAZ:
I have received a number of requests to post the segments that Mountain Rescue has searched during the mission to locate Mr. Domin. Perhaps I can provide some insight based upon the information that you all have posted over the last week.
As many of you have discovered, this area presents considerable challenges to the hiker and the searcher. As a hiker, this area is rugged, steep and unless you stay on the limited trails, is wrought with inhospitable terrain and brutal vegetation. To the searcher, the environmental complexity grows exponentially as this requires operating at a high level to travel safely while being an effective search resource. A job easier said than done.
The posts in this forum have been impressive and, for many, quite accurate. Many of you have made many relatively accurate assumptions regarding his probable intentions and his probably route. These are accurate only if your assumptions correctly identified his probable intentions and his probable route. Since his situation was discovered by a concerned friend several days after his hike began, this is the only information that you have to commence solving the classic mystery of searching for a lost person.
When searching for someone who is most likely immobile and unresponsive the rule of probability continues. We have been asked to provide information regarding where we searched, but knowing this specific area is truly of little value as you continue to search. Allow me to decipher the meaning of that statement. Because no one knows for certain where Mr. Domin intended to hike, nor the specific route he intended to hike, an assumption must be based on the information that you have, which is the GPS data and forum posts from previous hikes. If he was unsuccessful in reaching his goal by way of these previous routes, it is probable that he intended to hike another route, or perhaps, hike a completely different trail. Which do you choose? Let’s say that you decide that he made another go for Sheep Mountain, you can determine the route/area with the highest probability because you know that some areas are less probable than others and you can’t search them all due to terrain and vegetation. Now you have determined what we call PoA, or Probability of Area. Next, you must determine the likelihood of actually finding a clue, or finding Mr. Domin, in a certain area. This is PoD or Probability of Detection. For those who have actually been in the area, based upon your comments in this forum, you have determined that it is very challenging to see anything in the Manzanita and on the slopes of the mountain, thus the PoD is very low. To know where we have searched may lead you to believe that there was a high PoD and that Mr. Domin is certainly not there. You also know that to increase your probability you must increase your number of repetitions. If I want to flip a coin and get “heads” 10 times, I know, based upon probability, that I must flip it at least 10 times, but more likely 20 times. There is also the probability that it will take 40 flips. There is also the probability that it could land on its side or never come down. Translation – Mr. Domin could be outside of your probable search area. The probability is low, but it does exist. In reality, you could search an area and be standing right next to, or on top of, a clue and never know it. If you continued, you would think that you have searched an area and that the clue is not there. How many times have you searched for something as easy to find as your car keys, going back to the same location several times and then finally finding them? They did not move, you just did not recognize the clue because of other factors. My point, finding Mr. Domin is challenging, and in reality, may not be a solvable situation. However, the probability also exists that one of you, or Mountain Rescue or TRSAR will find him.
I also wanted to touch on a couple of side topics that were discussed in the forum. One is the use of SPOT or PLB’s while traveling in the backcountry. Many limitations were identified, yet even with these limitations it is my personal opinion that the benefits far outweigh the limitations. Personally, I do not travel in to the backcountry without a SPOT. I find it a useful tool to let my friends and family know that I am ok during a trip and also can ask for assistance if I find myself in a situation that I can’t solve. Anyone could break an ankle or have something else happen. In the backcountry, little problems quickly become big problems and can have a significant impact on your life. Being able to ask for help, when appropriate, can truly be the difference between life and death.
The next topic addresses self-sufficiency in the backcountry. As I mentioned, even a small issue can grow to a big one when in the mountains. The question, how many of you have taken a Wilderness First Aid or Wilderness First Responder class? If you have not, I highly recommend this training. Mountain Rescue offers course throughout the year and could even coordinate a class specific to HAZ.
Finally, I am truly impressed by the concern for Mr. Domin. Your desire to bring him home is amazing and I wish that everyone would put the same energy in to their respective communities. As you continue to search, please remember that your safety should be your primary concern. Don’t let emotion reign over good judgment and sound decision making. Mr. Domin was a very experienced backcountry hiker, proving that anything can happen, even to those with a lot of experience and knowledge. Be sure to file a flight plan before you head out, even on a day hike. Tell someone where you are going, when you will return and don’t deviate from your plan. I have been a backcountry user for 30 plus years, have climbed all over the world and still follow this rule. One day it will save my life.
Respectfully,
David Bremson
Central Arizona Mountain Rescue Association

[imike]

@MtnResq30

Well Stated... and again, thanks for the efforts. Now, it is all about being out there and finding what can be found. thoughts, projections, plans boil down at best to guestimations. We will come across Joe or not. Chances are increased by our efforts and doubling of efforts. I have to believe there will be a fruitful and productive conclusion.

[juliachaos]

@Alston Neal
Thank you. That is wonderful that people on AZFJ are willing to jump in and help.

@MtnResq30
Thank you so much for all the information you've provided, and for your continued support. Your post does a great job of explaining the realistic expectations in such a hostile environment and emphasizes the delicacy of the situation, not only for clues to find Joe, but for our own safety as well. I hope anyone who plans to go out and search for Joe will read and re-read this post and truly take it to heart.

I have not had any wilderness safety training, but would like to express my interest in such a course, especially if one can be coordinated for HAZers.

[JoelHazelton]

I have not had any wilderness safety training, but would like to express my interest in such a course, especially if one can be coordinated for HAZers.

I will absolutely second that.

[cjensen116]

All, I know most of you are concerned about the road conditions and I have been speaking with a couple of the hikers that are attending off line. My husband is going to take a nice Thanksgiving morning drive tomorrow around 7 am up FR201 to the Mt Peely TH and report back the road conditions. I should have a report back to everyone by 11am tomorrow morning.n

[BobP]

Just my thoughts...from some research in Joe's HAZ files and from talking to Hank.
Joe is a finisher...he does a hike and finishes it either by hiking it out and back/loop/portions. When he finished something he had no reason to go back unless it was a cool mine or something. He "finished" all the trails near Mt. Peeley TH except his attempt to summit Sheep Mtn. Obviously, there are many ways you can get there and return from. I'd assume he didn't make the summit based on no register paper(unless it was taken). I found a helmet that was in the middle of nasty manzanita only because of the color(bright yellow). I placed it on my water cache to see how far I could see it on the way back. It stood out. If your out there and you can...wear bright colors and a hat sometimes thats all your partner will see. Be safe.

[azdesertfather]

Thanks MtnResq30 for your comments!

Next, you must determine the likelihood of actually finding a clue, or finding Mr. Domin, in a certain area. This is PoD or Probability of Detection. For those who have actually been in the area, based upon your comments in this forum, you have determined that it is very challenging to see anything in the Manzanita and on the slopes of the mountain, thus the PoD is very low.

In reality, you could search an area and be standing right next to, or on top of, a clue and never know it. If you continued, you would think that you have searched an area and that the clue is not there. How many times have you searched for something as easy to find as your car keys, going back to the same location several times and then finally finding them? They did not move, you just did not recognize the clue because of other factors.

Does this mean to anyone other than me that we still shouldn't give up on the most probable (and already covered) routes? How much attention should be paid to researching those, as opposed to searching less probable but unsearched ones?